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DVOA on the Colts (week 10)

With a win over the 6th ranked Steelers the Colts have moved up to 11th overall, 10th in weighted DVOA (when early season games are counted less) and 4th in the AFC in both. The Colts success against the #1 D in the league shot their offense up to 6th (4th weighted). The D remains a mediocre 16th. The special teams unit is still bad, but not awful at 24th. The Colts remain one of the 8 most inconsistent teams in the league at 25th in variance.

The offensive jump is almost entirely in the passing game, which is now ranked 6th. The run O remains a slightly above average 13th. Why does DVOA like the Colts run O which ranks dead last in yards per carry and yards per game? It's surprisingly simple actually, the Colts RBs have yet to fumble and have converted 20 of 27 short yardage runs while facing a tough schedule of run Ds (the run game is rated below average without opponent adjustments). They are worst in the league on 1st down, but don't cough up the ball and can move the chains on short yardage.

On defense they hover around average against both the pass and the run. Pass D is ranked 15th and the Run D is 18th.

It's the same new story for the Colts ST unit. Return game and FG/XP bad, kickoff and punt teams good. The Colts have their ST script and are sticking to it. They have the least ST variance in the league.

How big was the Colts win? Last week FO's playoff odds put them at a less than 50-50 shot of making the playoffs. This week? a 24.5% jump to 69.4%. The Colts went from more likely to miss the playoffs to make them to the 4th best bet in the AFC.

The Colts have played the 2nd hardest past schedule in the league by DVOA. They have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule in the league. The Colts offense has faced all 4 of the top defenses (PIT, BAL, TEN, MIN), 4 of the top 5 pass Ds (GB, TEN, PIT, MIN) and the top 3 run Ds (BAL, PIT, CHI)

PS: 7th consecutive post, you think I'm a bit excited after that awesome weekend of football?