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Week 10 Picks

Record is picking winners. The against the spread contest (which I'm winning) is mgrex03's project.

Week 1: 10-6, Week 2: 10-5, Week 3: 11-5, Week 4: 6-7, Week 5: 9-5  Week 6: 9-5, Week 7: 12-2, Week 8: 8-6, Week 9: 10-6

Total 85-47 (64.4%)

85 correct puts me in 4th on Mgrex03's list of experts picking straight up.

I promised that if I was still winning the against the spread contest after week 9 I would add my spread picks with the reasoning. I'm doing it this week and every week that I'm alone in first for the rest of the season.

Broncos +2.5, I think the Broncos are better, FO thinks the Broncos are better, Advanced NFL Stats think the Broncos are better. Their D is bad, but they are going up against a QB making his first start.

Falcons -1, as much as I want Matt Ryan to fail the Falcons are playing well. The Saints have an offense, but that D is still dragging them down below peoples perceptions of how good they are.

Titans -2.5, this line looks so wrong I should probably be on the other side (first rule of picking ATS, you are not smarter than the linesmakers). I just can't do it though. The Bears might be starting Rexy and even with Orton I don't think they are in the same class as the Titans. Advanced NFL stats has the Bears favored, if the gap in DVOA wasn't so big I might have been able to override my gut.

Lions +6.5, Seahawks +8.5Rams +7.5, Raiders +8.5, Chiefs +14.5, Niners +9.5 bad teams get paid too, I've been riding awful teams all season. They'll get blown out occaisonally, and watching their ineptitude prevent them from covering is painful, but the awful teams get written off even with big lines, "oh they suck. I can see them losing by way more than a TD." They don't usually suck that bad though. Who in the world would have thought the defending champs would be taken to OT by the lowly Bengals? Bad teams step up or catch breaks more often then they get blown out.

Packers +2.5 another that just seems wrong. Again Advanced NFL Stats and my head sit on one side with FO and my gut on the other. I guess this week will help me decide those battle in the future.

Bills +3.5  My gut hates this pick, but the line looks wrong and FO/Advanced NFL stats like the Bills so it's 3 to 1

Ravens +1.5 I'm on the Ravens pretty much every week. Their D is excellent and with Flacco playing some mediocre football the O is good enough. The Texans beat up on a series of awful teams then lost to the average one they faced last week.

Colts +2.5 No justifications here. I'm being a homer.

Giants +2.5 Even DVOA which wants to have Andy Reid's baby has the Giants ranked higher. Though with how wrong this line looks and Advanced NFL stats heavily favoring the Eagles I'd pick the other way if I submitting the picks today instead having already done them yesterday.

Straight up winners: Broncos, Falcons, Titans, Jags, Dolphins, Ravens, Packers, Pats, Jets, Panthers, Colts, Chargers, Eagles, Cards.