Last week, the Predictor was 10-6 That puts me at 129-79 on the season, which is 62.0%. Still strong.
Here are the picks for Week 15:
|Win %||Away||Home||Win %|
|32.7%||San Diego||Kansas City||67.3%|
Nideak asked a question last week about where I get the probabilities from, and I didn't see it until today, so I thought I'd answer him here. Basically I've taken every major stat over the past 6 years, created 4 "levels" for each one, and loaded them into a Bayesian Network, created by an algorithm that I don't remember the name of. I then enter in predicted data, which I base off of the prior 7 weeks.
One of the stats loaded into the network is "Winner", so it "knows", based on old data, what has the best chance of winning a game. Once I get all the data in for each of the categories, other than "Winner", I get a probability for each team to win, and that's what I report here.