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Week 14 Picks

Record and picks are picking winners. The against the spread contest is mgrex03's project.

Week 1: 10-6, Week 2: 10-5, Week 3: 11-5, Week 4: 6-7, Week 5: 9-5  Week 6: 9-5, Week 7: 12-2, Week 8: 8-6, Week 910-4, Week 10: 12-2, Week 11: 11-4-1, Week 12: 10-6, Week 13: 11-5

Total 129-62-1 (67.5%)  ATS 105-87 (54.7%)

Chargers over Raiders, The defensive collapse of the Chargers (5th to 26th in DVOA, 2nd to 25th in DVOA vs the pass) shows what happens when you lose your top pass rushing and your previous defensive success was built on an unsustainably high interception %. But the Raiders really suck. Their best player is both easily avoidable and was beaten last week. Nnamdi Asomugha has shut down everyone that has been matched up on him for nearly two years. Then the Raiders put him on Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez flat out outmuscled Asomugha. A great "blueprint" for stripping the Raiders of their one real outstanding weapon except Asomugha is 6'2" 210lbs. It takes a TE to outmuscle him.

Sunday picks after the jump

Bears over Jags, The game I get (along with Vikings-Lions) instead of the Colts-Bengals. I'll be scrammbling for an online feed for sure.

Vikings over Lions, 0-16 is coming down to the wire. After the Vikings is the Colts and the dangerous, but underperforming pair of Saints and Packers. Football Outsiders now has it as just under a 50-50 shot (the good news for Lions fans is that the they the Lions a 91% chance of landing the top pick, with Millen out the door they can take a lineman, or quarterback or defender, really anything but adding another reciever.

Colts over Bengals, Ryan Fitzpatrick can run (somewhat countering my theory that especially fast players are often especially dumb) and with Brackett out for sure that leaves the questionable Bob Sanders as the only experienced QB spy. I'm very confident about the Colts chances, but I'd rather not watch effective QB scramble after effective QB scramble.

Giants over Eagles, signs of life from the Eagles. If their remaining schedule wasn't so brutal they'd have a good chance at justifying DVOA's crush on them.

Titans over Browns, There's a point when you just have to go with the Cribbs "Flash Package" every down. I think Ken Dorsey, NFL Starter is that point.

Falcons over Saints. The Saints are playing for their playoff lives, a tough test for the now offically shake n bake endorsed "for real" Falcons

Packers over Texans, The Texans handle their bussiness against very bad teams. They don't blow games that they are expected to win coming in. Unfortunately they aren't expected to win very many.

Dolphins over Bills,

Jets over Niners,

Patriots over Seahawks

You want to know why the AFC East has 0 teams under .500? 8 Games against the NFC/AFC West is a big reason. 8 games, half the schedule against divisions where the leader is both a game over .500 and a game away from clinching the division.

Broncos over Chiefs,

Cardinals over Rams

speaking of the tallest midgets it's the Broncos and Cardinals. Neither of these teams are in the top 6 in their conference, but both are going to host a first round game. That's not right.

Steelers over Cowboys, The Steelers D is impressive. I think we can just tack an extra game onto Romo's impressive streak of game with a turnover right now.

Ravens over Redskins, the Redskins started strong, by playing good defense and not turning the ball over. The D has slipped a bit to 10th in DVOA, but they still have turned the ball very few times. Where was the slippage? It's hidden in Campbell's numbers. He's completing over 60% of his passes and has a 2007 Garrard-esque interception %, but he's taken 32 sacks (4th most in the league) and is 23rd in the league in yards per attempt. He's not turning the ball over because he's throwing dinks and dunks while eatting the ball if no one comes wide open. That's a good way to pad your QB Rating, but not how you win games. In the words of the great prophet Sexy Rexy, "The Dragon...., You gotta unleash the dragon."

Bucs over Panthers, Carolina is living up to the perpetual hype for once, but it's still the Bucs division. If the Panthers want it they have to take it from them this week. A loss puts them 1.5 back with 3 to play.