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Colts Big Favorite in Week 1

Now that the draft is over, Vegas has wasted no time in putting up its opening lines for the Week 1 games.  There are a few surprises, such as:

  • New Orleans a 3.5 point favorite over division champion Tampa Bay.  Vegas basically thinks these teams are virtually even, since the home team nominally has a 3 point advantage.  They must think Garcia won't be signed, because I can't see NO winning this game.
  • Baltimore pickem with Cincinnati at home.  Baltimore was all sorts of bad last season, especially in the division. 
  • Green Bay -3 at home vs. the Vikings.  Did they forget that Favre retired?  Sure there will be lots of hoopla surrounding the retirement of his #4, but Minnesota is clearly the better team, even with Favre.

The biggest line is, obviously, the greatest team of all-time AFC Champion New England Patriots, at -15.5 at home vs. Kansas City.  They're covering easily.

The Colts are a healthy 9 point favorite in their game with the Bears.  In the past 5 years, only once have they lost against the spread to a Non-Division team (Browns in 2005) in September.  They've only lost once period in September since 2003 (Vanderjagt's shank would have forced OT in Foxboro).  We'll obviously have much more to say as we get closer to September, but if I had to lay a bet down today, I think we'll cover, and hit the over of 44.5.

Tomorrow, I'll cover how I will bet on the colts this weekend...