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The Predictor is (initially) done

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Remember back 2 months ago when I asked for some help with a class project?  After following the exact same path as before, I procrastinated my way into a couple of late nights this week to complete my project.  This is definitely a first cut at this, with many improvements to be made before the season starts.  I'll give you a few highlights of my findings, with a full report this weekend, after I've actually written my report for class.

  • I used 2003-2006 stats as the basis of my model.  I then predicted 2007 based on probabilities found in the previous 4 years.
  • I used an average of the previous 7 weeks data to estimate what each team would do the next week.  Anything beyond 7 weeks was not significant.
  • I used Home/Away, Time of Year, Day of Week, and Opponent Group (Division, Conference, Non-Conference) as my Non-Mathematical stats.   I may try to incorporate weather as well, but did not have time, and only found a site with the information a few days ago.

Here's what I found out from 2007:

  • The Predictor was right 56% of the time, which is great for an initial stab at this.  Anything over 50% was going to be a victory for me.  I'll have all summer to tweak and make it better.
  • It got even better once we exclusively used stats from 2007 (week 7 on).  It was correct 62% of the time at the end of the year.
  • I tested out 4 teams individually:
    • Colts:  7-9  (Lots of room for improvement)
    • Redskins: 11-5 (Only predicted against them 4 times)
    • Giants: 10-6 (Started 1-5, finished 9-1)
    • Patriots: 12-4 (Picked the Colts to beat them, as they should have)
  • The four factors that caused the probability of winning to move the most:
    • Rushing Attempts
    • Rushing Yards
    • Turnovers
    • Time of Possession

Again, I haven't written up the full report yet, which is the project for tomorrow night.  If anyone is interesting in reading it, just shoot me an email.  As I keep updating it throughout the summer, I'll keep you posted on how it is improving.  My goal is 70% before the season starts.