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Notes from PFP 2008

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Great Book. I loved it last year and love the stuff they do all year at FootballOutsiders.com. So far it's everything I expect from the great staff at FO.

Adjusted Games Lost FO's new injury metric ranked the Colts as the most injured team in 2007.

The Colts defense was in the top 10 vs draw plays and play-action last year after being killed by them in previous years. The 2007 Colts faced the most draw plays and 4th most play-action fakes in the league.

Peyton Manning did not throw a single interception to the right side of the field.

The Colts were the only team not to have a sack marked "rusher untouched"

No team in the league had a better DVOA than the 2007 Colts vs deep passes

The Colts D was the best in the league on the road, but mearly average at home.

Aaron Moorehead, Crapthonso Thorpe and Devin Aromashado were all below replacement level.

Moorehead caught only 36% of the passes thrown to him. Ben Utecht and Joseph Addai led the team catching 84%.

Kenton Keith's success rate (% of runs that gain significant yardage towards a first down) was higher than his catch rate (% of time he caught a pass thrown to him)

The Colts worst game overall and on offense was their 3 point win vs Kansas City, worst defensively was week 17 vs Tennesse (DVOA doesn't account for pulled starters)

The Colts best game overall and offensively was their dismantling of Baltimore. Best defensive performance was their regular season loss to San Diego.

The Colts defense was best in the league in "close and late" situations.

245lb DE Robert Mathis was in the top 10 DEs in stop%. 83% of the runs directed at him did not gain significant yards towards a first down. He did worse in the amount of yards given up per run at him, but was still in the top half a DEs ranked.

In 8.5 games Dwight Freeney recorded 4 sacks, 10 QB hits and 7 QB hurries. Mathis was the only other player to reach the QB at least 5 times (6.5 sacks, 4 hits, 13 hurries)

Josh Thomas and Keyunta Dawson were the worst D linemen against the run by a singnificant margin.

Tyjuan Hagler was the Colts best run defending LB. Brackett was the best against the pass.

In very limited time Clint Sessions was phenomenal against the run and awful versus the pass.

The Colts DBs gave up receptions more often than the average team, but gave up very little yardage with both CBs ranking the top 13 in the league in yards allowed per target.

Tim Jennings had nearly identical average yards allowed and a better success rate than Jackson and Hayden.

T.J Rushing's punt returns were the only above average feature of the 2007 Colts special teams.

The Colts are projected to win 9.9 games, but have outperformed their projection each of the last 5 years. (Their system almost always projects regression towards the mean because that's what happens to most teams.)

 

That's all for now. I'll post anything interesting I find in the fantasy projections and research essays later tonight/tomarrow after I finish reading them.