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Shake's Fantasy Rankings

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With the Stampede Blue Shakedown, and New Era Scouting fantasy football league drafts complete I can release my rankings to help anyone drafting in the last week and a half before the opener. Rankings are based off of Pro Football Prospectus' player projections (adjusted in a few places I thought were out of whack) and I recommend using the scarcity and variation study and opportunity cost drafting strategy outlined by Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats.

Based on the scoring used in the New Era Scouting league (most recent draft similar but not identical scoring to the Stampede Blue leagues).

Ranking after the jump.

QBs (broken into a new tier when there is a 5pt drop in projected season total to the next player or 10 point drop from the start of the tier)

  • 1. P Manning
  • 2. Brady
  • 3 Brees
    4McNabb
  • 5 Garrard
    6 Romo
    7 Roethlisb
  • 8 Rodgers
    9 Jackson
    10 Rivers
    11 Palmer
  • 12 Favre
    13 Garcia
    14 Hasselbeck
    15 Anderson
    16 Cutler
    17 Schaub
    18 Bulger
  • 19 Delhomme
    20 E Manning
  • 21 Croyle
  • 22 Kitna
    23 Alex Smith
    24 Pennington
  • 25 Campbell
    26 Russel
    27 Warner
    28 O'Sullivan
    29 Ryan
    30 Young
  • 31 Edwards

Massive Drop-off

  • 32 Orton
    33 Boller

RBs (tiered same as before)

  • 1 Tomlinson
  • 2 Westbrook
  • 3 Peterson
  • 4 Jackson
  • 5 Lynch
  • 6 Addai
    7 Grant
    8 Graham
    9 Jones-Drew
    10 Maroney
  • 11 L Johnson
    12 Jacobs
    13 Portis
    14 McFadden
  • 15 Gore
    16 MBIII
    17 R Brown
    18 Lewis
    19 Mendenhall
  • 20 F Taylor
    21 McGahee
    22 Chris Johns
    23 Parker
  • 24 James
    25 Bush
    26 S Young
    27 T Jones
    28 DeAnglo W
  • 29 L White
    30 C Taylor
  • 31 J Stewart
    32 K Smith
  • 33 J Jones
    34 Forte
  • 35 C Brown
    36 F Jones

Big Drop-Off

  • 37 R Johnson
    38 Norwood
    39 Turner
  • 40 Fargas
    41 Bradshaw
    42 A Green
  • 43 P Thomas

Big Drop-Off

  • 44 Ray Rice
  • 45 R Williams
  • 46 Deuce M
    47 Foster

WRs (Same tiering)

  • 1 R Moss
  • 2 Owens
  • 3 Wayne
    4 A Johnson
  • 5 Burress
    6 Holmes
    7 Colston
  • 8 Edwards
    9 Fitzgerald
    10 C Johns (CIN)
  • 11 A Gonzalez
    12 Galloway
  • 13 S. Smith
    14 Jennings
  • 15 Evans
    16 Berrian
    17 Driver
    18 Welker
    19 White
    20 Harrison
    21 Houshmanzadeh
    22 Holt
    23 R Williams (DET)
  • 24 Marshall
    25 Porter
    26 Boldin
  • 27 Chambers
  • 28 B Johnson
  • 29 S Moss
    30 Bowe
    31 C Johns (DET)
    32 Coles
    33 Ginn
    34 Cotchery
  • 35 Gage
    36 Stallworth
    37 V Jackson
    38 Toomer
    39 Hackett
  • 40 Burleson
    41 Bruce
    42 Ward
    43 J Jones
  • 44 Clayton (BAL)
    45 Mason
    46 L Robinson
  • 47 Crayton
    48 Bennet
    49 R. Williams (TEN)
    50 Rice
    51 Randle El
  • 52 Walker
    53 Booker
    54 Patten
    55 Wilford
  • 56 Gaffney
    57 Hagan
    58 Curry
  • 59 D Williams
    60 Muhammad
    61 Meachem
    62 McCareins
    63 S Smith (NY)
    64 C Taylor
    65 Bryant
  • 66 Branch
    67 Hester
    68 Hardy
  • 69 D Jackson

TEs

  • 1 Gates
  • 2 Witten
    3 Winslow

Big Drop-Off

  • 4 Gonzalez
  • 5 Clark

Big Drop-Off

  • 6 Cooley
  • 7 Daniels
    8 Shockey
    9 H Miller
  • 10 McMichael
    11 Heap
    12 Watson
    13 V Davis
  • 14 D Lee
    15 Crumpler
    16 Olsen
    17 Z Miller
    18 Scheffler
    19 Carlson
  • 20 Shiancoe
    21 Keller
    22 Lewis
    23 LJ Smith
    24 Des Clark
  • 25 Utecht
    26 A Smith
    27 Scaife
    28 King
  • 29 Fasano
    30 Royal
    31 Boss
  • 32 Graham
    33 Pope
    34 Walker
  • 35 F Davis

D/K

  • There really isn't a ton a variance. The value just slowly drops at a pretty consistent rate. I never take a D or Kicker before the 2nd to last round in a draft with no IDPs.

With the projected point totals I got from PFP's projections adapted to the league scoring let me use the strategy Brian Burke talked about in the link above. In each player row in my spreadsheet I have columns that list the dropoff 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 and 14 players down at each position. I estimate the number of players at that position that will be taken at that position before my next pick and look to that column. The player with the biggest dropoff in that column has the best value.

If you want a copy of the spreadsheet I used for the NES draft e-mail me and I'll hook you up (click my name at the top to get to my profile which has my e-mail). And no you can't have the spreadsheet with the PFP projections now. It has my 18 to 88 league rankings and even if I deleted them it would be very quick to rebuild that formula from the projections and league scoring.

As a final note, the projections from Football Outsiders which I used have been far better at predicting declines than calling breakouts. They are the circling vultures on the guys they don't project highly, but their breakout players are hit and miss.

Hopefully this will help a few of you in your late drafts. Good Luck.