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Advanced Stat Rankings Roundup Week 4

DVOA remains impressed with the Colts as opponent adjustments have begun to take effect (but are only at 40% of final strength). The Colts rose from 7th to 4th in total DVOA, remaining 2nd to the Ravens in DAVE (which is now only 40% preseason projection).

The Colts have the top offense and top passing offense in the league according to DVOA, they are ranked 17th in run offense. Breaking down the run O further they have the 23rd highest percent of runs going for longer than 10 yards, they have had runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (stuffed) at the 6th highest rate in the league. On the above average side the Colts run game has had the 13th best power success in the league. In the directional breakdown the Colts have been most successful running between the guards (12th) and behind left tackle (10th), while outside runs (20th left, 23rd right) have been less productive.

On defense the Colts rank 9th overall, 7th against the pass and 20th against the run. Looking at the run D specifically they Colts run D has rarely stopped teams for losses (5th lowest stuffed rate) and is dead last at stopping power situations. On the bright side the Colts run D has adopted the Tampa-2s overall philosophy of "No Big Plays"  with the 13th lowest rate of runs over 10 yards. Directionally there are no surprises. Running up the gut and to the space vacated by the DEs speed rushes yields top 10 successes,  24th, 23rd and 23rd (again) worst in the league. to the outside the run D is tougher. Wide left (defensive right) sitting at 19th against the run and the defensive left above average at 13th.

Looking at individual players DYAR and DVOA tells all you fans out there saying Peyton is on a level rare even for him that your eyes aren't deceiving you. Peyton Manning is on pace for a season that would rank 2nd in the last 17 years in both total production (to Brady's 07) and efficiency (to Peyton's own 04). That's right. Through 4 games Peyton has been more effieicent than 2007 Tom Brady and is on pace for more production that 2004 Peyton Manning. Just WOW.

At runningback Joseph Addai sits at exactly 0 DVOA. His running effieciency has been exactly league average so far this year. His success rate (50%) is 17th in the league, a bit ahead of his DYAR (23rd) and DVOA (22nd) rankings, an effect of Addai's trademark lack of big runs. Donald Brown so far is filtering with a more concerning line of 0 DYAR, with just 2 DYAR to his name (29th) and a negative DVOA (-7.5%, 27th). His success rate also sits at 50%. Donald doesn't appear to be more productive in the run game despite the more pleasant running style, but my impression of him as more boom and bust than Addai is off as well.

The Colts have 2 of the top 10 WRs by DVOA and 3 of the top 25. Ho-hum, nothing new here, but wait...   Along with the great Reggie Wayne (#3 DYAR, #10 DVOA) is Pierre Garcon (#14 DYAR, #7 DVOA) and Austin Collie (#31 DYAR, #25 DVOA)

Last but not least is Dallas Clark. The hero of Miami ranks as the 3rd most productive TE so far this season, with an absurd 79% catch rate. Dallas ranks 2nd in production among AFC TEs, Hawaii here he comes.

Back to the whole team, and into their future. The Colts playoff odds have passed 95%, their odds of winning the division are placed at 83.2%, odds of a bye 64.6%, AFC title odds at 28.6% and the chance of a SB win as 16.4% (highest in the league). The Colts are your FO superbowl favorites.


Advanced NFL Stats keeps the Colts in their top spot with a generic win probability (odds they'd beat an average team on a neutral field) of 85%. The Colts rank as the top offense and the number 7 defense. The Colts rank first (by a massive margin) in pass efficiency, but fifth to last in run efficiency. On defense they rank 4th in pass D and 13th in run D. The Colts have been the 5th least penalized team in the league.