The Colts inefficient passing, combined with the Texans moderate success passing knocked the Colts out of the top spots in Pass O and Pass D efficiency, and thus out of the top spot in Advanced NFL Stats' ratings. The Colts sit behind the Saints at #2 with a 81% chance of beating an average team on a neutral field. The Colts boast the #3 ranked offense and 4th ranked defense along with avoiding mistakes well as evidenced by the 3rd lowest penalty rate, 5th lowest INT rate and 7th lowest fumble rate in the league.
Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) places the Colts as the 4th best team in the league (3rd best by weighted DVOA which decreases the weight of games played early in the season) and 2nd best in the AFC to the Patriots, but with a better chance of making the playoffs, winning the AFC title and winning the Superbowl by virtue of their 2 game lead.
The Colts are projected with a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs, a 76.5% chance of a bye, a 56.8% chance of homefield throughout (#1 seed), a 30.9% chance of an AFC title and Superbowl odds of 16.6%.
The Colts passing O is ranked 3rd and run O at #18 for an overall rating of 5th. They also rate the Colts as one of the 5 least consistent offenses in the league from game to game. On defense the Colts have moved up to 6th overall on the strength of the 5th ranked pass D and despite a 20th ranked run D. The Colts have been the 10th most consistent defense in the league. The headliner of the week is that the Colts have a top 10 special teams unit.
More DVOA after the jump
DVOA does not look kindly on the Colts past schedule of pass Ds knocking Peyton down from first in per play and overall value unadjusted, to 3rd in both with opponent adjustments factored in. DVOA was not overly impressed by Peyton dinking and dunking the Texans last Sunday. He played well, but not on his usual level.
On the runningback side Addai ranks 21st in both per play and total production, well above replacement level but hovering around average efficiency as a runner. His success rate ranks 14th in the league, but his lack of big plays drags up down.
Reggie Wayne ranks as the 3rd most productive WR in the league and sports an impressive 69% catch rate. Collie's rating took a tumble after struggling to reel in a couple passes. He sits at 27th in total production and 25 in efficiency with an above average catch rate of 67%. Garcon continues to fall and now sits just below replacement level and a catch rate barely above 50%. FO's numbers recognize Clark's production as ... productive ranking him #1 in total value among TEs.
The breakdown of the Colts newly top 10 STs is an old story for those that have been following these posts. The Colts kickoff unit has been outstanding ranking the second best in the league and netting the Colts 8.6 points worth of field position, the punt team has been very good, ranking 8th and netting over a FGs worth of value. The kicking and XPs even rank above average. However the Colts return game has cost the Colts over a TD worth of starting field position.
Finally the drive stats where the Colts have the least drives in the league but do a LOT with them. The Colts have the most yards per drive, 2nd most points per drive 2nd most TDs per drive, 5th least turnovers per drive and they do it with an average starting position that ranks 20th in the league (thanks return team).
Friday I'll compare the Colts to the Patriots in an Advanced Stat Roundup Special Patspocalypse Matchup Edition.