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Week 8, Advanced Stat Roundup

We interrupt this injury wave for a look at the stats.

Over at Advanced NFL Stats the Colts remain in the top spot. With the 3rd ranked O, the 8th ranked D and the 4th lowest penalty rate. The Colts still hold onto the top spot in passing efficiency on both O and D. The Colts are given an 86% chance of winning Sunday by their projection.

Our old friend Wolfpack Steelers Fan runs a comparison of the Colts and Saints. He gives a slight edge to the Saints largely on the basis of SOS adjustment and run-pass balance. My two objections are that a significant amount of yardage is hidden from the numbers he uses in the form of penalties, where the Colts are among the cleanest playing teams and the Saints merely average. The second point I'd raise is that pass O and pass D have been shown to have a stronger relationship with winning, than run O and D.

At FO the Colts are one of 5 very good, but not all time great teams in the league this year sitting in the 11th to 25th range in DVOA among the teams of the last 16 years. The Colts are ranked 4th overall, but are given the 2nd best odds of a Superbowl Title and best odds of an AFC Title by virtue of the two game lead they have on the current DVOA favorite, and evil empire New England Patriots.

More with FO after the jump

The Colts took a tumble from their #1 offensive ranking down to third. They still have the top Pass O, but Rushing O slipped backwards to 16th. The Colts made the same 2 spot fall on defense, landing at 10th in the league. The pass D remains among the best at 5th, but the run D has sagged to 23rd in the league.

Bringing up the rear of the Colts units is the Special Teams, not an unusual sight, but the margin is unusually narrow. The Colts special teams are nipping at the top 10s heels despite using Jaime Silva as a punt returner. According to FO's numbers the Colts kickoff units have been the 3rd best in the league, and the punt units 8th. The FG/XPs have even risen to nearly average, thanks to a 4/4 day from Matt Stover. The return units are still poor, but aren't preventing the special teams as a whole to contribute.


You may now resume worrying about all the injuries.