FanPost

First Round Quarterbacks - Stats don't Lie

So after reading about Matt Stafford and how he has already had a few stumbles in training camp (which is expected), it got me to thinking about how often quarterbacks drafted in the first round really succeed.

Of course we all know that it is a rare occurrence that a quarterback comes along and completely destroy opposing defenses, but the temptation to draft quarterback with the talent to do just that is something that many GMs cannot pass up.

Drafting a quarterback in the first round is a bit like gambling. We all compare quarterbacks to the next coming of Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, but most of the time, teams end up with someone more similar to Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler.

So what's the deal? Year after year, why do people continually invest 20+ million dollars in guaranteed money to someone who will not likely be on the team five years from now?

In this article, I will take a look at the odds of drafting a successful quarterback in the first round.

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Eli knows what it's like to feel the pressure. Luckily, he was able to overcome his misfortunes and deal with the stress of being a first round pick.

Since the 1970 AFL-NFL Merger, there have been 78 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

Of these 78 QBs, there are several Hall of Fame candidates such as Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Phil Simms.  But amongst the short line of great QBs is a lonnnnng list of people that either never lived up to their potential (Kerry Collins) and players that just plain stunk (Ryan Leaf).

This is the complete list of QBs drafted in round one from 1970 to 2009 along with team they were drafted by, career completion percentage, QB rating, TD/INT stats, and pro-bowls and Super Bowls won.  (Just so you know, I did not give them the super bowl win if they were a backup).  I also went through and analyzed them and decided whether they were considered a bust or not. I think I was fairly honest about whether or not they are considered a bust, only labeling them that if they never really won consistently or didn't stay with the team for longer than about four or five years.

I also took into consideration many other factors, and I'm sure there may be some disagreement amongst players who are either labeled busts or are not labeled busts, but for the general idea of the article, we are looking merely at the statistics, not individual performances.

Year Name Drafted By QB Rating Comp. % TDs INTs Pass Yards PBs SB Wins Bust?
1970 Terry Bradshaw Steelers 70.9% 51.9% 212 210 27,989 3 4 (2 MVPs) no
1970 Mike Phipps Browns 52.6% 49.2% 55 108 10,566 0 0 yes
1971 Jim Plunkitt Patriots 67.5% 52.5% 164 198 25,882 0 2 (2 MVPs) no
1971 Archie Manning Saints 67.1% 55.2% 125 173 23,911 2 0 no
1971 Dan Pastorini Oilers 59.1% 50.9% 103 161 18,515 1 0 yes
1972 Jerry Tagge Packers 44.2% 48.4% 3 17 1,583 0 0 yes
1972 John Reaves Eagles 51.4% 46.4% 17 34 3,617 0 0 yes
1973 Bert Jones Colts 78.2% 56.1% 124 101 18,190 1 0 no
1975 Steve Bartkowski Falcons 75.4% 55.9% 156 144 24,124 2 0 no
1976 Richard Todd Jets 67.6% 54.3% 124 161 20,610 0 0 yes
1977 Steve Pisarkiewiscz Cardinals 49.4% 44.8% 3 7 804 0 0 yes
1977 Tommy Kramer Vikings 72.8% 55.1% 159 158 24,777 1 0 no
1978 Doug Williams Buccaneers 69.4% 49.5% 100 93 16,998 0 1 (MVP) no
1979 Jack Thompson Bengals 63.4% 53.1% 33 45 5,315 0 0 yes
1979 Phil Simms Giants 78.5% 55.4% 199 157 33,462 2 1 (MVP) no
1979 Steve Fuller Chiefs 70.1% 56.8% 28 41 7,156 0 0 yes
1980 Marc Wilson Raiders 67.7% 52.1% 86 102 14,391 0 0 yes
1980 Mark Malone Steelers 61.9% 50.9% 60 81 10,175 0 0 yes
1981 Rich Campbell Packers 38.8% 45.6% 3 9 386 0 0 yes
1982 Art Schlichter Colts 42.6% 45.0% 3 11 1,006 0 0 yes
1982 Jim McMahon Bears 78.2% 58.0% 100 90 18,148 1 1 (MVP) no
1983 John Elway Colts 79.9% 56.9% 300 226 51,475 9 2 (MVP) no
1983 Todd Blackledge Chiefs 60.2% 48.1% 29 38 5,286 0 0 yes
1983 Jim Kelly Bills 84.4% 60.1% 237 175 35,467 4 0 no
1983 Tony Eason Patriots 79.7% 58.2% 61 51 11,142 0 0 yes
1983 Ken O'Brien Jets 80.4% 58.6% 128 98 25,094 2 0 no
1983 Dan Marino Dolphins 86.4% 59.4% 420 252 61,361 9 0 no
1986 Jim Everett Oilers 78.6% 57.7% 203 175 34,837 1 0 no
1986 Chuck Long Lions 64.5% 54.5% 19 28 3,747 0 0 yes
1987 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers 75.0% 56.5% 275 267 46,233 2 0 no
1987 Kelly Stoufer Cardinals 54.5% 51.5% 7 19 2,333 0 0 yes
1987 Chris Miller Falcons  74.9% 54.6% 123 102 19,230 0 0 yes
1987 Jim Harbaugh Bears 77.6% 58.8% 129 117 26,288 1 0 no
1989 Troy Aikman Cowboys 81.6% 61.5% 164 141 32,945 6 3 (MVP) no
1990 Jeff George Colts 80.4% 57.9% 154 113 27,602 0 0 yes
1990 Andre Ware Lions 63.5% 51.6% 5 8 1,112 0 0 yes
1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks 52.3% 50.0% 2 6 745 0 0 yes
1991 Todd Marinovich Raiders 66.4% 50.7% 8 9 1,345 0 0 yes
1992 David Klinger Bengals 65.1% 54.2% 16 22 3,994 0 0 yes
1992 Tommy Maddox Broncos 72.4% 57.2% 48 54 8,087 0 0 yes
1993 Drew Bledsoe Patriots 77.1% 57.2% 251 206 44,611 4 1 no
1993 Rick Mirer Seahawks 63.5% 53.3% 50 76 11,969 0 0 yes
1994 Heath Shuler Redskins 54.3% 49.2% 15 33 3,691 0 0 yes
1994 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers 70.2% 55.5% 113 129 20,518 1 1 yes
1995 Steve McNair Oilers 82.8% 60.1% 174 119 31,304 3 0 no
1995 Kerry Collins Panthers 73.8% 55.7% 186 179 37,393 2 0 yes
1997 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 29.2% 40.4% 1 4 239 0 0 yes
1998 Peyton Manning Colts 94.7% 64.4% 333 165 45,628 9 1 (MVP) no
1998 Ryan Leaf Chargers 50.0% 48.4% 14 36 3,666 0 0 yes
1999 Tim Couch Browns 75.1% 59.8% 64 67 11,131 0 0 yes
1999 Donovan McNabb Eagles 85.9% 58.9% 194 90 29,320 5 0 no
1999 Akili Smith Bengals 52.8% 46.6% 5 13 2,212 0 0 yes
1999 Daunte Culpepper Vikings 89.0% 31.4% 146 100 23,208 3 0 yes
1999 Cade McNown Bears 67.7% 54.6% 16 19 3,111 0 0 yes
2000 Chad Pennington Jets 90.6% 66.0% 101 62 17,391 0 0 yes
2001 Michael Vick Falcons 75.7% 53.8% 71 52 11,505 3 0 yes
2002 David Carr Texans 74.9% 59.7% 64 70 14,141 0 0 yes
2002 Joey Harrington Lions 69.4% 31.3% 79 85 14,693 0 0 yes
2002 Patrick Ramsey Redskins 74.9% 24.7% 35 30 5,930 0 0 yes
2003 Carson Palmer Bengals 88.9% 63.7% 107 67 15,630 2 0 no
2003 Byron Leftwich Jaguars 80.3% 58.6% 54 38 9,624 0 0 yes
2003 Kyle Boller Ravens 71.9% 56.9% 45 44 7,846 0 0 yes
2003 Rex Grossman Bears 70.2% 54.2% 33 35 6,146 0 0 yes
2004 Eli Manning Chargers 76.1% 55.9% 98 74 14,623 1 1 (MVP) no
2004 Philip Rivers Giants 92.9% 62.3% 78 36 10,697 1 0 no
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 89.4% 62.4% 101 69 14,974 1 2 no
2004 J.P. Losman Bills 75.5% 59.3% 33 34 6,211 0 0 yes
2005 Alex Smith 49ers 63.5% 54.4% 19 31 4,679 0 0 yes
2005 Aaron Rodgers Packers 91.8% 63.2% 29 14 4,367 0 0 no
2005 Jason Campbell Redskins 80.4% 59.7% 35 20 7,242 0 0 maybe
2006 Vince Young Titans 68.8% 57.3% 22 32 4,964 1 0 probably
2006 Matt Leinart Cardinals 71.7% 55.8% 14 17 3,458 0 0 maybe
2006 Jay Cutler Broncos 87.1% 62.5% 54 37 9,024 1 0 no
2007 JaMarcus Russell Raiders 73.9% 53.9% 15 12 2,796 0 0 maybe
2007 Brady Quinn Browns 65.8% 49.5% 2 2 563 0 0 maybe
2008 Matt Ryan  Falcons 87.7% 61.1% 16 11 3,440 0 0 no
2008 Joe Flacco Ravens 80.3% 60.0% 14 12 2,971 0 0 maybe
2009 Matt Stafford Lions ?
2009 Mark Sanchez Jets ?
2009 Josh Freeman Buccaneers ?

 

After analyzing this list, if you do the math, you come up with a success rate of about 35%. THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT!  I don't know about you, but if someone told me that there was a 35% chance my $20 million dollars (or more) would be thrown in the garbage, I think I'd keep it in my pocket.  Of course, we should look at the amount of success quarterbacks selected in the later rounds have before we can do a valid comparison of how much of a bargain it would be.

But the truth is that some GMs are willing to put their money in the pot and bet it all in case he does turn into the next Peyton Manning. Hey, it worked for Bill Polian right?

Best Drafters

1. Colts - Bert Jones, John Elway, and Peyton Manning.  Nuff Said

2. Falcons - If you don't count Michael Vick as a bust (which I did), then they have a success rate of 75%.

Worst Drafters

1. Bengals - The Bengals have wasted selected a QB in the first round of the draft FOUR times since 1970, with only Carson Palmer being worth the investment.

2. Lions - All three first round QBs have floundered in Detroit.  Let's hope Stafford can change their luck.

 

Other Interesting Observations

  • The LA/St. Louis Rams have never selected a QB in the first round.
  • The Detroit Lions have misfired on every first round QB selection.  Statistically speaking, Matt Stafford has to be their successful QB, right?
  • First round QBs don't have much luck in Ohio. Between the Bengals and the Browns, there have been 7 first round QBs drafted since 1970, and so far Carson Palmer is the only one has shown he was worth the investment. (Brady Quinn is still too green to judge).
  • The Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Miami Dolphins have never missed. Troy Aikman, Archie Manning, and Dan Marino remain their only first round QB selections.
  • I hope the Houston Texans learned their lesson after David Carr, they have two or three more bad picks before they should find success. 
  • The NY Giants selected Phil Simms and Philip Rivers in the first round (and traded Rivers for Eli). They could potentially have two hall of fame first round QBs.
  • Only 12 of the first round QBs chosen since 1970 have ever played and won in a Super Bowl. That means only 15% will ever help your team win a Super Bowl. I would be interested in seeing if there are any other positions that would contribute more to winning a Super Bowl.

 

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.