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Week 1 Review - Inside the Numbers

Week 1 is in the books, and Colts Homer and shake n bake both had great write-ups recapping the game.  I'd like to dive a little deeper into the numbers, and see just how well/poorly the Colts played, both on offense and defense.

First off I wanted to bring up some Colts - Jaguars specific stats:

  • Time of Possession was the 4th best since they became division rivals.  33:56 is a far cry from 18:25, which was last year's TOP in Week 3.  It was a pleasant surprise to finally control the clock.
  • Defensively, the Colts only surrendered 12 First Downs, lowest in series history.  Great work by the defense.
  • The Colts defense also forced 4 Three and Outs, tied for most in series history.  Only 1 game last year saw the defense force more Three and Outs (Baltimore).

Also, for the first time since his rookie year, Peyton threw for 300 yards in a season opener.  His rookie debut of 302 yards passing is best in the NFL, with Mark Sanchez's 272 yards on Sunday being the 2nd best of all time.

Throughout the summer, we looked at a myriad of statistics, to find out which ones lead to wins, and which ones don't.  I'd like to look back at how the Colts did in Week 1, in relation to the rest of the league.  I'll also show you in which stats did the Offense and Defense both perform Above Average, and what the record was in the league this week when both sides of the ball are Above Average.  Results after the jump.

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Record
DSR 76.7% 6 61.9% 11 Y 7-0
ANPY/A 6.897 11 3.931 8 Y 9-0
Turnovers 2 15 0 25 N 6-2
Yds/Drive 40.56 6 25.33 12 Y 6-0
ToP/Drive 3:46.2 1 2:53.8 25 N 8-3
Yds/Play 5.214 14 4.145 5 Y 6-2
First Downs/Drive 2.33 4 1.33 10 Y 7-0
3rd/4th Down 50.0% 7 41.2% 19 N 6-1
Avg Start Pos 32.4 8 27.6 9 Y 4-1
3 and Outs 3 4 4 16 Y 3-3
RZ Eff 50.0% 20 71.4% 18 N 4-3
Plays/Drive 7.778 1 6.111 27 N 5-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.243 2 0.436 25 N 5-5
RB Success 41.9% 18 68.0% 31 N 3-6
Yds/Carry 2.29 28 4.38 21 N 4-4
Net Punts Average 44.00 10 36.80 9 Y 1-3


Some thoughts on the numbers:

  • DSR and ANPY/A were far and away the best stats we looked at over the summer, and lived up to it in Week 1, not producing a loser.  The Colts performed Above Average in both categories, so it is not surprising they came out on top.
  • Of the top 7 stats we looked at, the Colts were Above Average on both sides of the ball in 5 of them, which is excellent to see.  The Jaguars can look at whatever they want (like only losing by 2), but they were dominated by the Colts in the areas that matter.
  • The Colts had the best Time of Possession / Drive in the league, going almost 4 minutes per drive.  I'd love for that to continue.
  • Over the past 8 years, the Colts defense ranked 26th in Yards/Play.  This week, they ranked 5th.  Excellent improvement in Week 1, and I'd love for this to continue as well.
  • Net Punting Average is at the bottom of the list, as it doesn't account for what Pat McAfee did on Sunday.  The average doesn't look spectacular, but he pinned the Jaguars inside the 10 twice, with the second one a beauty bouncing straight up at the 2 yard line.
  • The Jaguars were better at both Yards/Carry and RB Success Rate.  Thankfully it is at the bottom of the list, and not at the top.  RB Success Rate being Above Average led to a 3-6 record.  Yikes.