I apologize for this being so late, but I thought since there's a better than minimal chance the Colts will see the Jets again this year, I'd do a writeup.
Last Sunday's game against the Jets was really 2 different games...one with the Colts playing, and one with the Colts "resting". It was a pretty dramatic difference, which is the main reason I've slowly come to terms with the fact that "resting" in the 2nd half isn't the worst thing in the world, especially if the Colts see this team again in a few weeks.
A positive look at the Colts' first loss after the jump...
I want to start by looking at the complete game stats, which aren't very pretty:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 66.7% | 20 | 64.3% | 9 | N | N | 6-0 |
| ANPY/A | 5.206 | 16 | 4.333 | 12 | N | N | 12-1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 18 | 0 | 29 | N | Y | 11-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 23.83 | 25 | 26.64 | 13 | N | N | 5-2 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:14.5 | 30 | 3:00.5 | 23 | N | N | 8-2 |
| Yds/Play | 5.018 | 17 | 4.508 | 10 | N | N | 7-1 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.50 | 21 | 1.55 | 13 | N | N | 5-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 16.7% | 31 | 41.2% | 20 | N | Y | 6-2 |
| Avg Start Pos | 23.7 | 30 | 31.1 | 18 | N | N | 8-2 |
| 3 and Outs | 5 | 24 | 4 | 10 | N | N | 3-1 |
| RZ Eff | 71.4% | 12 | 71.4% | 19 | N | N | 6-1 |
| Plays/Drive | 4.750 | 29 | 5.909 | 20 | N | Y | 4-3 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.263 | 7 | 0.800 | 11 | N | N | 3-0 |
| RB Success | 43.5% | 23 | 55.6% | 25 | N | Y | 2-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.78 | 28 | 4.59 | 24 | N | Y | 5-4 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 41.50 | 10 | 41.00 | 21 | N | N | 4-4 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 25 | 19 | 24 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (480) | 358 | 239 | 349 | ||||
To figure out what the Colts did before "resting", I looked when both sides of the ball had starters missing, which is everything up until Painter's fumble for a TD. This includes a 3 and out by a Painter-led offense. Here's how those stats look, which look pretty good:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 70.8% | 16 | 61.1% | 8 | Y | N | 6-1 |
| ANPY/A | 9.136 | 5 | 4.611 | 12 | Y | N | 12-2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 29 | N | N | 11-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 37.43 | 7 | 23.14 | 6 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:16.4 | 7 | 2:55.3 | 22 | N | N | 8-2 |
| Yds/Play | 6.093 | 8 | 3.951 | 4 | Y | N | 7-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.43 | 6 | 1.57 | 15 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 28.6% | 28 | 36.4% | 13 | N | N | 6-2 |
| Avg Start Pos | 23.1 | 31 | 19.1 | 1 | N | N | 8-2 |
| 3 and Outs | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 | N | N | 3-1 |
| RZ Eff | 71.4% | 12 | 42.9% | 6 | Y | N | 6-2 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.143 | 10 | 5.857 | 20 | N | N | 4-3 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.349 | 10 | 1.268 | 5 | Y | N | 3-1 |
| RB Success | 43.5% | 23 | 52.2% | 22 | N | Y | 2-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.90 | 28 | 3.43 | 7 | N | N | 5-4 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 44.00 | 6 | 41.00 | 21 | N | N | 4-4 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 10 | 10 | 8 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (480) | 96 | 158 | 80 | ||||
Here's why you shouldn't worry:
- Without adjusting for the opponent, the Colts played the 8th best game this past weekend. When adjusting for opponent? 4th best. Anyone you hear saying the game was in question should be shown these stats and proven that they didn't watch the game.
- Take a look at ANPY/A: Peyton Manning did just fine against the best defense in the league in terms of ANPY/A, and Curtis Painter took those fine numbers and made them look bad. It shouldn't be unexpected, but when you just look at the full game stats, it doesn't tell the story of how well Manning did against the Jets defense.
- The same thing could be said about Time of Possession / Drive (1 minute better), Yds / Drive, and Plays / Drive. Any other people want to question Manning for MVP? This makes it very clear his importance.
- Defensively, the biggest difference came in Yards / Carry. The Colts had shut down a pretty run offense, until the 2nd team was playing. Then, all of a sudden, the Jets could run the ball. Again, I'm not worried at all about potentially playing the Jets again.
- The only thing that concerned me was 3rd/4th down conversions, which were pretty bad. Hopefully just a one game lapse, but the Colts can't afford too many games like that.
Here are the season stats with one game to go. No need for commentary, as things changed too much based on bad data:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 78.4% | 1 | Colts | 70.6% | 21 | Jets | 99-9 | 0.917 |
| ANPY/A | 7.436 | 4 | Chargers | 4.811 | 10 | Jets | 124-10 | 0.925 |
| Turnovers | 1.40 | 7 | Packers | 1.73 | 12 | Saints | 109-29 | 0.790 |
| Yds/Drive | 36.94 | 2 | Saints | 31.01 | 22 | Jets | 95-14 | 0.872 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:44.8 | 14 | Bengals | 2:57.7 | 32 | Packers | 104-29 | 0.782 |
| Yds/Play | 6.091 | 3 | Saints | 4.940 | 6 | Jets | 97-18 | 0.843 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.14 | 2 | Patriots | 1.86 | 28 | Jets | 88-23 | 0.793 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 50.5% | 1 | Colts | 44.5% | 29 | Jets | 95-19 | 0.833 |
| Avg Start Pos | 27.6 | 29 | Bears | 28.5 | 11 | Cowboys | 107-36 | 0.748 |
| 3 and Outs | 2.87 | 4 | Cowboys | 3.33 | 24 | Jets | 69-24 | 0.742 |
| RZ Eff | 75.3% | 2 | Cardinals | 62.0% | 14 | Saints | 77-37 | 0.675 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.065 | 4 | Falcons | 6.278 | 32 | Vikings | 77-42 | 0.647 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.572 | 2 | Jaguars | 0.835 | 12 | Lions | 80-42 | 0.656 |
| RB Success | 48.6% | 8 | Patriots | 49.8% | 27 | Vikings | 73-46 | 0.613 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.63 | 30 | Titans | 4.18 | 15 | Ravens | 54-57 | 0.486 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 39.36 | 17 | Raiders | 42.30 | 29 | Patriots | 44-54 | 0.449 |
| Overall | 4 | Saints | 22 | Jets | ||||