2010 Week Eleven: Inside the Colts Numbers

When Shayne Graham hit the 25 yard Field Goal to go up 31-14 with 10:23 to go, I gave the Colts about as much of a chance to come back as I did last year: none.  I really should have learned by this point that the Colts are never out of a game, but I think the Texans game from this year, one of the rare occurrences the Colts weren't close to winning the game, clouded my memory.  I'm glad the Colts didn't give up, even when I left and went to Home Depot.  For the record, I did listen to the game on the way there.

Yesterday I wrote about how it was the correct decision to go for the touchdown (not necessarily on that exact play, but in general), and Elias has my back on why it was the correct decision.  Peyton Manning has now played in 202 games, and this was the first time in his career he's thrown an interception in opponent's territory in the final minute of a game, down by 3 points or less.  That's how truly rare that play was, and why it was absolutely the right decision. to march forward.

Some other statistical notes:

• Elias: Combined with brother Eli Manning's 4 turnovers, Sunday was the first team each Manning brother committed at least 3 turnovers on the same day.  Something I'd like to not repeat again.
• Colts.com: Manning passed Dan Marino on two lists:  Most 4 TD Pass games (22), and most 3 TD games (63).  Manning now sits 2nd on both lists, behind Brett Favre.
• Colts.com: Gijon Robinson caught his first career TD pass, making him the 35th different player to catch a TD pass from Manning.

After the jump we'll dive into the stats. Was it the worst defensive effort of the year?

Non-Adjusted Stats:

Adjusted Stats:

Some thoughts:

• The raw Offensive numbers don't look too bad, but remember, the Patriots had the 2nd worst defense in the league coming into the game, so they really should have looked better than they did.  Turnovers were again the key to this game.  However, this week it was the Colts doing the turning over.  Can't turn the ball over 3 times and expect to win against good teams.  This was the one thing the Patriots defense had been doing semi-consistently, and the Colts played right into it.
• The Drive stats for the Offense where excellent, in the top 5 in pretty much every category.  They kept converting 3rd downs, only had 1 Three and Out, and averaged over 50 yards / drive.  Their ability to move the ball can't be questioned.
• The Defense was atrocious.  I'm going to focus on the Adjusted stats, as the Patriots, according to the Winning Stats, have the best offense in the NFL, so just looking at the raw numbers isn't quite fair.  However, even the adjusted numbers look horrible.  The only positives were not giving up big plays (Yards / Play decent), and forcing the FG in the 4th quarter (too bad they couldn't have done that one other time).
• When the Colts can't get the other team off the field on 3rd down, it almost always spells disaster, which is what happened on Sunday.  It continues the trend on the season on winning and losing based solely on this stat.
• The Run Defense came crashing back to the ground, as two undrafted Free Agents, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, ran all over the Colts defense.  This helped the Patriots Time of Possession / Drive, which was almost 4 minutes / drive.

Adjusted Season Stats through Week 11:

A couple things:

• I think all the injuries to the skill position players are finally catching up with the Passing offense.  The Colts have never been this low in ANPY/A, even when other seasons had injuries as well.  It's a combination of a lack of downfield passing (mostly taken away by defenses) and a lower completion percentage (2nd lowest since 2002).
• The Defense peaked at 12th best just 2 weeks ago, but has fallen 6 spots since then.  They are still very good against the pass (so getting a lead and holding it will still work), and they're still excellent in the Red Zone, but there's not much else to hang your hat on.  They aren't giving up big plays either, but offenses just grind out drives on them.  In some ways, it's a lot more frustrating this way.
• Field Position is still the most telling stat for wins this year, and the Colts are stuck in dead last.  This is as close to a Special teams stat we have to look at, and the Colts are still bad.  Thankfully, next week's opponent, the Chargers, are equally as bad on Special Teams.

Week by Week Analysis:

This week was almost the worst defensive effort of the season, only "bested" by Week 4 against Jacksonville.  Thankfully the offense got back on track after the anomaly of Week 10, but the Home/Away splits on defense are staggering.  My hopeless optimism that they'd play well on Field Turf was clearly wrong.  Winning the division is now the most important thing to focus on, as that gets a home game in the playoffs.  It starts by winning the next 2 at home.