2010 Week Sixteen: Inside the Colts Numbers

Twenty seconds into the game Sunday, the Colts were already playing out of a hole, and I didn't overreact.  We've seen this before, and the Colts have made a living adjusting to what other teams do.  While the other team taking back the opening kickoff is never good, sometimes it's better to get the wake-up call right away, giving Peyton Manning the most amount of time possible.  It seemed to work.

Some notes from the game:

• Colts.com: The Colts rushed for 190 yards Sunday, after rushing for 155 against Jacksonville last week.  It was the first time the Colts had back-to-back 150 yard rushing games since 2006 (hmmm...).  It was also the first time since 2007 that the Colts had more rushing yards than passing yards.  Wouldn't have expected that to happen before the game.
• Colts.com: Reggie Wayne became only the 11th player to have consecutive 100 catch seasons, and only the 7th player with three or more 100 catch seasons.  This just in...he's pretty good.
• Pro-Football-Reference: Manning now sits in 3rd place for most completions in a season with 423, 17 behind Drew Brees's record of 440, set in 2007.  The kicker is Brees has 426 completions this season, so in order for Manning to set the record, he'll need 4 more completions than Brees this week.  What would this record say?  The Colts threw the ball way too much this season.
• CBS: Manning has now tied Gene Upshaw for the most consecutive starts to begin a career with 207.  I think he'll break that record next weekend.
• Elias: Manning's 27 yard naked bootleg was one yard longer than his previous 98 carries combined, dating back to December, 2005.  While I see Manning running this play maybe one more time in his career, it'll now slow down that pursuing DE for half a second, which might give the RB enough to gain a first down.

Time to get to the stats, which look quite nice defensively...

Non-Adjusted Stats:

Adjusted Stats:

Some thoughts:

• For the first time in a while, Turnovers did not kill the Colts.  As you can see, the Colts win was the only one of the weekend where the winning team had 2+ turnovers, while the losing team had 0 or 1.  The Raiders only scored 3 points off the 2 turnovers, a testament to how well the defense played Sunday.
• The Colts struggled throwing the ball, so it made sense that they ran the ball for much of the second half.  Not sure the reasoning, but they just didn't seem that sharp.  Manning has now thrown 14 INTs without Collie in there, and only 3 when Collie was playing.  That's a massive difference.
• Both RB Success Rate and Yards per Carry were great on Sunday for a second straight week.  I'm ok with this continuing, but the passing game will have to be its equal to make any noise going forward.
• The Defense was outstanding.  They forced Three-and-Outs on the Raiders first 3 drives, killing any momentum they might have had after Jacoby Ford's opening kickoff return. They also got them off the field with very few first downs, giving Manning all the time he needed. 
  
• The Colts shut down Darren McFadden, who had 26 of his 45 total rushing yards on one carry.  That seemed to be the only big play of the game as well, which was great against the Raiders, where they specifically look for that big play.
• I mentioned in my preview that the Raiders were the most penalized team in the league, and they lived up to it on Sunday, giving the Colts key first downs on several occasions.

Adjusted Stats through Week 16:

A couple things here:

• The Offense dropped a spot overall, and the Defense dropped two spots despite the great performance.  The actual stat went up for the defense, but other defenses who were close just jumped them.  That's why ranks are sometimes not great to use, but are easy to understand and compare with.
• The story of the season will be ANPY/A, as it is significantly lower than previous seasons.  It, along with Turnovers, are the reason the Colts only have 9 wins right now, rather than 12.  Remember, Interceptions are part of ANPY/A.

Week by Week Analysis:

I asked for a defensive effort that rivaled those first 4 home games, and the Colts obliged.  Three must win games in the bag, only one left to go.  The Colts haven't quit all year, they certainly won't now.