clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Inside the Numbers 2009 - Season Review

New, comments

Throughout the season, we've been looking at the Winning Stats, and how they've played out in each Colts game.  We also looked at the running Season Total, and saw just how well the Offense and Defense were playing.  I hope it gave you some insight into what makes a winning NFL football team, at least statistically.

What I thought I'd do is show you the final numbers from the season, the final Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule, Game by Game rankings for the Colts, and some of the best games by any team in 2009.  One note as well:  These stats include Curtis Painter time, as the Colts weren't the only team to rest starters, so instead of adjusting a whole bunch of games, I just put the actual stats in there.

Let's get to it, as there are quite a few tables after the jump:

Colts Season Stats (including Playoffs):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 77.2% 1 Colts 70.2% 19 Jets 114-10 0.919
ANPY/A 7.099 7 Saints 5.213 11 Bills 135-11 0.925
Turnovers 1.42 5 Chargers 1.63 18 Saints 125-30 0.806
Yds/Drive 35.78 2 Saints 31.46 24 Jets 105-15 0.875
ToP/Drive 2:45.5 15 Steelers 2:57.1 31 Vikings 118-32 0.787
Yds/Play 5.913 5 Saints 5.105 11 Jets 106-21 0.835
First Downs/Drive 2.11 1 Colts 1.81 28 Jets 98-25 0.797
3rd/4th Down 48.0% 2 Dolphins 42.9% 27 Jets 104-23 0.819
Avg Start Pos 27.2 31 Vikings 28.7 11 Cowboys 118-39 0.752
3 and Outs 3.05 5 Cowboys 3.26 31 49ers 79-27 0.745
RZ Eff 75.2% 2 Cardinals 61.2% 8 Saints 85-42 0.669
Plays/Drive 6.051 4 Falcons 6.162 32 Vikings 88-46 0.657
Penalty Yds / Play 0.526 1 Colts 0.810 13 Packers 87-46 0.654
RB Success 46.2% 16 Dolphins 48.4% 23 Eagles 82-51 0.617
Yds/Carry 3.54 30 Titans 4.22 15 Ravens 67-61 0.523
Net Punts Yds/Game 40.39 11 Raiders 42.49 30 Patriots 47-59 0.443
Overall 3 Saints 22 Jets

A few thoughts:

  • Even with the Curtis Painter Experience, the Colts finished 3rd Overall Offensively this season, only behind the Saints and Chargers, in terms of raw numbers.  Before Week 17, the Colts were still #1, which is probably a better measure.
  • There are 2 stats offensively that stick out like a sore thumb:  Avg. Start Pos. and Yds/Carry.  It's not surprising that these two areas should be addressed in the first 3 rounds of the draft.  You can include in the Special Teams Upgrade Needed that the Colts were 3rd worst at Opponents Net Punt Yds.  Please get a returner Polian.
  • The Colts defense was really only above average in one area: Red Zone Efficiency.  The Offense was even better than the defense, which hopefully will continue into next season.
  • The best stat in 2009 in terms of wins was ANPY/A, winning 92.5% of games when both the Offense and Defense go above average.  This also pushes ANPY/A over Drive Success Rate for the best stat, in terms of wins, over the past 9 seasons.
  • Next season you won't be seeing Net Punting Average in the Winning Stats, as you don't win when you do it well.  Actually, I just think there are more, much more important stats that overshadow it.  No reason to skew the results with it.

Power Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team Power Rankings
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Patriots 4 15 5 2 12 1
Packers 6 5 2 8 4 2
Saints 1 12 3 4 13 3
Vikings 5 3 1 7 8 4
Cowboys 7 9 4 5 11 5
Colts 3 22 8 1 25 6
Jets 22 1 11 22 1 7
Ravens 14 4 6 14 3 8
Eagles 18 6 12 15 6 9
Steelers 8 13 7 9 17 10
Chargers 2 23 10 3 28 11
Dolphins 13 18 16 11 15 12
Texans 10 14 9 12 16 13
Falcons 9 27 15 6 27 14
Giants 11 25 18 10 21 15
Panthers 21 11 20 20 5 16
Bengals 17 7 13 16 10 17
Broncos 20 8 14 21 7 18
Cardinals 15 16 17 19 14 19
Redskins 16 21 21 17 19 20
49ers 25 2 19 28 2 21
Titans 19 28 23 18 24 22
Jaguars 12 32 22 13 32 23
Bills 30 10 26 29 9 24
Bears 23 20 24 23 23 25
Buccaneers 31 26 28 26 18 26
Seahawks 24 17 25 24 22 27
Chiefs 28 19 27 30 20 28
Lions 26 30 30 25 30 29
Raiders 32 24 31 32 26 30
Browns 29 29 29 31 29 31
Rams 27 31 32 27 31 32

Even with the last two games, the Colts Opponent-Adjusted Offensive Ranking was still #1, which isn't surprising.  Overall they finished 6th, which isn't too bad with how bad the defense did in these rankings.  Overall the best team, according to the Winning Stats, was the Patriots, which just shows you that stats can never tell the whole story, even though they certainly help explain lots of things.

Strength of Schedule (click on headers to sort):

Team Strength of Schedule
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Buccaneers 3 1 1 3 1 1
Panthers 7 2 2 4 3 2
Dolphins 9 4 3 6 4 3
Lions 4 13 4 14 19 17
Patriots 2 15 5 2 14 5
Giants 11 8 6 9 8 8
Raiders 10 9 7 12 15 12
Bills 17 7 8 8 5 6
Falcons 1 23 9 1 16 4
Jets 28 3 10 21 2 7
Colts 6 19 11 5 21 13
Titans 25 5 12 29 6 14
Cowboys 15 12 13 13 12 10
Bears 8 20 14 18 20 21
Browns 13 14 15 17 18 19
Ravens 26 6 16 31 7 16
Bengals 5 25 17 11 28 20
Eagles 24 11 18 15 10 11
Rams 14 21 19 22 24 25
Saints 18 18 20 10 9 9
Broncos 31 10 21 30 11 18
Chiefs 27 16 22 25 17 22
Vikings 16 27 23 19 27 26
Redskins 30 17 24 20 13 15
Cardinals 22 24 25 27 25 28
Jaguars 20 30 26 16 26 24
Steelers 21 28 27 23 30 29
Chargers 12 31 28 7 31 23
Seahawks 23 29 29 28 29 30
Texans 29 26 30 26 23 27
49ers 32 22 31 32 22 31
Packers 19 32 32 24 32 32

The Colts finished with the 11th toughest schedule, with the offense facing a tougher schedule than the defense.  I like using the Non-Adjusted rankings for this, as it has less theoretical calculations going into it, thus less error.  I think to make it accurate we need to use the raw numbers for it, but I've included the Adjusted SoS as well, in case you're interested.

Game by Game Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Jaguars 106 223 116 206 184 160
2 Dolphins 112 477 323 89 479 279
3 Cardinals 161 99 78 128 113 74
4 Seahawks 17 308 95 24 440 173
5 Titans 60 47 24 91 48 33
7 Rams 16 81 19 61 168 64
8 49ers 253 118 131 138 252 151
9 Texans 160 292 189 149 221 146
10 Patriots 246 327 315 221 150 149
11 Ravens 139 334 206 73 324 144
12 Texans 88 392 209 85 369 184
13 Titans 24 388 161 51 436 200
14 Broncos 301 216 256 250 259 241
15 Jaguars 31 495 259 103 490 308
16 Jets 397 261 386 218 346 275
17 Bills 503 403 505 496 520 529
19 Ravens 269 71 107 187 42 60
20 Jets 72 299 139 17 376 112
21 Saints 47 486 263 34 371 143

I've linked each game's in-depth breakdown for each week, in case you wanted to see more on that game.

The Colts played one great game (Titans), a couple other very good games, and a bunch of above average games that were good enough to win games each and every week.  The Offense was not below average (> 267) in any game except Week 17, once you adjust for the Opponent.  Very consistent, which is good in today's NFL.

Best Individual Game Performance (anything in red means one of multiple games):

Statistic Offense Defense
Best Team Opponent Best Team Opponent
DSR 92.5% Steelers Chargers 28.6% 49ers Rams
ANPY/A 19.458 Saints Patriots -6.929 Patriots Titans
Turnovers 0.00 Broncos Bengals 7.00 Eagles Panthers
Yds/Drive 62.13 Steelers Chargers 7.20 Jets Bengals
ToP/Drive 5:38.4 Dolphins Colts 1:25.8 Cardinals Seahawks
Yds/Play 10.171 Colts Dolphins 1.758 49ers Rams
First Downs/Drive 4.00 Steelers Chargers 0.40 49ers Rams
3rd/4th Down 75.0% Chargers Titans 0.0% Packers Lions
Avg Start Pos 53.6 Bears Lions 16.6 Saints Colts
3 and Outs 0.00 Bills Buccaneers 11.00 49ers Rams
RZ Eff 100.0% Bills Patriots 0.0% Bengals Broncos
Plays/Drive 10.500 Dolphins Colts 3.385 Giants Raiders
Penalty Yds / Play 0.000 Patriots Saints 2.574 Ravens Packers
RB Success 75.0% Dolphins Chargers 11.1% Vikings Ravens
Yds/Carry 13.56 Jaguars Titans 0.33 Vikings Seahawks
Net Punts Yds/Game 54.50 Falcons Panthers 10.67 Eagles Giants
Overall Bengals Bears Cardinals Seahawks

The Colts show up on here once Offensively, in Yds/Play against the Dolphins, averaging a First Down on each and every play!  I said it back in Week 2, but that's the best Yds/Play average since 1996!  Pretty amazing stuff.  They do show up thrice on defense as well, thanks to that Dolphins game, and the awful Avg. Start Pos. in the Super Bowl.  Yep, SB XLIV was the worst of the entire year. 

A couple other things:

  • The Steelers dominated the Chargers offensively, yet almost blew the game at the end.  That DSR is pretty amazing.
  • The Saints really did put a beat-down on the Patriots Secondary, much like the Patriots defense put a beat-down on the Titans.  Both of those numbers are mind-boggling to think about.
  • The Lions were the only team this season to not complete a 3rd/4th Down in a game, against the Packers.  The Patriots were the only team to not commit a penalty, although it didn't really help them against the Saints.

Top 10 Games of Season:

Rank Offense Defense Overall
Team Opponent Score Team Opponent Score Team Opponent Score
1 Bengals Bears 45-10 Cardinals Seahawks 27-3 Patriots Titans 59-0
2 Giants Redskins 45-12 Patriots Titans 59-0 Giants Raiders 44-7
3 Patriots Jaguars 35-7 Texans Raiders 29-6 Vikings Giants 44-7
4 Panthers Giants 41-9 Jets Buccaneers 26-3 Giants Buccaneers 24-0
5 Saints Cardinals 45-14 49ers Rams 35-0 Jets Bengals 37-0
6 Chargers Titans 42-17 Patriots Buccaneers 35-7 Vikings Bears 36-10
7 Steelers Chargers 38-28 Jets Bengals 37-0 Packers Browns 31-3
8 Cardinals Packers 51-45 Giants Buccaneers 24-0 Falcons Bills 31-3
9 Vikings Giants 44-7 Falcons Bills 31-3 Ravens Browns 34-3
10 Jets Raiders 38-0 Giants Raiders 44-7 Seahawks Jaguars 41-0

Again, no Colts here, but we knew that already.  Also no surprise the most dominating game this season was the 59-0 drubbing of the Titans by the Patriots.  Two playoff games showed up in the Offensive top 10, with the Saints over the Cardinals, and the Cardinals over the Packers.  That was a little surprising.

Didn't get enough data here?  I've uploaded an Excel file, where you can see how any team did in any game this year, see how teams would have matched up at any point in the season, or see what the Power Rankings / Strength of Schedule was at any point in the season.  You can also see a Game by Game Ranking for any team this year.

I've also updated the Playoff Data that I gave you earlier with the 2009 games.  Let me know if you have any questions.

I have an idea about what I want to look at over the summer, and I'll write something up on it, along with a call for suggestions.  I think you'll like what I'm going to look at.