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Predicting Records: Scoring 2009

It's the post draft drag to Training Camp, that means it's time for my 4th annual attempt to subjectively predict the win-loss record of each team in the league. A more in-depth description of the method was posted last year, here, but in short I rate every game on the NFL schedule on a 7 point scale of "how likely is it the home team wins?". The full season results are then translated into records.

Here are the recaps for 2008 and 2007 and before I get a start on next years predictions I need to score 2009. Last time I showed some progress, moving from an average error of 3.4 games my first year, to 2.9 games in 2008 (just barely off the pace of the predictions made by my beloved Outsiders at about the same time). I'm hoping for a continued move in the right direction with last years predictions.

The Hits:

  • New England Patriots: predicted 10-6, were 10-6
  • Miami Dolphins: predicted 7-9, were 7-9
  • Buffalo Bills: predicted 6-10, were 6-10
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: predicted 7-9, were 7-9
  • Philadelphia Eagles: predicted 11-5, were 11-5
  • Detroit Lions: predicted 2-14, were 2-14
  • Cleveland Browns: predicted 4-12, were 5-11, dif of 1
  • Indianapolis Colts: predicted 13-3, were 14-2, dif of 1
  • Houston Texans: predicted 10-6, were 9-7, dif of 1
  • San Diego Chargers: predicted 12-4, were 13-3, dif of 1
  • Kansas City Chiefs: predicted 5-11, were 4-12, dif of 1
  • Dallas Cowboys: predicted 10-6, were 11-5, dif of 1
  • Green Bay Packers: predicted 10-6, were 11-5, dif of 1
  • Seattle Seahawks: predicted 6-10, were 5-11, dif of 1

Funnily enough the very first comment on my 2009 prediction was a Jags fan

LoL if u think the colts are going 13-3

LoL, indeed. What GoJags4218 apparently knew is that the Colts were to go 14-2! not a lowly 13-3. I had undersold the 2009 Colts.

Ironwind saw no way the Cowboys would make the playoffs, when in fact, I had undersold them as well. They didn't just make the playoffs, they won their division. In his favor he correctly mistrusted Kerry Collins and called 11 wins for the Titans "a feat".

AceOfSpades thought I had underestimated the Patriots and stood with me on my ill-fated Steelers and Titans predictions. In his favor he was less hot on the Ravens, on the same page on the Chargers and was skeptical of the Panthers.

The Misses:

  • Cincinnati Bengals: predicted 4-12, were, 10-6, dif of 6
  • New York Jets: predicted 5-11, were 9-7, dif of 4
  • Baltimore Ravens: predicted 13-3, were 9-7, dif of 4
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: predicted 13-3, were 9-7, dif of 4
  • New York Giants: predicted 12-4, were 8-8, dif of 4
  • New Orleans Saints: predicted 9-7, were 13-3, dif of 4
  • Carolina Panthers: predicted 12-4, were 8-8, dif of 4
  • San Francisco 49ers: predicted 4-12, were 8-8, dif of 4

yellowsnow called me underestimating the eventual NFC Championship game opponents and was much cooler on the Ravens. He did think the Bears could seriously outperform the 9-7 I expected from them though.

peytonsthebest saw the Steelers collapse coming.

Bobman came the closest to contesting what would the be worst prediction of the bunch calling the 5-11 he got for the Bengals in his run of the system "way too low".

In the neighborhood:

  • Arizona Cardinals: predicted 8-8, were 10-6, dif of 2
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: predicted 5-11, were 3-13, dif of 2
  • Atlanta Falcons: predicted 7-9, were 9-7, dif of 2
  • Chicago Bears: predicted 9-7, were 7-9, dif of 2
  • Minnesota Vikings: predicted 10-6, were 12-4, dif of 2
  • Oakland Raiders: predicted 3-13, were 5-11, dif of 2
  • Denver Broncos: predicted 5-11, were 8-8, dif of 3
  • Tennessee Titans: predicted 11-5, were 8-8, dif of 3
  • Washington Redskins: predicted 7-9, were 4-12, dif of 3
  • St. Louis Rams: predicted 4-12, were 1-15, dif of 3

That comes to an average of.... 2.1 games!!! Very happy with that performance, but it sets a high bar to clear this year. I correctly predicted 8 of 12 playoff teams with two of the remaining actual playoff teams predicted over .500. I went 4/8 on division winners.

Coming soon! 2010 predictions and spreadsheet for you to play at home.