One of the things I'm looking at this summer to improve the Winning Stats is further breaking down 3rd Down Conversion Percentage into Rushing and Passing. We've learned that Passing and Rushing are significantly different, in terms of winning games, so it only makes sense that the splitting 3rd Down Conversion Pct. into those two categories may give us a better measurement for winning games.
Our first step in looking into this is to look at the 2009 Colts Offense. Overall, the Colts were 95/193, or 49.2%, best in the NFL. None of you should be surprised by this. But how well did the Colts do when you break it down by category? Follow me after the jump to find out...
Here's a game-by-game breakdown for the Colts Offense in 2009:
| Opponent | Week | Short (1 - 3) | Medium (4 - 7) | Long (8+) | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | Pass | Run | Pass | Run | Pass | ||||||||||||||
| Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | ||
| Jaguars | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.500 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 2 | 4 | 0.500 |
| Dolphins | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 |
| Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 |
| Seahawks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 5 | 6 | 0.833 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 |
| Titans | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 6 | 0.667 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 5 | 0.400 |
| Rams | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 4 | 0.750 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 |
| 49ers | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 6 | 0.333 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 7 | 0.714 |
| Texans | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 6 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Patriots | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 8 | 0.375 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 |
| Ravens | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 |
| Texans | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 |
| Titans | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 6 | 0.833 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 5 | 0.600 |
| Broncos | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 4 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 2 | 6 | 0.333 |
| Jaguars | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 6 | 0.833 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 3 | 4 | 0.750 |
| Jets | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 |
| Bills | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 4 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 |
| Total | 17 | 27 | 0.630 | 19 | 35 | 0.543 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 37 | 64 | 0.578 | 0 | 6 | 0.000 | 22 | 60 | 0.367 | |
| Opponent | Week | Run | Pass | Total | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | Conv | Att | Pct | ||
| Jaguars | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.400 | 6 | 9 | 0.667 | 8 | 14 | 0.571 |
| Dolphins | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 7 | 0.429 | 3 | 7 | 0.429 |
| Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 | 2 | 7 | 0.286 | 3 | 11 | 0.273 |
| Seahawks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 6 | 11 | 0.545 | 8 | 13 | 0.615 |
| Titans | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 6 | 11 | 0.545 | 8 | 14 | 0.571 |
| Rams | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 4 | 8 | 0.500 | 8 | 12 | 0.667 |
| 49ers | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 8 | 17 | 0.471 | 8 | 19 | 0.421 |
| Texans | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 5 | 9 | 0.556 | 6 | 12 | 0.500 |
| Patriots | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 4 | 11 | 0.364 | 5 | 12 | 0.417 |
| Ravens | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 4 | 7 | 0.571 | 5 | 9 | 0.556 |
| Texans | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 2 | 6 | 0.333 | 2 | 6 | 0.333 |
| Titans | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 8 | 12 | 0.667 | 9 | 14 | 0.643 |
| Broncos | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0.667 | 7 | 13 | 0.538 | 9 | 16 | 0.563 |
| Jaguars | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 8 | 11 | 0.727 | 8 | 12 | 0.667 |
| Jets | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 2 | 9 | 0.222 | 2 | 11 | 0.182 |
| Bills | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 11 | 0.273 | 3 | 11 | 0.273 |
| Total | 17 | 34 | 0.500 | 78 | 159 | 0.491 | 95 | 193 | 0.492 | |
Some thoughts:
- Did you know that the Colts were better at running in Short Yardage than passing? Just from watching the games, you don't get that sense at all. However, at a macro level, the Colts were more successful running the ball on 3rd and 3 or shorter.
- The 49ers game is a giant anomaly...5/7 on 3rd and long, but only 1/6 on 3rd and short. That's crazy to think about. I'm guessing we won't see many games like that.
- In 16 games, and 65 opportunities, the Colts ran the ball 1 time on 3rd and Medium. That is way too predictable for my blood. I'm hoping they notice that, and correct it next year.
- The Cardinals game was rather strange too, as the Colts weren't very good on 3rd down at all, but blew them out.
- Overall, the Colts were a little better at running the ball on 3rd down than I expected, and about exactly where I thought they'd be passing the ball. The ratio between run and pass (roughly 80/20) is about what I expected as well. Probably should be around 70/30, but you can't really argue with the results.
Up next we'll look at the 2009 Colts defense, and how well they did against the run and the pass on 3rd down. Unfortunately, it won't be as pretty as this was.