One of the best things that comes out of running all these stats is that I can use them to help me predict games. Eventually, I hope to have it good enough that it can hit 60+% against the spread consistently. Right now, however, it isn't nearly that good. hitting just below 50% last season, after getting 55% correct in 2008.
Each week, I'll give you predictions for each game, including a score and a Probability of Win (not cover the spread). At this point, everything is based on last season, which means the numbers can be a little unpredictable. For example, you'll see below that the Texans are picked to win over the Colts. You can thank Weeks 16 and 17 for that, but that's what happened last year, and it's still included. It also doesn't know about Ben Roethlisberger's womanizing ways, so it has the Steelers winning handily today. It'll work itself out over the next few weeks.
Here are the picks for Week 1. I've included these predictions in the Prediction contest, so you'll see how it does throughout the season:
| Home | Score | Away | Score | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 24 | Vikings | 26 | 59.9% |
| Giants | 24 | Panthers | 23 | 55.7% |
| Bills | 16 | Dolphins | 22 | 87.8% |
| Steelers | 27 | Falcons | 26 | 63.9% |
| Bears | 23 | Lions | 19 | 75.4% |
| Patriots | 27 | Bengals | 21 | 84.9% |
| Buccaneers | 20 | Browns | 19 | 57.1% |
| Jaguars | 23 | Broncos | 26 | 76.7% |
| Texans | 27 | Colts | 26 | 60.7% |
| Titans | 24 | Raiders | 18 | 89.4% |
| Eagles | 19 | Packers | 26 | 91.0% |
| Seahawks | 14 | 49ers | 19 | 83.8% |
| Rams | 16 | Cardinals | 27 | 96.5% |
| Redskins | 21 | Cowboys | 29 | 93.7% |
| Jets | 17 | Ravens | 18 | 51.8% |
| Chiefs | 20 | Chargers | 28 | 93.6% |