Ah, back in my comfort zone, using stats and numbers to make my arguments. I'm not used to writing recaps without the help of numbers, but wrote one yesterday. I talked a lot about the hectic finish to the game, where it looked like a Colts game-winning drive, then looked like a sure Titans win, and ended on the foot of Adam Vinatieri. I held off on the actual numbers, but you get to see them now!
Advanced NFL Stats has a Win Probability function, which bases on historic data, and spits out a win probability after every play. Want to see how it looked? The play before Dominic Rhodes fumbled, the Colts WP was 49%. After Rhodes' fumble -> 19%, a drop of 30% in just one play. Yikes. Before Kerry Collins fumbled, the WP was 25%, and after was 68%, a jump of 43%. That's how big of a play that was.
Some notes from the game:
- Elias: Adam Vinatieri kicked three Field Goals on Sunday all over 40 yards, which is the first time he's kicked 3 over 40 yards in a game in his career. It's also the 10th time he's kicked a game-winning FG in the final 5 seconds of the 4th quarter. I said it yesterday, I had no worries about it splitting the uprights.
- CBS: The Colts have now won 10 games in 9 consecutive seasons, which is second all-time to the 49ers 16 straight seasons. There are 11 franchises that don't have that many 10 win seasons in their entire history.
- Colts.com: The Colts have also made the playoffs for a 9th straight year, tying the NFL record held by the Cowboys from 1975-83. The Cowboys had 2 different QBs (Roger Stauback, Danny White), so Peyton Manning is the only QB to have done this.
- Colts.com: Speaking of #18, he now holds the record for most consecutive starts to begin a career at 208, passing Gene Upshaw.
- Colts.com: Manning also broke his own franchise record for most passing yards in a season (4700), and set an NFL record for most completions in a season with 450, beating out Drew Brees who had 448 this season. Anyone I see using this stat as reason Manning > Brees will be scoffed at. Counting stats are never good comparison statistics.
- Colts.com: Reggie Wayne set a career high for catches with 111 on the season, surpassing his 104 catch season of 2004. Also, with his 69th TD catch, he passed Raymond Berry for 2nd most in franchise history.
Enough of the accolades, let's get to the numbers...
Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 17:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 74.3% | 7 | 67.9% | 19 | Y | N | 8-0 |
| ANPY/A | 7.071 | 9 | 8.250 | 27 | N | N | 11-0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 4 | 1 | 18 | N | N | 10-1 |
| Yds/Drive | 32.55 | 8 | 31.00 | 22 | N | N | 7-2 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:36.6 | 18 | 2:50.6 | 22 | N | N | 5-2 |
| Yds/Play | 5.343 | 10 | 5.328 | 21 | N | N | 8-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.18 | 6 | 1.55 | 19 | Y | N | 5-0 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 36.4% | 14 | 43.8% | 26 | N | Y | 5-3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 25.4 | 25 | 30.5 | 19 | N | N | 8-3 |
| 3 and Outs | 2 | 6 | 4 | 14 | Y | N | 3-2 |
| RZ Eff | 100.0% | 1 | 71.4% | 19 | N | N | 8-2 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.091 | 8 | 5.818 | 19 | N | N | 5-2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.373 | 4 | 0.906 | 6 | Y | N | 2-4 |
| RB Success | 48.0% | 9 | 34.8% | 13 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.04 | 12 | 2.13 | 2 | N | N | 2-3 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 36.80 | 25 | 42.20 | 27 | N | Y | 5-4 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 7 | 21 | 14 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (512) | 156 | 291 | 203 | ||||
Adjusted Stats for Week 17:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 74.9% | 6 | 70.8% | 22 | Y | N | 8-0 |
| ANPY/A | 7.462 | 9 | 8.280 | 28 | N | N | 11-0 |
| Turnovers | 1.3 | 10 | 0.6 | 28 | N | N | 10-1 |
| Yds/Drive | 31.15 | 9 | 32.80 | 28 | N | N | 7-2 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:15.7 | 23 | 3:07.9 | 29 | N | N | 5-2 |
| Yds/Play | 5.742 | 6 | 5.269 | 21 | N | N | 8-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.99 | 5 | 1.76 | 22 | Y | N | 5-0 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 33.6% | 19 | 46.5% | 26 | N | Y | 5-3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 25.7 | 26 | 30.6 | 18 | N | N | 8-3 |
| 3 and Outs | 2 | 6 | 4 | 18 | Y | N | 3-2 |
| RZ Eff | 109.1% | 1 | 75.7% | 22 | N | N | 8-2 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.433 | 18 | 6.189 | 27 | N | N | 5-2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.206 | 3 | 0.570 | 20 | Y | N | 2-4 |
| RB Success | 49.1% | 9 | 41.4% | 15 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.54 | 12 | 2.00 | 2 | N | N | 2-3 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 38.07 | 17 | 40.39 | 21 | N | Y | 5-4 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 7 | 30 | 18 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (512) | 166 | 397 | 299 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- The Colts moved the ball down the field, converting first downs, but did it fairly quickly. They ran the quick no-huddle for a good portion of the first half, as well as the second, so it makes sense.
- The Red Zone offense was a perfect 1-for-1 on the day, so don't get super excited about that stat. All 3 of Vinatieri's FGs were outside the red zone, so it's probably not the best thing that the RZ offense was at 100%, since the drives stalled just outside of it.
- Running game was very good once again, getting almost a 50% Success Rate, and over 4 Yards per Carry (4.5 against an "average" defense).
- The Defense, once again, struggled to stop the Titans offense, putting in the third worst performance of the weekend. The Titans drove up and down the field for the second time this season, and the Colts caught a break when Kenny Britt left with an injury.
- The lone bright spot was in Yards per Carry, where they completely shut down Chris Johnson, which was a pretty common theme for Johnson this season. I know Titans fans liked the fact he got 2000 yards rushing last year, but it absolutely killed him this season.
- Overall, according to the Winning Stats, the Titans outplayed the Colts. It isn't that strange for a team to get outplayed yet still win (see the Saints in NFCCG and that other game two weeks later), but I'd probably agree with the assessment. The Colts stole a win on Sunday.
Adjusted Regular Season Stats:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 75.4% | 3 | Patriots | 69.4% | 17 | Jets | 87-17 | 0.837 |
| ANPY/A | 5.936 | 14 | Patriots | 5.520 | 14 | Packers | 115-15 | 0.885 |
| Turnovers | 1.80 | 16 | Patriots | 1.22 | 29 | Patriots | 130-27 | 0.828 |
| Yds/Drive | 34.66 | 3 | Patriots | 29.80 | 19 | Jets | 93-26 | 0.782 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:49.0 | 11 | Packers | 2:52.0 | 28 | Giants | 102-25 | 0.803 |
| Yds/Play | 5.399 | 12 | Patriots | 5.005 | 10 | Chargers | 84-38 | 0.689 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.11 | 2 | Patriots | 1.73 | 20 | Giants | 86-26 | 0.768 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 44.4% | 5 | Patriots | 38.8% | 16 | Giants | 92-34 | 0.730 |
| Avg Start Pos | 27.7 | 30 | Bears | 30.2 | 15 | Falcons | 119-28 | 0.810 |
| 3 and Outs | 3.02 | 4 | Texans | 4.24 | 10 | Jets | 72-27 | 0.727 |
| RZ Eff | 80.3% | 1 | Colts | 62.3% | 14 | Steelers | 89-33 | 0.730 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.408 | 1 | Colts | 5.841 | 26 | Raiders | 84-35 | 0.706 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.601 | 4 | Dolphins | 0.801 | 13 | Raiders | 62-51 | 0.549 |
| RB Success | 46.2% | 12 | Patriots | 50.2% | 30 | Steelers | 73-46 | 0.613 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.70 | 26 | Eagles | 4.14 | 14 | Steelers | 76-57 | 0.571 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 39.31 | 14 | Cowboys | 40.59 | 29 | Bears | 57-48 | 0.543 |
| Overall | 6 | Patriots | 21 | Jets | ||||
A couple things here:
- The Offense, while still 6th overall in the NFL, definitely took a hit once Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addai went out hurt. The Colts had the best offense in the league before their bye week, and it slowly moved down the list, mostly due to injuries and Manning INTs.
- The Defense ended up about where it has the past 9 years, slightly below average. It had so much promise with a couple of great early games against the Giants and Chiefs, but they slid back to earth. A depleted secondary ultimately did them in.
- The Patriots were tops in 7 of the 8 most important stats. That's quite good.
- The best stat on the season was ANPY/A, followed by Drive Success Rate, Turnovers, and Average Starting Position. The rushing stats performed much better than in previous seasons as well.
Week-by-Week Comparisons:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Texans | 67 | 462 | 266 | 164 | 389 | 290 |
| 2 | Giants | 76 | 41 | 12 | 21 | 29 | 5 |
| 3 | Broncos | 164 | 313 | 226 | 275 | 379 | 372 |
| 4 | Jaguars | 34 | 501 | 295 | 82 | 490 | 325 |
| 5 | Chiefs | 131 | 141 | 73 | 139 | 131 | 74 |
| 6 | Redskins | 227 | 169 | 158 | 208 | 245 | 212 |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||
| 8 | Texans | 65 | 152 | 50 | 152 | 53 | 37 |
| 9 | Eagles | 240 | 419 | 368 | 201 | 349 | 305 |
| 10 | Bengals | 357 | 145 | 237 | 330 | 108 | 186 |
| 11 | Patriots | 72 | 508 | 348 | 60 | 414 | 199 |
| 12 | Chargers | 430 | 308 | 448 | 382 | 210 | 349 |
| 13 | Cowboys | 212 | 435 | 366 | 248 | 403 | 364 |
| 14 | Titans | 42 | 414 | 194 | 43 | 474 | 258 |
| 15 | Jaguars | 173 | 302 | 224 | 277 | 234 | 271 |
| 16 | Raiders | 282 | 85 | 113 | 216 | 115 | 102 |
| 17 | Titans | 156 | 291 | 203 | 166 | 397 | 299 |
That Week 2 game against the Giants ended up being the best of the Colts season, with the Texans and Chiefs game not far behind. The worst game of the year was against the Broncos, even though the Colts ended up winning. I'm pretty sure five 300+ games is a record for the Colts since 2001, but won't verify that until later.