Last Thursday's 19-16 Colts victory over the Texans was the exact opposite of several games we saw the Colts play in this season. Take the Carolina game: From just looking at the stats, the Colts were out played on both sides of the ball, yet had a first and goal from the 3 with a chance to tie the game. It also happened against Tampa Bay and to a lesser extent against the Chiefs, and the better team on the day won the game.
On Thursday night it was the complete opposite. The Colts were the team doing the out-playing, yet the Texans were the ones leading throughout the game, thanks to an opening play fumble by Dan Orlovsky and two easy runs by Arian Foster for a TD. But from that point on it was all Colts, even though the scoreboard didn't show it until there were only 14 seconds remaining in the game. The picture of Reggie Wayne says it all. The Colts deserved the win, for maybe the first time this season, and they got it.
A couple notes from the game:
- Elias: I mentioned this in the recap, as it was also mentioned over and over on the NFL Network during the broadcast, but Thursday was the first time a team with 1 or fewer wins beat a team with 10 or more wins in NFL History. There had been 18 such games previously.
- Elias: With the Colts only getting two field goals in the first half, it was the fourth consecutive game without a first half touchdown, the longest stretch of games without a first half TD since Peyton Manning's first four games in 1998. I hope this ends Sunday against Jacksonville.
Just how good was the performance by the Colts Thursday? Would you believe me if I told you only the Lions played better overall? Check it out...
Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 16:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 69.4% | 15 | 57.7% | 2 | Y | N | 6-1 |
| ANPY/A | 5.568 | 21 | 5.600 | 13 | N | N | 7-0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 10 | 1 | 14 | N | N | 7-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 26.67 | 20 | 23.58 | 9 | N | N | 5-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:44.6 | 13 | 2:15.4 | 6 | N | N | 4-3 |
| Yds/Play | 4.211 | 29 | 5.549 | 16 | N | Y | 5-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.00 | 9 | 1.17 | 2 | Y | N | 4-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 41.2% | 8 | 10.0% | 1 | Y | N | 3-1 |
| Avg Start Pos | 29.2 | 15 | 26.8 | 12 | N | N | 6-2 |
| 3 and Outs | 5 | 23 | 5 | 4 | N | N | 4-1 |
| RZ Eff | 45.7% | 28 | 61.9% | 15 | N | N | 6-1 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.333 | 6 | 4.250 | 2 | Y | N | 3-6 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.461 | 8 | 1.647 | 2 | Y | N | 3-1 |
| RB Success | 25.8% | 31 | 41.9% | 8 | N | N | 1-5 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.97 | 29 | 5.52 | 26 | N | Y | 4-5 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 38.60 | 24 | 38.83 | 10 | N | N | 5-3 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 18 | 4 | 8 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (480) | 269 | 84 | 133 | ||||
Adjusted Stats for Week 16:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 74.1% | 9 | 57.7% | 2 | Y | N | 6-1 |
| ANPY/A | 6.821 | 11 | 4.365 | 9 | N | N | 7-0 |
| Turnovers | 0.9 | 12 | 1.1 | 16 | N | N | 7-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 31.48 | 18 | 21.05 | 4 | N | N | 5-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:55.7 | 8 | 2:02.9 | 3 | N | N | 4-3 |
| Yds/Play | 4.890 | 24 | 5.274 | 13 | N | Y | 5-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.16 | 6 | 1.11 | 2 | Y | N | 4-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 43.8% | 8 | 8.6% | 1 | Y | N | 3-1 |
| Avg Start Pos | 28.8 | 15 | 24.9 | 9 | N | N | 6-2 |
| 3 and Outs | 4.2 | 23 | 5.1 | 6 | N | N | 4-1 |
| RZ Eff | 39.7% | 29 | 68.9% | 16 | N | N | 6-1 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.626 | 5 | 4.094 | 2 | Y | N | 3-6 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.578 | 11 | 1.704 | 1 | Y | N | 3-1 |
| RB Success | 28.4% | 31 | 42.4% | 8 | N | N | 1-5 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.18 | 26 | 5.26 | 26 | N | Y | 4-5 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 37.98 | 23 | 39.84 | 11 | N | N | 5-3 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 12 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (480) | 167 | 43 | 48 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- It was the best defensive performance in the league this week, and 2nd best overall performance. Clearly somebody didn't tell the Colts they were the worst team in the league.
- The defense shut down drive after drive after drive by the Texans, something we rarely saw from the Colts defense even during the 12 win seasons. T.J. Yates really looked like a rookie, and they seemed to only be able to do two things well: Run with Foster and a play-action rollout pass to the Tight End on the first play of each drive, getting 12-15 yards. Thankfully they forgot to run that play at any other times.
- That 3rd/4th Down stat is something to marvel at. If not for a crazy bounce on the Texans' final drive, that number would be negative, as they were just 1/10 for the game. The Colts were magnificent all night.
- The Time of Possession stat is not flipped either, as we've grown accustomed to seeing this season. When the defense gets the other team off the field quickly, the other defense has to be out there a lot more, helping the offense. One side playing well certainly helps the other.
- Foster did have a very high Yards per Carry, but the Success Rate was pretty good by the Colts defense. When Foster got loose, we went for 10-15 yards, but it wasn't often enough to kill the Colts.
- The Colts probably could have put this game away much earlier if they had any success in the Red Zone. Scoring just one touchdown in five trips is how teams can statistically dominate a game, yet barely squeak out a win at the end.
- The running game really regressed Thursday night as well. I'm not sure if the Texans decided to stop the Colts rushing attack and force Orlovsky to beat them, but it certainly could have been the case. Orlovsky was up to the task, and the Colts benefited.
Season Stats through Week 16 (Adjusted):
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 62.1% | 29 | Patriots | 72.4% | 26 | Jets | 93-11 | 0.894 |
| ANPY/A | 4.335 | 27 | Packers | 6.743 | 30 | Lions | 116-19 | 0.859 |
| Turnovers | 1.97 | 23 | 49ers | 1.29 | 28 | 49ers | 105-24 | 0.814 |
| Yds/Drive | 23.65 | 28 | Saints | 30.66 | 22 | Jets | 80-18 | 0.816 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:18.0 | 32 | Steelers | 2:59.0 | 31 | Bears | 105-20 | 0.840 |
| Yds/Play | 4.694 | 27 | Saints | 5.310 | 23 | Ravens | 76-19 | 0.800 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.32 | 31 | Patriots | 1.83 | 25 | Jets | 74-24 | 0.755 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 34.7% | 24 | Saints | 45.2% | 30 | Jets | 92-25 | 0.786 |
| Avg Start Pos | 26.7 | 32 | 49ers | 33.1 | 29 | 49ers | 93-24 | 0.795 |
| 3 and Outs | 5.21 | 30 | Saints | 3.46 | 23 | Bengals | 83-22 | 0.790 |
| RZ Eff | 53.7% | 30 | Lions | 76.5% | 31 | 49ers | 88-34 | 0.721 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.095 | 29 | Saints | 5.735 | 25 | Jets | 63-34 | 0.649 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.544 | 2 | Packers | 0.756 | 28 | Ravens | 63-53 | 0.543 |
| RB Success | 42.5% | 25 | Steelers | 47.9% | 22 | 49ers | 49-63 | 0.438 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.19 | 12 | Panthers | 4.02 | 14 | Dolphins | 55-69 | 0.444 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 38.19 | 18 | Saints | 40.19 | 28 | Bears | 67-41 | 0.620 |
| Overall | 30 | Saints | 30 | Jets | ||||
A couple things here:
- The Colts have moved out of the basement on both the Offense and Defense side of the ball, which is nice to see. They are ahead of the Rams and Jaguars on Offense, and the Chargers and Patriots on Defense. I like it.
- Overall the Colts are still in 32nd, and I'm guessing it'll stay that way even after next week, no matter what happens with the Colts or the Rams. Oh well.
Week by Week Comparison:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Texans | 402 | 364 | 442 | 331 | 323 | 380 |
| 2 | Browns | 379 | 330 | 414 | 430 | 342 | 448 |
| 3 | Steelers | 393 | 269 | 397 | 393 | 132 | 298 |
| 4 | Buccaneers | 340 | 409 | 438 | 417 | 459 | 471 |
| 5 | Chiefs | 141 | 455 | 357 | 120 | 480 | 412 |
| 6 | Bengals | 321 | 329 | 369 | 262 | 396 | 375 |
| 7 | Saints | 432 | 480 | 480 | 448 | 479 | 480 |
| 8 | Titans | 405 | 229 | 378 | 431 | 271 | 425 |
| 9 | Falcons | 471 | 378 | 473 | 471 | 328 | 466 |
| 10 | Jaguars | 463 | 208 | 433 | 447 | 372 | 460 |
| 11 | BYE | ||||||
| 12 | Panthers | 353 | 387 | 432 | 428 | 299 | 429 |
| 13 | Patriots | 46 | 456 | 268 | 85 | 339 | 180 |
| 14 | Ravens | 435 | 403 | 460 | 406 | 402 | 451 |
| 15 | Titans | 374 | 86 | 225 | 404 | 97 | 264 |
| 16 | Texans | 269 | 84 | 133 | 167 | 43 | 48 |
By a ridiculously wide margin, this was the best game the Colts played all season, and I'm really glad it was paid off in a win for the players. There were plenty of games earlier this season that the Colts played horrible, yet still had a chance to win but never did. I'm glad when the reverse happened, they were the ones getting the win in a game they clearly outplayed the Texans.
Two in a row for the Colts, and they finally played a complete game on both sides of the ball, something we've been waiting to see all season. Oh, and the Texans have still never beaten the Colts in Indianapolis. That definitely brings a smile to my face.