2011 NFL Week Seventeen: Inside The Colts Numbers

With everything that has happened with the Colts over the past three days, some people might have forgotten they played a game on Sunday, a 19-13 loss to the Jaguars, cementing the #1 overall seed with a 2-14 record, and we've seen the aftermath since. The loss meant the first time since the AFC South was formed in 2002 that the Colts were swept by an opponent in a season. That's pretty amazing to think about.

There wasn't much I took from the game, other than the players played at maximum effort, which we all expected. The goal-line stand on the opening drive by the Defense, including the absolute stoning of Maurice Jones-Drew by Antoine Bethea that got a standing ovation from my couch, was great to see, as was Robert Mathis just doing what he does, recovering his own strip-sack. It's too bad the Offense couldn't do anything with it. Overall it wasn't their best day (we'll get to the stats in a bit), but those two plays were great to see in a meaningless game.

I also think it's important to recognize Punter Pat McAfee, who set the franchise record for highest punting average at 46.6 yards per punt. What makes what McAfee did even more impressive was that he was forced to punt 88 times, the most for the Colts since their very first season in Indianapolis, 1984, when Rohn Stark punted 98 times. Add in 21 punts downed inside the 20 with only 3 touchbacks, and McAfee was a very nice bright spot for the Colts, no matter what the former Vice Chairman said about him.

Click through to see how the Colts played on Sunday. It's about how you'd expect...

Non-Adjusted Stats from Week 17:

Adjusted Stats from Week 17:

Some thoughts:

• The Colts were in the game Sunday because they held the Jaguars to four Red Zone field goals, something I said was a key before the game. It was also good enough for 6th best in the NFL on Sunday.
• The Defense let the Jaguars stay on the field too long, as witnessed by the five trips into the red zone. Also note that they had the worst field position to start against, starting on average at the Colts 38 yard line. That meant two first downs and they were in Josh Scobee range already. That isn't necessarily on the defense, but just an observation.
• They couldn't stop Jones-Drew, and the stats show it. Several long gashes, like I said there would be, but they couldn't stop him consistently either. Really helped out Blaine Gabbert.
• The Offense, in terms of raw numbers, didn't look so hot, but remember the Jaguars were a top 10 defense, so once we adjusted for that they played very average, which wasn't good enough to win.
• The drive stats were better than I was expecting, as they had fairly long drives, in terms of both time and plays, which was the biggest change we saw from Curtis Painter to Dan Orlovsky. Being top 5 in the league for the week isn't bad either.
• Turnovers killed the Colts, as well as some killer field position. Starting inside the 20 on every drive, on average, isn't the way to win games. That's even with starting at the Jacksonville 36 after the Mathis fumble recovery. It was bad.
• The running game disappeared once again. Not sure why it happened, but I think the Jaguars sold out to stop the run, something other teams hadn't done in 2011, and forced Orlovsky to beat them. It worked.

Season Stats through Week 17 (Adjusted):

A couple things here:

• Want something positive about the 2011 Colts? They were the least penalized team, on a per-play basis, in the league! Huzzah!
• Overall though, they were last in both Offense and Defense after Week 14, and they played well enough to put three teams on each side behind them, including the Patriots Defense, which ranks 30th. Good luck to them winning in the playoffs with that kind of defense.
• Take a look at those winning percentages for the two rushing categories. Teams lost more than they won when they ran the ball well and stopped the run. Why would a team invest a ton of money in a RB again?

Week by Week Comparisons:

The Colts played the two worst defensive games of the season (Chiefs, Saints), and the overall worst game of the season, that 62-7 debacle to the Saints. In hindsight it's pretty clear that the Browns, Buccaneers, and the first Jacksonville games were the ones the Colts could have easily won had they played even mediocre.

I'll post a season review article at some point, but I think I'll wait on it until after the Super Bowl, just in case some team pulls an absolute stinker in the playoffs. You can see the final power rankings and strength of schedule on the Winning Stats page.