THIS SEASON: 45-32*
LAST WEEK: 10-4
COLTS PREDICTIONS: 2-2
The Predictificationer was strong again last week - making it 22-7 over the last two weeks. This week should prove to be more challenging - Packers/Texans, Vikings/Redskins, Giants/49ers, Lions/Eagles, Chiefs/Buccaneers and Rams/Dolphins are just a few of the games that could go either way. Throw in the typical weekly NFL upset and only a true Predictificationist will be able to determine the outcomes... You guys are lucky to have me.
My 'Tommy Boy' quote placed in last week's article got some nice attention... I think each week I will throw in a classic movie quote and see who can find it. Be on the lookout and let me know if you find it.
After the last two weeks, it's getting harder and harder to write the 'Here's Why I'm Dumb' section... here goes.
Here's why I'm a genius:
1) Broncos @ Patriots - I predicted this one would finish up 31-27 in favor of the Patriots... It was 31-21. I was one Willis McGahee fumble away from nearly hitting this one right on the head.
2) Chargers @ Saints - I was one field goal on each side away from nailing this game, too. I said it'd be 34-27... it finished 31-24. You can't fake being this good.
3) Eagles @ Steelers - I said last week that Vick turns the ball over too much and the Steelers would get a boost from the return of Rashard Mendenhall.... 2 for 2.
Here's why I'm dumb:
1) Packers @ Colts - Like any Colts fan, I wanted to pick them last week but emotion is tough to predict. I will say this - I was ridiculed for saying the Colts would put up 27 points... They scored 30. In fairness, I called it closer than about anyone else and nearly nailed the final score (30-27), just reversed, with my 31-27 pick.
2) Cardinals @ Rams - I hadn't picked the Cardinals all year - I finally do, and what happens? Sheesh. You're killing me, Smalls! Note to self: Stick with hating the Cardinals.
3) Seahawks @ Panthers - I've made no secret of the fact that I think Cam Newton is WAAAY overrated. Once again, I went against my gut and picked based on hype. Stupid.
Before we get to the games, here are some other fearless predictions for Week 6:
- Chiefs fans will be unsure if they are supposed to cheer for Brady Quinn or not and will sit there in complete silence.
- Tim Tebow will get some extended playing time against the Colts this week and his passer rating will be 77.7, just better than Mark Sanchez and his 66.6 last week.
- The Eagles/Lions game will feature no less than 7 turnovers, with each team doing everything in their power to fall short of expectations.
- The 49ers are allowing only about 11 points per game (only 1.5 a game over the last 2). The Giants will do better than that.
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3)
The Colts have a real chance to get into the playoff picture with one of the league's easiest schedules - but first, they have to beat the Jets. The Jets are a hot mess right now with no identity - They can't pass. Can't run. Can't stop the run. I believe it was Bill Parcells who said 'If you have two starting quarterbacks, you have none,' and that summarizes the Jets right now. You can't win they way they are rotating the QB position - you need rhythm, you need flow.
The only way this game gets interesting is if the Colts allow big plays on special teams or turn the ball over. If the Colts do well in those two categories they will win the game.
COLTS WIN 20-17
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)
Be honest, as a Colts fan aren't you foaming at the mouth knowing that we get to play the Titans twice? I'm sure Pittsburgh is foaming at the mouth... This should be an easy one for them. The Titans haven't been able to do much this season and are giving up an average of over 36 points per game.... that's not a typo. This is just the kind of medicine the Steelers need after getting beat up a little last week against the Eagles.
This is the lock of the week.
STEELERS WIN 34-13
Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0)
The Raiders are also giving up over 30 points a game... and they're playing the Falcons. Why is this not the lock of the week, you ask? The Falcons have struggled a little recently and the Raiders have enough speed and big play guys to pull of an upset. Will they? I don't think so... smart money is on the Dirty Birds.
FALCONS WIN 34-17
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-5)
If the Browns are going to win a game in the near future, this one may be it - their next five opponents are the Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Cowboys and Steelers. If they lose this week they are going to be staring right down the barrel of 0-11.... Yikes. The sad thing is, I can't pick 'em. The Bengals should win this game - but it will be VERY close, coming down to the fourth quarter.
BENGALS WIN 23-20
St. Louis Rams (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
My gut tells me to pick the Rams - but the stats tell me to pick the Dolphins. Sam Bradford hasn't looked all that good this season (not bad, just not #1 overall pick good) and the Dolphins defense is one of the best in the league. No one is running against them - not even Arian Foster (just 79 yards on 26 carries). If you take away the loss to the Texans, their only two other losses came in overtime. I like the Dolphins here... follow me if you dare.
DOLPHINS WIN 24-17
Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
I think the Lions find a way to win in Philly. I know, that's against the grain a bit - but really, what have the Eagles shown? I think the poop is about to hit the fan in the city of brotherly love. The Lions on the other hand have had an extra week to prepare and right the ship - I'm not selling stock in the Lions yet.
LIONS WIN 27-24
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)
Both of these teams are terrible - I think the Buccs might be a little less terrible on Sunday. The Chiefs will likely call upon Notre Dame grad Brady Quinn (ehh) in relief of the concussed Matt Cassel (gag). The Buccs are coming off a bye week (I didn't even miss them!) and are a little healthier... and are at home.
BUCCANEERS WIN 17-14
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
The Ravens scored just 9 points last week... and won. The Cowboys are struggling on offense (just 16 points per game) and Romo is prone to interceptions when he feels he has to carry the team. The Ravens defense isn't what it used to be - but it is still pretty darn good. Sorry Cowboys... you're about to have a losing record.
RAVENS WIN 27-17
Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)
The Cardinals burned me last week and I tend to hold a grudge. I think this is the week that it all begins to fall apart for the Cardinals and the Bills find a way to win on the road. The other school of thought is that EVERY TIME I've picked against the Cardinals, they've won - so....
BILLS WIN 24-13
New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Hard to believe that the Patriots are 3-2 isn't it? They've seemed awfully dominant over the last few weeks. The Seahawks have been a bit on the lucky side on their way to 3-2 and I don't see them ending Sunday with a win. The Patriots are gaining some swagger and the Seahawks are still getting everything figured out. If you want a reason to like the Seahawks in this game (which I always want a reason to NOT like the Patriots) remember that the Pats will be traveling across the country and Tom Brady has never played a game in Seattle..... that's all I got.
PATRIOTS WIN 34-17
New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1)
The 49ers have looked absolutely dominant over the last two games, outscoring their opponents 79-3. Seems like just the kind of game Eli Manning and the Giants will find a way to win, doesn't it? The 49ers can't keep playing at that pace - it'd be unheard of in the NFL - and I think the Giants find a way to win in San Francisco... WRITE IT DOWN.
GIANTS WIN 27-24
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)
Apparently Robert Griffin III is going to be able to play after being concussed last week - that should help the Redskins. I don't know why I like the Vikings so much... They seem to be riding a pretty decent hot streak and I think RG3 will be a little tentative this week after getting blown up last week.
VIKINGS WIN 27-20
Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)
If this game was in Green Bay I'd take the Packers - but it isn't. This is the kind of game that Texans fans have been waiting for: Sunday Night Football, undefeated season and playing an elite team. The stadium will be loud and the atmosphere will push the Texans to victory. Although, it's hard for me to pick against the Packers and put them at 2-4... Crazy.
TEXANS WIN 34-31
Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2)
This is a HUGE game for both teams even though it is still early in the season. The Chargers could take a two game lead on the Broncos in the division, giving them some early breathing room. The Broncos have had a very difficult early schedule and need to win this game... Badly. Peyton Manning has always struggled against the Chargers and I expect the game to be close. Manning and the Broncos find a way to win it.
Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right when I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - remember, I'm a Predictificationist.
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