2012 NFL Week Six: Inside The Colts Numbers

Sometimes in the NFL, it's best to just forget a game ever happened, as it just isn't indicative of how good or bad a team really is, and Sunday's 35-9 loss to the Jets was just that kind of loss. Nothing seemed to go right, and it was just a perfect storm. Hell, if the 49ers can play as god-awful as they did, at home, I have a hard time lingering too long on the Colts performance Sunday.

The other aberration of Sunday's loss, is how much more important the running game was than the passing game. We'll look at the Winning Stats here shortly, but it was clear early on the Jets were just going to line up and run the ball, challenging the Colts to stop them. As you'll see in the stats, they did just that. Shonn Greene had 161 yards and three touchdowns (all the while sitting on my fantasy bench), which bested the 123 yards rushing he'd had in the last four games combined. It was 2011 bad, something I didn't expect to see this season. I'm sure somebody at some point will point to this game in a "Rushing > Passing" debate, and when they do, I'll give you 100 other games where the opposite is true. It happens sometimes.

Want to know how rare it is to throw so little and win? According to Elias, only once over the past 10 years has a team scored 35+ points while not having a pass to a RB, WR, or TE go longer than 12 yards, which was the longest throw by Mark Sanchez Sunday. The other game? It was the day that Jerome Harrison ran for 286 yards against the Chiefs back in 2009, and Brady Quinn only had 66 yards passing in a 41-34 win. Just a strange, rare day.

We've only got two data points, but the Colts have played their two worst games on the road so far this season, and it isn't really close. Being such a young team it makes sense this is the case, but I didn't expect such a dichotomy. In fact, the Colts are ranked 4th in the NFL at home, but dead last on the road, almost entirely because of the defense. Almost an exact replica of 2010. Something to watch going forward.

Just how bad was this game statistically? The results aren't pretty...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 6:

Adjusted Stats for Week 6:

Some thoughts:

• Are we completely sure this is the same team that beat up on the Packers last week? Man these stats aren't good. I wanted to start with a positive, which only consists of "didn't commit many penalties, while the Jets committed a lot."
• Where did the Offense go wrong? Turnovers were huge, but the biggest thing in my opinion was the awfulness on 3rd/4th Down, something that was heavily in the Colts favor coming in. I didn't watch closely enough to figure out exactly why, but I'm sure the coaches tape might have some answers.
• The Orange Zone and Red Zone were horrific on both sides of the ball, as the Colts failed to score touchdowns, while the Defense was a "perfect" 5 for 5 giving up touchdowns. As you can see by the winning percentages for those two stats, it wasn't a good day to be on the wrong side of those stats.
• The rushing numbers are really, really ugly too. The proof of the strange week continues with the fact that RB Success Rate almost produced the same winning percentage as Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, something that rarely happens. Wacky day for sure.
• Second worst game in the NFL this season, "bested" only by the Titans in Week 2.

Season Stats through Week 6 (Adjusted):

A couple thoughts:

• The Offense is pretty much right at league average in the Drive stats, something I'll gladly take in year one of a rookie QB. They're even pretty good at getting at least one first down, which just means a little extra rest for the Defense.
• Turnovers are still happening way too often, and the Colts are really struggling to score points once they get deep into opponents' territory. I don't know if it is play-calling or execution, but it's something that must be fixed if they expect to win games.
• On Defense they are still tops in the league at forcing Three and Outs, which is nice to see.
• There is a strange combination of stats here, and it all goes back to big plays. The Defense ranks 6th in Time of Possession per Drive, which you'd normally think is good. However, the Drive Success Rate is ranked 26th, meaning teams are converting first downs on them consistently, moving the ball. How can this happen? Yards per Play ranked at 27th, meaning teams just score quicker. Couple that with teams starting on almost the 33 yard line, and it's not a good sign.
• Colts are really struggling forcing turnovers and forcing field goals by their opponents once they get deep into Colts territory. You can see the Orange Zone stat is third-best this season in Winning Percentage, so it's pretty meaningful. Must get that cleaned up.

Week-by-Week Comparisons:

Easily the worst performance of the season, and the second worst performance of any team in the NFL this season. Yep, it was that bad. The great thing is it's only one game, and the Colts get another shot at a win Sunday. Just forget this Sunday ever happened. Sound good to you?