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Thankfully for the Colts, aesthetics don't count for anything in the NFL. Sunday's 17-13 victory over the Browns might not have been pretty to watch, the end result is all that matters for this young team, moving their season record to 3-3.
Due to traveling and family obligations, I only watched a little bit of the game, but had it on in the background and on the radio while driving home from the airport, so I can't give a lot of specific examples from the game Sunday. Of the things I did notice, Will Wolford was very complimentary of the running game Sunday, making a comment in the second quarter about how a 2 yard gain was one of their worst runs of the game, but was for positive yardage. I know how announcers tend to exaggerate things, and sometimes think they see things when they really don't, but as you'll see with the numbers, the ground game for the Colts was really improved this week. Both Vick Ballard and Delone Carter made timely contributions, but my guess is the Offensive Line really improved this week, causing the spike in production. Just a guess though.
Enough also cannot be said about the job Andrew Luck is doing running the Colts Offense. We're all used to seeing the Colts QB covering up gaping holes in the Offense, but it's amazing to see what he can do with such limited resources. Yes the fumble was bad, especially because of when it happened in the game, but ultimately didn't end up hurting the Colts, thanks to a cowardly call by Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmur, which he actually defended later. I'm glad he did, as it clearly was in the Colts favor, and there's hope the Browns new owner could make an example of this, as he was visibly pissed on TV they were punting in that situation. More on why the decision was ridiculous in the stats.
One note about the dueling rookie QBs from Sunday from Elias: It was only the second time in NFL history two rookie QBs both threw at least 25 passes without an interception. Brandon Weeden probably should have had one, if not for Jerraud Powers and Antoine Bethea running into each other, but still worth noting. More talk on the Colts and Turnovers with the stats.
How did the stats look from Sunday? Let's take a look:
Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 7:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 76.7% | 9 | 72.4% | 13 | N | N | 3-2 |
| ANPY/A | 5.406 | 15 | 7.415 | 23 | N | Y | 3-1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 7 | 0 | 21 | N | N | 5-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 35.67 | 11 | 31.90 | 11 | N | N | 3-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:55.7 | 1 | 2:27.9 | 7 | Y | N | 6-2 |
| Yds/Play | 4.652 | 20 | 5.500 | 16 | N | Y | 3-2 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 60.7% | 13 | 100.0% | 25 | N | N | 2-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.33 | 5 | 1.90 | 12 | N | N | 3-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 43.8% | 11 | 42.9% | 13 | N | N | 3-0 |
| Avg Start Pos | 24.1 | 20 | 21.2 | 4 | N | N | 5-1 |
| 3 and Outs | 3 | 11 | 3 | 11 | N | N | 3-1 |
| RZ Eff | 81.0% | 8 | 100.0% | 20 | N | N | 3-1 |
| Plays/Drive | 7.667 | 1 | 5.800 | 9 | N | N | 3-1 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.725 | 13 | 1.293 | 2 | Y | N | 6-1 |
| RB Success | 62.9% | 4 | 37.5% | 5 | Y | N | 2-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.00 | 16 | 3.24 | 7 | N | N | 2-3 |
| Ranking - Week (26) | 9 | 16 | 13 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (208) | 49 | 146 | 95 | ||||
Adjusted Stats for Week 7:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 74.9% | 12 | 81.9% | 24 | N | N | 3-2 |
| ANPY/A | 5.413 | 12 | 8.982 | 24 | N | Y | 3-1 |
| Turnovers | 0.8 | 7 | -0.4 | 26 | N | N | 5-2 |
| Yds/Drive | 33.48 | 14 | 39.03 | 21 | N | N | 3-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:39.2 | 1 | 3:05.6 | 19 | Y | N | 6-2 |
| Yds/Play | 4.629 | 22 | 6.044 | 19 | N | Y | 3-2 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 64.8% | 8 | 95.4% | 26 | N | N | 2-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.19 | 4 | 2.45 | 23 | N | N | 3-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 42.8% | 11 | 50.7% | 21 | N | N | 3-0 |
| Avg Start Pos | 23.3 | 21 | 20.9 | 3 | N | N | 5-1 |
| 3 and Outs | 3.0 | 13 | 1.4 | 24 | N | N | 3-1 |
| RZ Eff | 84.0% | 6 | 105.7% | 25 | N | N | 3-1 |
| Plays/Drive | 7.250 | 1 | 6.636 | 21 | N | N | 3-1 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.601 | 8 | 0.983 | 6 | Y | N | 6-1 |
| RB Success | 60.8% | 6 | 46.1% | 11 | Y | N | 2-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.94 | 18 | 4.31 | 12 | N | N | 2-3 |
| Ranking - Week (26) | 11 | 25 | 20 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (208) | 57 | 198 | 163 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- Long, time-consuming drives were the name of the game for the Colts offense Sunday, nearing taking up four minutes each time they possessed the ball. This make Shurmur's decision to punt with 6:30 to go even more asinine, as before that drive, the Colts would have been over four minutes per drive, on average, against his defense. It's amazing coaches make these kinds of decisions.
- I mentioned the running game above, who had an adjusted RB Success Rate over 60%, 6th in the league this week. Excellent work. The Yards per Carry isn't all that great, but remember a 2 yard run on 3rd, or 4th and short, is much better than 7 yards on 3rd and 9.
- The Colts Offense gave the Colts Defense long fields to try and stop the Browns, as they started their drives, on average, from the 21 yard line. However, all the Browns did was use that extra space to carve up the Colts defense.
- For really the third consecutive week, the Defense was handing out touchdowns every time their opponent crossed their 35 yard line. Usually a team gets stiffer once they have less ground to cover, but the opposite seems true with the Colts. Have no idea why, but it is very concerning.
- The Colts did commit to stopping the run, doing an admirable job there. In doing so, it put their CBs and their LBs into single coverage, and Weeden made them pay. The biggest play was quite the break for the Colts, as Josh Gordon got behind Powers, but flat dropped the ball as he was walking into the end zone. It's hard to know if that would definitely lost the game for the Colts, but it clearly wouldn't have helped.
- This was also a rare game where passing the ball above league average, and defending the pass above league average got you a loss, but it happened to the Browns. On the season, teams are now 48-5 when they do that. I'll certainly take it.
Season Stats through Week 7 (Adjusted):
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 69.7% | 14 | Broncos | 74.9% | 30 | 49ers | 35-7 | 0.833 |
| ANPY/A | 5.815 | 16 | Packers | 7.333 | 29 | Bears | 48-5 | 0.906 |
| Turnovers | 1.71 | 18 | Packers | 0.62 | 32 | Bears | 41-10 | 0.804 |
| Yds/Drive | 29.24 | 16 | Broncos | 30.58 | 22 | Texans | 35-10 | 0.778 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:43.0 | 14 | Steelers | 2:35.0 | 10 | Texans | 43-14 | 0.754 |
| Yds/Play | 5.034 | 24 | Giants | 5.867 | 27 | 49ers | 31-13 | 0.705 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 50.7% | 22 | Packers | 70.0% | 31 | Bears | 41-10 | 0.804 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.74 | 13 | Patriots | 1.71 | 17 | Cardinals | 34-13 | 0.723 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 38.0% | 20 | Steelers | 41.8% | 21 | Texans | 31-17 | 0.646 |
| Avg Start Pos | 27.9 | 29 | Giants | 30.6 | 16 | Broncos | 35-13 | 0.729 |
| 3 and Outs | 3.03 | 7 | Broncos | 4.02 | 11 | Texans | 35-16 | 0.686 |
| RZ Eff | 61.3% | 23 | Packers | 83.6% | 30 | Bears | 35-17 | 0.673 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.915 | 6 | Broncos | 5.310 | 8 | Texans | 32-14 | 0.696 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.696 | 10 | Falcons | 1.187 | 2 | Packers | 30-17 | 0.638 |
| RB Success | 37.9% | 28 | Bills | 49.2% | 27 | Seahawks | 29-35 | 0.453 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.63 | 25 | Redskins | 4.93 | 30 | Buccaneers | 29-25 | 0.537 |
| Overall | 17 | Giants | 29 | Bears | ||||
A couple things:
- The biggest, and most crucial stat in this entire table is the Defensive Turnovers. The Colts have only 3 in six games, which is absolutely dreadful. I don't think it is a lack of taking chances, as seen by their below-average Yards/Play stat, but a little more pointed aggression could probably be done. It's one of the most important things in football at any level. It needs to be corrected.
- The Offense is right around league average, which I'll gladly take at this point in the season. I know they'll keep improving as the year goes on, and these numbers will get better.
Week-by-Week Comparisons:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Bears | 158 | 131 | 173 | 72 | 134 | 91 |
| 2 | Vikings | 107 | 148 | 136 | 120 | 149 | 151 |
| 3 | Jaguars | 86 | 74 | 55 | 129 | 165 | 169 |
| 4 | BYE | ||||||
| 5 | Packers | 100 | 72 | 65 | 74 | 29 | 29 |
| 6 | Jets | 167 | 185 | 199 | 185 | 203 | 207 |
| 7 | Browns | 49 | 146 | 95 | 57 | 198 | 163 |
Sunday was the best the Offense has looked this year, which is great to see. It's also becoming apparent that the Packers game on Defense was a huge outlier, as every other game is in the same ballpark as each other, and not very good. Assuredly the return of Robert Mathis will help, but I have to think it's more than one player making this difference. Either way, it is showing the importance of the guy most people feel needs another All-Pro on the other side of the line to be productive. It's probably not a coincidence the only game they both played the majority of the game was against the Packers.