2012 NFL Week Eight: Inside The Colts Numbers

I don't know if it was the "Over 47" bet I had on the game, but Sunday's 19-13 Colts OT victory over the Titans sure seemed like it should be a lot higher scoring. I kept seeing both offenses move the ball down the field, yet I never saw the scoreboard go up. We'll see in the stats below just how this worked Sunday, but the Colts found just enough points to stay in the game, and ultimately win it in Overtime.

Speaking of that drive in Overtime, it was some of the best Offensive Line domination I've seen from the Colts in a while. To be able to run the ball, seemingly at will, especially that late in the game, is the mark of a winning team. Obviously a chunk of that credit needs to go to Donald Brown, returning from a knee injury, who had 39 yards on the ground on 6 carries, including a 19 yarder straight up the middle. The TD catch and run was spectacular, for sure, but the play call, a screen / swing pass to a RB, is something I've been waiting weeks for, and something we really need to see more often going forward. It'll help slow down the pass rush, which has basically just pinned their ears back on every passing down. Talk about that drive also needs to include mention of Andrew Luck's only other completion on that drive, a 20 yard pass to Reggie Wayne on 3rd and 8, just on the edge of Field Goal range, especially into the win. All sorts of good on this drive.

Sunday's Colts victory also brought us several firsts, including the Colts first road win in 11 games (going back to Week 16, 2010), the first Overtime game this year that had an opening drive touchdown, thus preventing both teams from possessing the ball, and the first road win for Luck, a mark that would have assuredly been continuously brought up had it not happened soon. It was also his third Game-winning drive, and a rather unique one at that. According to Elias, it was only the third time in history a rookie has thrown a TD pass in Overtime, joining Drew Bledsoe to Michael Timpson and Ryan Fitzpatrick to Kevin Curtis. We'll document all of these at some point, as the list of accolades just keeps on growing.

So how did the numbers look on Sunday? Well, one side of the ball played their best game so far this season. I'm sure you can guess which side that is:

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 8:

Adjusted Stats for Week 8:

Some thoughts:

• We'll start on Offense, where once again the Colts took it to an inferior opponent. Drive stats look outstanding, moving the ball at will, converting on 3rd/4th Down, etc. This is the most important thing for an Offense to be able to do. Without it, no points will come. It's great to see this much progress so early on.
• I said earlier we'd see in the stats why the game was low scoring? In what is surely becoming a theme, the Colts just can't find the end zone (last 2 drives notwithstanding). Ranking 24th (out of 28) in Orange Zone Efficiency and 20th in Red Zone Efficiency are the reasons games continue to be so close at the end. Hopefully someone on W. 56th Street notices and they start working on it. It's going to catch up with them eventually.
• Another game, another turnover on what looked like a bad read from Luck on which way Wayne was supposed to go. I think Wayne ran the correct route based on the coverage, but Luck had already thrown to the post, and Michael Griffin made the easy interception. Well, relatively easy, as the Titans had already dropped a sure INT in the end zone earlier in the day. Rookie mistakes. Gotta fight through them.
• The running game, as a whole, was fantastic all day once again, making it two weeks in a row. A 63% Success Rate and five yards per carry? I'll sign up for that every week.
• Let's start with the lone positive of the day for the Defense, and that was in the Red Zone. In fact, it probably allowed the Colts to win the game, so it was fairly important. The Orange Zone was pretty good too, but just a little above average. Hopefully a sign of good things to come.
• On the flip side, over four minutes per drive? The Titans came into the game averaging 2:25 per drive, 25th in the league. Also allowed 47.5 Yards per Drive, almost 8 Plays per Drive, and an 82.2% Drive Success Rate, which is quite bad, especially against a team who ranked 27th in the stat coming in.
• They also let Matt Hasselbeck carve them up, something he couldn't do against either the Steelers or Bills. I won't put it all on the secondary, as Hasselbeck had all day to throw, but the overall Pass Defense really needs to improve.
• Another game without a turnover forced. Eesh.
• There were only 16 total drives in the game, 9 by the Colts and only 7 by the Titans, tied for lowest in the league this year. This is also why the game ended up being so low scoring, my Over bet be damned.

Season Stats through Week 8 (Adjusted):

A couple things:

• Can't complain about the Offense at all. Anything above average with only one legitimate weapon is outstanding. Still need work scoring points, but at least they already know how to get in position to do so.
• I'm not sure what else can be said about the Defense. It's bad. It's not really defensive specific, but the Colts are drawing the most Penalty Yards per Play from their opponents of anyone in the league. I'm sure conspiracy theorists will tell you why that is, but somebody has to be first.

Week-to-Week Comparisons:

The Colts are winning games, which is great, and the Offense seems to be maintaining a high level, but that's three straight stinkers thrown up by the Defense. Hopefully the Defense can pull themselves out of this funk, and there's no better time than this coming Sunday against the Dolphins, a suddenly huge game.