2012 NFL Week Eleven: Inside The Colts Numbers

Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean that really got out of hand fast!

For a while Sunday afternoon it looked like the Colts would be able to go toe-to-toe with the Patriots, jumping out to a 14-7 lead after their first two drives, and the Patriots missed a field goal, giving the Colts the ball back. It looked like the Colts were going to seize control of the game and take a big lead.

Then a simple false start on a Pat McAfee punt, the only penalty called on the Colts the entire night, and everything unraveled from there. A punt return, two interception returns for touchdowns, and an unstoppable Patriot Offense led to a 59-24 laughter, something not many, including me, expected before hand.

There was another moment in the game, with the Colts down just 31-17 midway through the third quarter, when the Colts had 4th and 4 from the NE 39 yard line. Josh already called it 'inexcusable', and it signaled to me that Bruce Arians was more concerned with keeping the game less of a blowout than trying to win. The outcome of the ensuing drive, the only punt by the Patriots all day, is inconsequential. While the Colts chances of winning the game were remote at the time, there were no signs, and the Head Coach should know that his defense had no chance stopping the New England Offense, and he'd have to try and keep up by scoring touchdowns with his much, much better unit. Even though he's only been a head coach for seven games now, he's been around long enough to know when he has to match scores, or else he's losing. It was pretty obvious.

It was the seventh time in Colts franchise history they've given up 50+ points in a game, and the second most in history, behind last year's 62-7 loss to New Orleans. Three of these games have come against the Patriots, but the last one was back in 1984, the Colts first year in Indianapolis. You'll see just what the defensive numbers look like below, and while they were bad, they weren't completely atrocious like last year, as 21 points didn't come from the defense, and another TD came when the Patriots got the ball at the Colts 16 yard line. Even taking all those out, it's still 31 points, and a boatload of yards.

Let's get to the numbers, where we'll try to take a couple silver-linings out of a game we all can immediately forget after today:

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 11:

Adjusted Stats for Week 11:

Some thoughts:

• As pretty much every other Colts game this season, Turnovers decided the game. Unless you are playing against a putrid Offense (like the Cardinals), you can't have a turnover margin of -4 and expect to win the game, especially when two of them are run back for TDs. It was clear Andrew Luck had some trouble gripping the ball on a couple of those plays. Only one game left in the cold, so there won't be much more practice gripping a frozen ball.
• Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Play was also way down, partly attributable to the Interceptions, partly due to the low completion percentage. It's been low all year, and at some point we'll have to look into why that is, because Luck's play would suggest otherwise.
• Third and Fourth Down were excellent again this week, 57.1% (50.4% Adjusted), third best for the week. Unfortunately their opponent was best on the week. That area has really improved for the Colts over the year.
• Orange Zone Efficiency was right around average, which is an improvement, but won't beat a team like the Patriots, who you can't leave points on the field against. The Red Zone was a perfect 2-for-2.
• Running Backs were knocking off big chunks of yards, gaining nearly 5 Yards per Carry. RB Success Rate was good too. They lost by five TDs. FB Robert Hughes did pick up five yards on a 3rd and 1 early on, his only carry of the game, which reminded me of another five run he had two years ago. That one was much more important.
  
• There's not many positives you can pull from the Defense, other than the Raw Numbers look a tiny bit better when put into context and adjusted for the best Offense in the NFL. The Patriots are pretty good at this Offense thing.
• The Defense stopped the Run OK, but most of that was done with the game well in hand by the Patriots, and they knew they could just throw on 3rd and long and convert. Great to see the run stopped, but unfortunately not that imperative to winning games.
• Thanks to the missed field goal by Stephen Gostkowski the Orange Zone and Red Zone numbers look ok for the Defense. Minor win in forcing the FG. More of that please going forward.
• Tom Brady got over 11 yards each time he dropped back to throw Sunday. I can't wait until Andrew Luck can do that with any kind of consistency.
  
• The Defense wasn't as bad as the Chiefs Sunday, if you want some sort of optimism. Still pretty bad however.

Season Stats through Week 11:

A couple things:

• The Colts continue their strong ranking on Offense, especially in the Drive Stats, where a few of them are top 5 in the league. Orange Zone Efficiency and Turnovers are what's holding them back from being in the elite. Not bad for year 1.
• The Defense's slow decline has reached the basement, as they are now ranked dead last in the NFL. We knew it would be a struggle with so many new players, and a brand new scheme, but it shouldn't be this bad. The front office has their work cut out for them.

Week-to-Week Comparisons:

After a week of optimism, the Defense fell right back into its rut, while the Offense really did not play well, despite them being semi-highly ranked for the week. The Colts bounced back beautifully, at least offensively, after the bad Jets loss, so it makes me hopeful it might happen again. We'll all find out Sunday against the Bills.

I now have the updated Winning Stats page up and running, and I'll try to have all the stats updated by this evening. You can also find it from the home page by going to the Library section, as well as final stats from 2010 and 2011. I'll also be including in-depth 3rd Down Stats and Orange/Red Zone numbers this week for full statistical consumption.