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Coming into the 2012 season, Colts fans understood that this year would be a huge learning experience for our favorite team, and we got an excellent example of it Sunday afternoon as the Colts lost to the Jaguars 22-17, in a game eerily similar to the week before.
Last week, the Colts built a 14 point lead in the second half, packed in the offense as the defense let the Vikings tie the game, then Andrew Luck, the Colts Offense, and Adam Vinatieri won the game in the final 30 seconds. This week, the Colts had a big halftime lead, let the Jaguars slowly get back into the game, then in the midst of winning the game, went ultra-conservative once again, kicked the go-ahead field goal with 56 seconds remaining. Want to know how bad this decision was? Check out what Nate Dunlevy had to say. Hopefully a learning experience for the coaching staff. Playing not to lose worked in Week 2, but did not in Week 3, and has been shown over the years to not work in the long run.
What else did the Colts learn in Week 3? They should have learned that they need to stop the "kid gloves" treatment of their franchise QB, as he's already in the top half of QBs in the league, and I firmly believe on Week 1 of next season, he'll easily be in the top 10. When given the opportunity, he's showing just how well he can move the ball down the field, and make every throw he's asked to. Sunday we saw him pull the ball down and scramble, throwing receivers open, rather than the other way around, and again got very little help from his Offensive Line. He also had to deal with some drops by his WRs, but that won't be an every week occurrence. I'm still baffled why the coaches effectively took the ball out of their best players hands at the end, and trusted their Offensive Line and Defense, their two worst units, to win the game. Something just doesn't seem right here.
A note from Elias on that final TD from the Jaguars:
It was the longest game-winning TD ever scored in the last minute of the fourth quarter against the Colts. The previous record was a 75-yard pass from Babe Parilli to Billy Howton for the Packers at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore in 1960.
There is a reason for optimism based on what we saw from the Colts, so let's jump into the numbers:
Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 3:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 71.4% | 16 | 63.0% | 6 | Y | N | 5-2 |
| ANPY/A | 6.696 | 14 | 7.636 | 23 | N | N | 7-0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 7 | 0 | 27 | N | N | 6-4 |
| Yds/Drive | 36.42 | 10 | 27.75 | 9 | Y | N | 6-2 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:42.0 | 12 | 2:18.0 | 6 | N | N | 8-3 |
| Yds/Play | 5.827 | 10 | 6.167 | 26 | N | N | 5-0 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 35.7% | 29 | 42.9% | 5 | N | N | 4-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.92 | 15 | 1.25 | 4 | Y | N | 4-3 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 52.6% | 5 | 30.8% | 10 | Y | N | 3-3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 24.3 | 22 | 24.1 | 9 | N | N | 6-2 |
| 3 and Outs | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | Y | N | 6-3 |
| RZ Eff | 47.6% | 22 | 42.9% | 5 | N | N | 4-5 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.250 | 12 | 4.500 | 2 | Y | N | 4-3 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 1.413 | 28 | 1.241 | 9 | N | N | 4-1 |
| RB Success | 44.0% | 15 | 61.3% | 29 | N | Y | 2-7 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.28 | 15 | 5.78 | 28 | N | N | 5-4 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 11 | 11 | 8 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (96) | 40 | 31 | 31 | ||||
Adjusted Stats for Week 3:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 77.1% | 11 | 68.5% | 12 | Y | N | 5-2 |
| ANPY/A | 7.156 | 14 | 7.789 | 26 | N | N | 7-0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 17 | 0.7 | 27 | N | N | 6-4 |
| Yds/Drive | 37.10 | 8 | 31.38 | 16 | Y | N | 6-2 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:58.1 | 11 | 2:25.5 | 12 | N | N | 8-3 |
| Yds/Play | 5.451 | 15 | 6.667 | 31 | N | N | 5-0 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 57.5% | 17 | 31.7% | 4 | N | N | 4-2 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.15 | 10 | 1.38 | 5 | Y | N | 4-3 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 60.0% | 4 | 40.5% | 12 | Y | N | 3-3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 27.9 | 14 | 26.5 | 14 | N | N | 6-2 |
| 3 and Outs | 0.9 | 3 | 4.0 | 9 | Y | N | 6-3 |
| RZ Eff | 69.5% | 9 | 31.4% | 6 | N | N | 4-5 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.693 | 8 | 4.843 | 4 | Y | N | 4-3 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 1.121 | 20 | 1.404 | 6 | N | N | 4-1 |
| RB Success | 35.5% | 23 | 48.9% | 23 | N | Y | 2-7 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.15 | 16 | 4.66 | 27 | N | N | 5-4 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 11 | 11 | 8 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (96) | 26 | 43 | 27 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- The Colts played in the top 25% of the league on Sunday. Did you expect that? Both the Offense and Defense played equally well, when you look at the entire 60 minutes. Yes, the Defense "lost" the game at the end. But they played well the first 59 minutes.
- On Offense, the Colts moved the ball really well, converting over 50% of their 3rd/4th Downs, had a pretty good Time of Possession per Drive, and had nearly 40 yards per drive. It's a great sign, as that's the prerequisite to scoring points.
- Where the improvement needs to come is actually scoring the points. Not good at all in our Orange Zone Efficiency, and not good in the Red Zone as well. To be fair to the offense, part of that goes on Adam Vinatieri missing an easy FG. But going forward, the Offense should operate by not totally counting on the kicking game.
- The Defense performed really well in the Drive stats, as the Jaguars rarely sustained a drive (just twice). Everything would have been good if they had forced them to drive down the field, but unfortunately that didn't happen.
- The Colts Defense's demise was the big play, which accounted for both Jacksonville TDs. We knew the more aggressive defense would be susceptible to them, but these two weren't from being too aggressive; they were out of position, and easily correctable. Doesn't do much now, but it's a good teaching opportunity.
Season Stats through Week 3 (Adjusted):
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 73.1% | 10 | Falcons | 71.7% | 21 | Texans | 17-4 | 0.810 |
| ANPY/A | 6.453 | 13 | Cardinals | 7.721 | 25 | Seahawks | 23-1 | 0.958 |
| Turnovers | 1.68 | 17 | Packers | 0.57 | 31 | Bears | 18-7 | 0.720 |
| Yds/Drive | 32.24 | 12 | Steelers | 32.31 | 24 | Texans | 14-6 | 0.700 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:45.0 | 16 | Steelers | 2:36.0 | 14 | Texans | 20-5 | 0.800 |
| Yds/Play | 5.442 | 13 | Ravens | 6.374 | 29 | Cardinals | 14-1 | 0.933 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 66.2% | 10 | Ravens | 46.7% | 11 | Eagles | 16-5 | 0.762 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.85 | 10 | Steelers | 1.49 | 12 | Texans | 16-5 | 0.762 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 45.9% | 8 | Texans | 44.7% | 22 | Texans | 15-9 | 0.625 |
| Avg Start Pos | 28.6 | 20 | Falcons | 27.9 | 9 | Seahawks | 16-6 | 0.727 |
| 3 and Outs | 2.78 | 9 | Patriots | 4.20 | 13 | Texans | 19-9 | 0.679 |
| RZ Eff | 81.1% | 7 | Ravens | 57.6% | 13 | Eagles | 14-12 | 0.538 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.873 | 12 | Steelers | 5.122 | 12 | Texans | 16-7 | 0.696 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.888 | 22 | Dolphins | 1.353 | 5 | Texans | 12-7 | 0.632 |
| RB Success | 34.0% | 27 | Dolphins | 45.6% | 19 | 49ers | 13-20 | 0.394 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.59 | 10 | Bills | 4.50 | 21 | Browns | 12-10 | 0.545 |
| Overall | 9 | Texans | 23 | Texans | ||||
Couple things here:
- The Colts offense in the top 10? So says the stats. To be fair, it's still very early for adjusted stats, but they've played three defenses that have played really well so far this season. I'm very encouraged by the 3rd/4th Down conversions.
- The Defense hasn't been all that good (spoiler alert), and it's mainly in the three most important categories where they've struggled. That's where they need to focus their attention.
- Texans best on both offense and defense (they're good), and Passing/Stopping the Pass has won at 96% this year.
Week-by-Week Comparisons:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Bears | 75 | 60 | 80 | 27 | 86 | 62 |
| 2 | Vikings | 50 | 67 | 60 | 34 | 50 | 45 |
| 3 | Jaguars | 40 | 31 | 31 | 26 | 43 | 27 |
Even in the loss, the Colts have improved each time out, which is great to see for a young team. The silver lining of a loss like this, rather than if they had squeaked another game out, is that the coaching staff sees that their strategy has some flaws in it, and when faced with a similar situation in the future (maybe when this team has a real chance to win in the Playoffs), they'll make a difference decision. Nobody should be happy about a loss, but sometimes it takes games like this for changes to happen. Better they happen now, when the pressure is relatively low, then when winning games is expected from this team. Progress is still good.