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2012 NFL Week 4 Picks: New England Patriots At Buffalo Bills

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if, you know, it's your thing to hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]

Patriots (1-2) @ Bills (2-1)

Pick – Patriots (-4)

Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)

The New England Patriots (1-2), on the verge of their first 3-game losing skid since Indiana University played in the NCAA National Championship game (yep, THAT long ago - 2002), have every reason to have a chip on their shoulders when they head to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday to completely dismantle a C.J. Spiller-less Buffalo Bills (2-1).

Don’t let Buffalo’s record fool you – with both wins coming from terrible squads (Chiefs, 1-2 and Browns, 0-3) nor the fact that they’re currently ranked 3rd in overall rushing yards (178.0 YPG) in the NFL – key word being currently. With leading rusher C.J. Spiller (308 Yards, 3 TD’s) confirmed out for Sunday and Fred Jackson just returning from injury, I can only assume RB Tashard Choice (131 Yards, 0 TD’s) will be handling the load for the Bills, which doesn’t bode well for the upcoming 7th ranked rushing defense (81.0 YPG) they’re about to face lead by Vince Wilfork and company.

I feel like fans and bettors alike got to see what Buffalo was truly made of whenever Spiller went out due to injury nearing the end of the 1st quarter last Sunday in Cleveland, aiding in Buffalo’s 14-0 lead at the time. In the next 3 quarters, the Bills could merely string together 10-points, going a horrendous 2-5 in the red zone and should be thankful Cleveland is God-awful, only managing to throw up a whopping 240 yards of total offense! To me, this tells us all that without Spiller, they’re right back to the Buffalo Bills we’ve all come to loathe over the years.

Add all of this to the fact that Tom Brady (97.0 QB Rating, 887 Yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) and Wes Welker (16 Rec., 251 Yards, 0 TD’s) seemed to find their stride again, connecting for an impressive 142 yards on just 8 completions (it’s obvious someone wants more playing time) in last week’s loss to Baltimore and I see this one ending with a double-digit victory for the Pats.

Just So Ya’ Know:

  • Patriots two losses this season were by a combined total of 3-points to teams with a combined record of 5-1
  • Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 match-ups against the Bills
  • Patriots are 20-2 overall in their last 22 meetings with the Bills