After an offseason of tweaking and modifying the Winning Stats Predictor, it's time to put it to the test. Each week I'll be sharing with you what the Predictor says the score of each game will be, along with a probability of win. Also, as I talked about earlier this week, I'm going to pick five games Against the Spread each week, in hopes of hitting 60% on the season. Feel free to play along and track yourself in the comments as well.
Last season the Predictor was 138-109-9 overall, or 55.7%. Hoping for improvement this season, but still pretty good in my opinion. Just picking winners the Predictor was 158-98, or 61.7%. Not really that good, honestly. Should be better than that. Time for a new start, and a new season.
Your picks for Week 1:
| Home | Score | Away | Score | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 31 | Cowboys | 21 | 73.4% |
| Bears | 13 | Colts | 15 | 53.8% |
| Browns | 14 | Eagles | 22 | 69.3% |
| Titans | 27 | Patriots | 26 | 53.2% |
| Chiefs | 16 | Falcons | 17 | 52.3% |
| Vikings | 21 | Jaguars | 13 | 68.8% |
| Saints | 33 | Redskins | 16 | 84.5% |
| Jets | 25 | Bills | 17 | 69.0% |
| Lions | 27 | Rams | 12 | 82.3% |
| Texans | 21 | Dolphins | 18 | 57.5% |
| Packers | 37 | 49ers | 22 | 81.8% |
| Cardinals | 23 | Seahawks | 17 | 63.2% |
| Buccaneers | 24 | Panthers | 31 | 67.6% |
| Broncos | 10 | Steelers | 16 | 65.9% |
| Ravens | 25 | Bengals | 14 | 74.9% |
| Raiders | 24 | Chargers | 28 | 58.9% |
While there are several games that don't look right at all, the goal is to use this tool to beat the point spread, and hopefully this will help us do that. My top five picks after the jump.
My top five Against the Spread picks for Week 1:
- Saints -7 vs. Redskins
- Packers -5 vs. 49ers
- Lions -7 vs. Rams
- Colts +9.5 at Bears
- Chiefs +2.5 vs. Falcons