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2012 NFL Winning Stats Predictor: Game Picks Week One

After an offseason of tweaking and modifying the Winning Stats Predictor, it's time to put it to the test. Each week I'll be sharing with you what the Predictor says the score of each game will be, along with a probability of win. Also, as I talked about earlier this week, I'm going to pick five games Against the Spread each week, in hopes of hitting 60% on the season. Feel free to play along and track yourself in the comments as well.

Last season the Predictor was 138-109-9 overall, or 55.7%. Hoping for improvement this season, but still pretty good in my opinion. Just picking winners the Predictor was 158-98, or 61.7%. Not really that good, honestly. Should be better than that. Time for a new start, and a new season.

Your picks for Week 1:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Giants 31 Cowboys 21 73.4%
Bears 13 Colts 15 53.8%
Browns 14 Eagles 22 69.3%
Titans 27 Patriots 26 53.2%
Chiefs 16 Falcons 17 52.3%
Vikings 21 Jaguars 13 68.8%
Saints 33 Redskins 16 84.5%
Jets 25 Bills 17 69.0%
Lions 27 Rams 12 82.3%
Texans 21 Dolphins 18 57.5%
Packers 37 49ers 22 81.8%
Cardinals 23 Seahawks 17 63.2%
Buccaneers 24 Panthers 31 67.6%
Broncos 10 Steelers 16 65.9%
Ravens 25 Bengals 14 74.9%
Raiders 24 Chargers 28 58.9%

While there are several games that don't look right at all, the goal is to use this tool to beat the point spread, and hopefully this will help us do that. My top five picks after the jump.

My top five Against the Spread picks for Week 1:

  • Saints -7 vs. Redskins
  • Packers -5 vs. 49ers
  • Lions -7 vs. Rams
  • Colts +9.5 at Bears
  • Chiefs +2.5 vs. Falcons