2013 NFL Week Ten: Inside The Colts Numbers

Well, that wasn't much fun to watch. When I wrote on Thursday that the Colts would have to spot the Rams a couple touchdowns before they started really getting into the game, I was only kidding, and did not expect the Colts to spot them 38 points, but unfortunately that's what happened Sunday, a 38-8 drubbing by the Rams in front of a stunned home crowd. You know it's bad when the loudest cheers of the day come when the kick returner, who was quite busy, takes a knee in the end zone. Just one of those days.

I can understand the reaction to get pissed off, demand answers, etc., but a game like this doesn't really bother me too much. If you're going to lose like this, best to do it against a team in the other conference, as it won't hurt you in tiebreakers later on for Playoff spots. Secondly, it's now the second time we've seen the Colts not show up for a game when they have a short week ahead of them, and a much more important opponent to play. The only way a game like Sunday's is tolerable is if they win Thursday (which I think they will). It's rare to see in the NFL teams tank multiple games in a row, unless they've given up on the season. I'm guessing with a 6-3 record, the Colts haven't given up.

What a performance like Sunday shows is that the line between beating the best teams in the NFL and losing by 30 to a mid-pack team is razor sharp, and even losing focus for one day (or starting preparation early) can lead to disasters like what happened against the Rams. Even though it may seem like there are talent gaps between teams, there is very, very little. You absolutely must put in the work, or you look completely lifeless and get embarrassed.

Are there any positives? Sure, mostly on Defense, like Robert Mathis collecting two more sacks, setting his new career high that he'll be breaking each week through the end of the season. It's a shame the Rams jumped out to a lead so early, so they didn't need to pass very often, severely limiting Mathis' ability to sack the QB. He now just needs to average one sack per game the rest of the way to tie the NFL record for sacks in a season. He's got a really good shot at smashing it.

I'll try to be gentle with the numbers. They're bad.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 10:

Adjusted Stats for Week 10:

Some thoughts:

• The Colts turned the ball over almost as many times Sunday as they had in their first 8 games combined (5 vs. 6). I'm going to play the percentages and say they are more like the team in the first 8 games than the one that showed up Sunday, but time will tell. Andrew Luck seemed to be forcing a bit more, which is understandable being down by so much. Stop getting behind early, and this problem is solved.
• They were also horrendous on 3rd/4th downs, converting just 15%, far below their season average. That's an unacceptable number, and a bit concerning. They're getting worse as the season goes on.
• The Rams were one of the worst teams in the Orange and Red Zone defensively this season, and the Colts were awful down there too. Yes I know one of those trips was with Matt Hasselbeck, but for a team that can't stop talking about their power run game, they certainly don't even try when they get close to the end zone. 15% in the Red Zone, and 10% in the Orange Zone is completely unacceptable.
• Also the worst performance of the running game, which was obviously abandoned after falling behind by three scores. Doesn't matter who is to blame.
• On Defense the Colts got pretty good when the Rams got close, forcing a fumble inside their 10 yard line, and holding them to just 41% in the Red Zone. Problem was the Rams kept scoring from a long way away, so this is a bit misleading.
• I wrote this Thursday. I think it came true:
  

  The Rams are not one for big plays, ranking 30th in Yards per Play. This surprises me a bit, seeing as they drafted Tavon Austin pretty high in the draft last year, and have basically ignored him all season (signed, guy who drafted him in FFL on almost every team). It'll be a bad sign for the Colts if they hit any homerun plays.

• Very few penalties again this week, and the Defense did well to stop the run, allowing just a 35% RB Success Rate. It came when the Colts knew the Rams would be running a lot though, so it's quelled just a bit. Still good to see them make stops in the run game.

Season Stats through Week 10 (Adjusted):

Some thoughts:

• The Colts have fallen from best Offense in the NFL after Week 5 all the way to 10th in four games. I see serious regression on 3rd/4th down and in the Orange/Red Zone. Moving the ball between the 20s seems to be working ok. The coaching staff needs to get those high-leverage plays working, as they are costing the Colts dearly.
• Defense fell one spot to 20th, and have fallen from 3rd to 26th in Pass Defense in just two weeks. Yes, they were 3rd in ANPY/A after the Broncos game, and the duo of Case Keenum and Kellen Clemens have torched them in back-to-back weeks. Stop trying to fix the run defense, and get back to defending the pass. Also, Greg Toler, please get back soon. The Colts (and fans) miss you.

Week-by-Week Comparisons:

Not the worst game of the season for the Colts, but another very poor showing from the Offense, making it four in a row. I'm beginning to wonder if the league has figured out the Pep Hamilton Offense, which is bound to happen for any new scheme that enters the league. I really can't explain how you go from five straight great performances on Offense to complete duds four straight. Somebody has figured something out, and the Offensive coaches must adjust, or this could spiral out of control fast. The Offense has the 4th toughest schedule remaining. It's very possible for this to get very ugly quickly.

Let's hope they looked ahead enough to win Thursday night. If not this game becomes a whole lot worse.