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2013 Regular Season: 95-52 (64.6%)
2012 Regular Season: 164-91-1* (64.3%)
Last Week: 7-7 (50%)
All-time Colts Predictions: 18-8 (69.2%)
Another sub-par week for me as I finished just 7-7. That drops my percentage to just under 65% for the season, which is right at my percentage from last year (when, if you didn't hear, I correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner in the preseason). This is the week to turn it around... I'm predictificating that my predictifications will be 75% or better this week. I know what you're thinking... 'Can you predictify a predictification?'
Yes. Yes you can - and I just did.
The Colts sure did lay an egg last week, huh? Some people are overreacting - the sky isn't falling, take a deep breath and come off the ledge... everything is going to be OK. Everyone has a 'bad day at the office' from time to time. The simple truth is that this is just a game that got away from them. Think about it - Andrew Luck fumbled and it was returned for a touchdown, Tavon Austin picked up a perfect 'coffin-corner' punt and takes it back 98 yards, Austin then catches big play touchdowns of 57 and 81 yards. These are huge chunk plays that account for 28 of the 38 points.
Did the Colts get beat on Sunday? Yes.
Was it as bad as it looked? No.
The offensive line is still not good enough, the secondary is struggling without Greg Toler and Andrew Luck started forcing things at the end of the Rams game. Those are the things that can keep the Colts from winning this Thursday. The Titans have played well this season and will be fired up at home. If the offensive line is losing the battle in the trenches again the Colts will lose.
UNDEFEATED WATCH (1): Kansas City Chiefs.
Here's my best pick from last week:
Eagles at Packers - I told you last week that Nick Foles would continue his hot streak (3 more touchdowns) and that the injuries would be too much to overcome for the Packers (Seneca Wallace was hurt in this game, too). The final score (27-13) was nearly exactly what I predicted.
"NFL record-holder Nick Foles heads to Green Bay for an encore of last week's performance against Oakland. If last week against the Bears was any indication of the secondary that Foles will see on Sunday, he might be primed for a repeat performance. I'm saying that injury bug is just too much to handle for the Packers and that the Eagles will continue to rally behind Foles (who has thrown 13 TDs and 0 interceptions this season).
Take the Eagles.
EAGLES WIN 27-17"
Before we get to the games, here are some other fearless predictions, news and notes for Week 11:
- Both winless teams won last week (Jaguars and Buccaneers) and we may see the last undefeated team fall this week. The Broncos and Chiefs match-up for their much-anticipated showdown and Peyton Manning isn't 100%. The Chiefs also lead the league in sacks. What does all that mean? Start Knowshon Moreno in fantasy football, people.
- The Texans released Ed Reed this week - a guy that many thought might end up in a Colts uniform this past offseason. What are the chances he ends up in Indy now? Not great - the Colts don't have much need for anyone unless they can play offensive line or can consistently catch a slant route. So, where does he land? The evil empire... New England.
- Isn't it crazy when you realize that this week's 'Battle of Ohio' has major playoff implications? That's right - Bengals vs. Browns, playoff implications. Think about it... it's true.
- This Colts haven't lost back to back games in the Andrew Luck era. The game against the Titans in Nashville was close last year as the game went into overtime. If you don't remember, the Colts needed the play of the year from Vick Ballard to win. Expect another battle.
On to the picks!
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)
Line - Colts by 3
As I stated above, the Colts haven't lost back to back games in awhile. I look for them to rebound against the Titans this week. This game is equally important to both teams and I expect a close battle.
The game will be won in the trenches. The Titans will want to establish Chris Johnson and keep the Colts offense off the field. The Colts need to establish a running game to take the pressure off the inexperienced (and stone-handed) receivers. Trent Richardson hasn't played well - in fairness, he's been getting hit in the backfield a lot more than he should. His yards per carry is actually worse than it was with the Browns - and that's saying something. Needless to say, offensive line has been a major issue this year... and the loss of Donald Thomas (who most people have forgotten about) just may be the toughest injury for the Colts to overcome.
The Titans will give this game everything they have and the game will be tight. I think the Colts escape on a late Adam Vinatieri field goal and get out of Music City with a win.
COLTS WIN 27-24
New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Line - Bills by 1
The Jets have been the league's elevator this year - a lot of ups and downs. They have won and then lost on consecutive weeks all season long. If you buy into the formula it would mean the Jets are destined to lose this week to the Bills (unless you're Rex Ryan and claim that you 'lost' on the bye week).
I don't buy into formulas - the Jets are rested and the Bills haven't had a bye (and need one). I'm taking New York.
JETS WIN 23-17
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)
Line - Bears by 3
The Ravens are still very much in the hunt to win the AFC North. The win against the Bengals last week puts them in contention and a game against the the Jay Cutler-less Chicago Bears might be the momentum swing that turns the season around (especially if the Browns can beat Cincy). I think this will be a close game that either team could win - but I'm taking the team with the healthy starting quarterback.
RAVENS WIN 27-20
Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Line - Bengals by 5.5
Let's all be honest - we don't know what to expect out of either of these teams. During the early part of the season everyone thought the Browns were tanking and the Bengals were Super Bowl contenders. Now they both seem average and struggling with poor quarterback play. It may not seem like it on paper, but I think this game is even on the field. When a game looks even on the field I always say to take the home team by a field goal... so that's what I'm doing.
BENGALS WIN 20-17
Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Line - Eagles by 3.5
Look at these stat lines: 16 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and 1,470 yards on 117 completed passes... 16 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 1,256 yards on 86 completions. Which one is Peyton Manning's first four games of 2013 and which one is for Eagles quarterback Nick Foles? Foles has been playing out of his mind lately - and if you pick the Redskins to win this game you're insane.
(The first stat line was Manning's)
EAGLES WIN 27-17
Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
Line - Lions by 2
In the past this would be just the kind of game that the Lions let get away from them - I don't think that's true anymore. Detroit is a confident bunch after their win in Chicago last week and have their sights set on the division title (thanks to Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers going down with injury). The Steelers seem ready to throw the whole mess into a dumpster fire and start over - and I have to admit, that makes me smile a little.... (I hope they toss those "Terrible Towels" in there, too)
LIONS WIN 27-13
Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
Line - Falcons by 1.5
I don't know if I'm completely ready to accept the incredible demise of the Atlanta Falcons. The perennial playoff contender's look like a shell of the team that has waltzed through regular seasons in the past. Do the Buccaneers have a little swag back in their step after beating the Dolphins? Probably not. There is more talent on the Falcons side of the ball - USUALLY that should win out.
I can't stop picking the Falcons.
FALCONS WIN 27-24
Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Line - Cardinals by 7
You can probably say that the Buccaneers are better than their 1-8 record - you can't say the same for Jacksonville... they've earned their 1-8 record and then some. The Cardinals have been competitive all season and seem to have something going in the desert. With that said, the Cardinals also seem to play to the level of their competition and I think this game will be closer than most imagine.
CARDINALS WIN 24-20
Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)
Line - Texans by 7
Does anyone else want to believe the Raiders are better than they are because of how well they played the Colts in Week 1? Me, too. Oakland isn't a very good football team and they really struggle against teams that have solid defenses (which Houston does). The Texans will win this game - and they will probably win big. If you have the Texans defense in fantasy football take my advice and start them this week.
TEXANS WIN 34-17
San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)
Line - Chargers by 1.5
One of these teams is going to be falling out of playoff contention after this week - and it'll probably be the one that has NFL investigators sniffing around their locker room. The Chargers are better than their record. The Dolphins are what their record says and they're probably getting worse.
CHARGERS WIN 24-17
San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Line - Saints by 3
This is one of the best games of the week. San Francisco should be desperate after what happened last week against Carolina and the Saints are tough to beat at home (only Seattle is harder). Colin Kaepernick hasn't seemed to be having the same success this season as the 49ers offense has struggled. Look for the Saints to win this one and Drew Brees to have a big day.
SAINTS WIN 27-20
Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
Line - Giants by 5.5
Oh, how quickly things can change in the NFL. If this line would have been set three weeks ago and you told me the Giants would be favored by 5.5 points I would have bet my mortgage on the Packers. Now the Packers are starting a guy named Scott Tolzien and could be losing their third straight. The Giants are actually on a winning streak (winning three in a row), however it has been unimpressive.
The Giants are at home and I'm going to take them by a field goal.
GIANTS WIN 27-24
Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1)
Line - Seahawks by 12.5
I told you earlier that the Seahawks were the toughest team to beat at home and I meant it. The Vikings are coming off a win last week but don't have a quality quarterback that can win a game on the road in the type of environment that will be in Seattle.
You know you should take the Seahawks - it's the lock of the week.
SEAHAWKS WIN 31-13
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)
Line - Broncos by 8.5
The line on this game surprises me a little. Peyton Manning is a bit dinged up and going up against the team that many believe has the best pass rush in the NFL. If there is one way to beat Peyton Manning it's to frustrate him and get him off of his spot. I think this game is lower scoring than you would expect and the Broncos pull this out with a late field goal.
BRONCOS WIN 27-24
New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Line - Panthers by 2.5
I think the Patriots are going to struggle against the Panthers on Monday night. The Panthers can run the ball and their defense can frustrate you. The Patriots defense hasn't been very good at getting off the field this season and Carolina will probably try to grind this game out and limit Tom Brady's possessions. I still don't completely believe in the Panthers and I'm leaning towards the Patriots - but this game will be close.
PATRIOTS WIN 31-27
BYE WEEKS: Dallas Cowboys and St. Louis Rams
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Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right when I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - remember, I'm a Predictificationist.
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