2013 Regular Season: 107-68-1 (61.1%)
2012 Regular Season: 164-91-1* (64.3%)
Last Week: 5-8-1 (38.5%)
All-time Colts Predictions: 19-9 (67.9%)
...And the picks have reached a new low.
That's right, Colts fans - you just witnessed the worst picks in Predictification history last week. I've never predictified a worse week of NFL action in my life. To put it in perspective, I was beat by three females last week... in my own house.
That's right. And it's not that I'm embarrassed at being beat by women (heck, women are pretty smart), it's that the ladies were my wife (and that's humbling for a lot of reasons) and my two daughters... age 5 and 4. Needless to say, I've been humbled.
The last several weeks of my slump I've felt like Doctor Emmett Brown from Back to the Future trying out an early version of the Predictifcator....
Back to the Future (5/10) Movie CLIP - I'm From the Future (1985) HD (via movieclips)
And all of you that brag to me about how your picks were better than mine last week through tweets, emails and message board comments - that's about as impressive as saying you outscored the Indianapolis Colts in the first half the last four weeks.
Everybody's doing it.
And, like the Colts, I intend to fix it.
The Colts laid another egg last week, although this time they sucked the entire game - instead of just the first half. I've been proclaimed as 'the voice of reason' on Stampede Blue for not approaching the ledge during some of the tough times in Coltsland, but I have to admit even I am starting to have doubts.
As of this moment, the Colts can't run, catch, tackle, force a turnover, stop the run, pressure the passer, protect Luck or score points.... and that makes it hard to win.
The Tennessee Titans come into this week feeling like they should have won the game two weeks ago - and they're probably right. I expect to see a heavy dose of Chris Johnson (start him in fantasy, people) as the Titans will showed they learned from abandoning the run in the second half the last time they played the Colts.
Let's face it: Indy's beat up and can't seem to get over the mental hump of first half slumps. Something has to change if they are going to get a win this week.
Here's my best pick from last week:
Panthers at Dolphins - I told you last week that this game would be close and that the Panthers might get upset. If you watched the game you know that was right on the money and I was in the ballpark on the score as the game ended 20-16.
"The Panthers are becoming the darlings of the NFL. The bandwagon is starting to get full after Carolina's win against the Patriots - and with good reason. The Panthers play stubborn defensive and have a dual-threat quarterback that can make plays. The Dolphins have seemed to bond a little over their locker room controversy and they're at home.
I'm taking the Panthers but they might be on upset alert.
PANTHERS WIN 24-17"
Before we get to the games, here are some other fearless predictions, news and notes for Week 13:
- Who will break their 'losing' streak first - me or the Colts? I'm hoping for the same thing we saw last week - a tie. Both of us end our poor performances this week.
- People are having fun at Robert Griffin III's expense over the fact his father came to 'console' him after the game against the 49ers. I'm not a huge believer in RGIII as a player but I'm going to wait to throw the first stone on this one... I remember Archie Manning hanging around an awful lot in Indianapolis.
- I understand that it's Thanksgiving and we should focus on things we are thankful for - but the games on Turkey Day this year make it difficult. Only one of the three games feature two teams that are .500 or better for the season (Packers vs. Lions) and Aaron Rodgers won't play. Not a single game on Thanksgiving features a team more than one game over .500.
- The Broncos and Chiefs match-up again this week in a game that many will want to see - especially in the way that each team lost last week. The Saints and Seahawks should be a great game, too. I think the Rams and 49ers game may be the game of the week though - Rams could shock some people.
On to the picks!
Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
Line - Colts by 4.5
The Colts need a home game - they need something that can get them back into a groove. This game will come down to which team is able to impose their will on the other. The Titans will want to run the ball and attack with a deep pass from time to time (something the Colts have been vulnerable to) and the Colts will want to establish a power running game and control the pace of the game.
What will happen? I think the Colts actually go into halftime with a lead (what?!) and finish off the Titans in the second half. Coby Fleener has a big day.
COLTS WIN 24-17
Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)
Line - Lions by 6
The Lions should win this game - but then again, they should have won their last several games but have refused to take control of a division that has been basically handed to them. Will playing on Thanksgiving, at home and against a team quarterbacked by Matt Flynn be enough to get the Lions over the top?
If not, it never will.
LIONS WIN 27-24
Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
Line - Cowboys by 9.5
I have to give it to the Cowboys - I didn't expect them to beat the Giants last week but they found a way. The opponent this week is even worse than the Giants and Dallas should be able to continue to make a strong push for the NFC East title ('strong' was a bit of an overstatement, wasn't it?). The Raiders have been all over the map this year and are one of the hardest teams in the NFL to predict from week to week.
I'm taking the home team - but not by 9.5 points, that's for sure!
COWBOYS WIN 34-27
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)
Line - Ravens by 2.5
I don't think I care about this game. Chances are slim that we see either in the playoffs and neither team has done anything this season to make me care about them. The Steelers are on a little run since being embarrassed by an early winless start. The Ravens are up and down and tough to get a feel for.
You know the rule - when the game looks even on paper take the home team by a field goal.
RAVENS WIN 23-20
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Cleveland Browns (4-7)
Line - Browns by 7
When I looked at this game initially I was confident the Browns would come out on top. Despite their record Cleveland hasn't played that bad this year. However, remember this: the two games that Jacksonville has won this year have been on the road.
OK - never mind, it's still not enough. I'm taking the Browns.
BROWNS WIN 23-13
Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1)
Line - Vikings by 1
Let's all admit something about this game - we have no idea. I thought the Bears could win without Jay Cutler but last week's performance against the Rams has given me doubts. I didn't think the Vikings could win with any of their quarterbacks and yet they probably should have won last week against Green Bay.
Home team by a field goal - I hope I don't regret this one.
VIKINGS WIN 20-17
Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6)
Line - Jets by 2
It seems like the wheels are coming off a little in New York and Miami has been tough the last several weeks. I think the Dolphins win this game and Geno Smith continues to struggle.
DOLPHINS WIN 24-17
Arizona Cardinals (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)
Line - Eagles by 3
I'm actually very excited to see who wins this game. The Cardinals showed an awful lot last week against the Colts and proved what they have all season - they're pretty good. The Eagles have been surging over the last several weeks behind quarterback Nick Foles.
I'm taking the Cardinals - but I'd be OK with being wrong.
CARDINALS WIN 27-24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) at Carolina Panthers (8-3)
Line - Panthers by 8.5
This is a match-up of two of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Buccaneers have won three straight after starting 0-8 and the Panthers have won seven straight after starting 2-3. Divisional games are always difficult to predict but I feel safe saying that the Panthers won't win by more than 8 points.
This one comes down to a touchdown either way - and I'm taking the home team.
PANTHERS WIN 27-20
New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9)
Line - Patriots by 7.5
As bad as this season has been going for the Predictificationist, I've got nothing on the Houston Texans. Losing to the Jaguars at home last week has to be the lowest point for this franchise this season. The Patriots stole a game from Denver last week and shouldn't have any problem with Houston - even on the road.
It's the lock of the week.
PATRIOTS WIN 34-17
Atlanta Falcons (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)
Line - Bills by 3
One of my many undoings this season has been that I continue to pick the Falcons despite the reality that they aren't winning this year.
At this point, why break with tradition? I will be right about them eventually.
FALCONS WIN 24-17
St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Line - 49ers by 8.5
I think the Rams may win this game - and I'd be picking them if they were at home. The 49ers haven't looked like the same team they did last year on offense and (in one of the few things it seems I've been right about lately) Colin Kaepernick's hype is decreasing rapidly.
I'm taking the home team by a field goal - but don't be shocked if the Rams win this one.
49ERS WIN 27-24
Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
Line - Broncos by 4.5
Here is something that I noticed the last time these two teams matched up two weeks ago: the Broncos are better. Kansas City is a good team - but they aren't a great team. The Broncos are a legitimate Super Bowl contender (as long as Manning doesn't throw a heartbreaking interception in the playoffs) and should win this game - even on the road.
BRONCOS WIN 34-24
Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6)
Line - Chargers by 1
If you've watched San Diego this year then you know that this is a game that they will lose. Not because they are the inferior team, in fact they are probably better than the Bengals, but they can't seem to string momentum together. The Bengals are a lot like the Colts (that pains me to say) where they have been wildly inconsistent and seem to rise to most occasions when necessary.
I'm taking the Bengals and you should, too.
BENGALS WIN 27-24
New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8)
Line - Giants by 1.5
If there is anyone left on the RGIII bandwagon it may be time to get off. Something isn't right with the second-year quarterback, the Redskins offense or just about anything else in Washington. The Giants haven't exactly been tearing up the league either - but I believe in them more than the Redskins right now (and that's saying something).
GIANTS WIN 24-17
New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1)
Line - Seahawks by 5
This is the first game on ESPN's Monday Night Football that has been 'must-see' all season long. Something tells me that the Saints will win this game but it is almost impossible to pick against Seattle at home. If they Saints had looked a little more crisp on offense last week against Atlanta I'd be taking them - New Orleans will have to bring their 'A' game on offense. Seattle has seemed a little vulnerable the last several weeks but are winning the games they have to.
Home team by a field goal... again.
SEAHAWKS WIN 27-24
Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right when I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - remember, I'm a Predictificationist.
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