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Using the Winning Stats, I've simulated the rest of the season, including the Playoffs, 50,000 times to come up with the Playoff odds. It should give you a pretty good idea how likely teams are to make the Playoffs, win Playoff games, and ultimately win the Super Bowl.
Week 14 gave two more teams a Playoff berth to join the Seahawks: the Colts and the Broncos, with the Colts being the only team to have won their division so far. It's nice to see the 100% in there. However, with the loss to the Bengals, the Colts chances of being a top 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs have dwindled to about 12%. Here's your AFC South Playoff chances, where the Texans have been eliminated, while the Jaguars have the slimmest of slim hopes left:
| AFC South | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Colts | 9.5 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 10.0% | 88.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% | |
| Titans | 6.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| Jaguars | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Texans | 2.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
I know the Jaguars says 0.0%, but they made the Playoffs 15 times in the 50,000 seasons, so it isn't technically 0%. It's actually a better chance than the Browns, Bills, and Raiders, who are still mathematically eligible, but really they have no chance. You also see the Titans have a less than 1% of getting that final Wild Card spot, and the Colts have just a 1.7% at a First Round Bye. Will take a lot of losing by the Bengals and Patriots.
The rest of the AFC:
| AFC North | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Bengals | 10.9 | 4.3% | 40.2% | 47.6% | 3.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 95.4% | 44.5% | 2.7% | 98.0% | |
| Ravens | 8.1 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 24.8% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 24.9% | 29.5% | |
| Steelers | 6.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| Browns | 5.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| AFC East | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Patriots | 11.6 | 16.0% | 39.9% | 34.2% | 5.9% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 96.0% | 55.9% | 3.7% | 99.7% | |
| Dolphins | 8.9 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 60.7% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 61.9% | 65.9% | |
| Jets | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | |
| Bills | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| AFC West | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Broncos | 13.0 | 74.5% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 93.0% | 90.0% | 7.0% | 100.0% | |
| Chiefs | 11.8 | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 91.5% | 1.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 93.0% | 99.9% | |
| Chargers | 7.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
| Raiders | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Four teams are 98% or better to make the Playoffs (boring...), while that 6th seed is certainly interesting. Everyone has penciled the Ravens into that spot, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Dolphins to grab that spot, and have more than twice the chances of doing that than the Ravens do. Both the Patriots and Bengals are almost in a dead heat for the #2 seed, and most likely a meeting in the Divisional Round. We'll see where it'll be played.
The NFC Playoff picture:
| NFC South | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Saints | 11.8 | 7.6% | 71.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 81.5% | 78.6% | 18.1% | 99.6% | |
| Panthers | 10.9 | 1.0% | 16.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 46.5% | 25.5% | 18.5% | 17.6% | 72.0% | 90.5% | |
| Buccaneers | 5.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Falcons | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| NFC North | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Lions | 8.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 51.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 66.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 67.0% | |
| Bears | 8.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 26.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 27.0% | |
| Packers | 7.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | |
| Vikings | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| NFC East | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Eagles | 9.7 | 0.1% | 4.1% | 51.4% | 9.6% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 65.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 68.7% | |
| Cowboys | 8.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 34.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 35.8% | |
| Giants | 6.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Redskins | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| NFC West | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
| Seahawks | 13.1 | 90.5% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.2% | 94.4% | 94.3% | 5.6% | 100.0% | |
| 49ers | 10.8 | 0.9% | 4.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 30.7% | 52.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 83.6% | 89.2% | |
| Cardinals | 9.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | |
| Rams | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
The Seahawks are in, and the Saints are essentially in, and the Panthers and 49ers look really good to get to the Playoffs as well, leaving the only interesting spots the divisional races in the North and East. The Lions and Eagles have the inside track at this point, but I don't think you can count out either the Bears or Cowboys. The Buccaneers, Falcons, Vikings, Giants, Redskins, and Rams have all been eliminated.
AFC Playoff Advancing Odds:
| AFC | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Div. Round | Conf. Champ | Win Conf. | Win SB |
| Broncos | 93.0% | 7.0% | 96.2% | 59.2% | 36.6% | 19.4% |
| Bengals | 95.4% | 2.7% | 78.9% | 47.3% | 24.1% | 11.4% |
| Chiefs | 7.0% | 93.0% | 62.6% | 28.0% | 14.0% | 5.6% |
| Patriots | 96.0% | 3.7% | 77.6% | 33.2% | 12.6% | 4.3% |
| Dolphins | 4.0% | 61.9% | 30.9% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Colts | 100.0% | 0.0% | 40.9% | 14.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Ravens | 4.6% | 24.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Chargers | 0.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Steelers | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Titans | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jets | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raiders | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Browns | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bills | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jaguars | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texans | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Broncos are now the Super Bowl favorite at about 19.5%, with about a 37% shot at making the Super Bowl, also a league high. You can see the Colts are just 40% to advance, which is probably really close to the odds of them beating the Chiefs at home. Their Super Bowl odds are actually up from 1.6% from last week (!), but still not good, and still behind the Dolphins, who aren't close to clinching a Playoff berth yet.
NFC Playoff Advancing Odds:
| NFC | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Div. Round | Conf. Champ | Win Conf. | Win SB |
| Seahawks | 94.4% | 5.6% | 98.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% | 18.9% |
| Saints | 81.5% | 18.1% | 91.9% | 54.7% | 28.9% | 16.3% |
| Panthers | 18.5% | 72.0% | 61.1% | 28.4% | 13.5% | 7.4% |
| 49ers | 5.6% | 83.6% | 55.2% | 24.5% | 11.8% | 6.4% |
| Eagles | 65.2% | 3.5% | 33.9% | 13.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Lions | 66.9% | 0.1% | 25.5% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Cowboys | 34.8% | 0.9% | 13.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Cardinals | 0.0% | 16.0% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Bears | 26.8% | 0.2% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Packers | 6.4% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rams | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giants | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buccaneers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Redskins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vikings | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Falcons | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Saints make the biggest jump after the dominating win over the Panthers last week, having their Super Bowl odds go up 11% to the 3rd favorite behind the Broncos and Seahawks.