2013 NFL Week Sixteen: Inside The Colts Numbers

Sunday afternoon was the fifth time this season that I had another commitment, so I could not watch the Colts play live. The games I missed? 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Broncos, and now the Chiefs. I'm thinking there really may be something to this after the Colts throttled the Chiefs 23-7 at Arrowhead, and it paralleled those other four games on the season: namely, they were dominant on at least one side of the ball and looked like a team that can win the Super Bowl. It's been a few weeks since that was the case, so I hope these Colts stick around for another six weeks or so.

The Chiefs built their 11-3 record on mostly Defense, but had scored 167 points over the past four weeks (almost 42 per game and highest over a 4 game stretch in Chiefs history), including 56 just a week ago, so their Offense was firing on all cylinders. The Colts Defense wanted nothing to do with that, consistently making plays and giving the Chiefs Offense all kinds of problems. Want to know how awesome the performance was from the Colts? From Elias:

Kansas City became the first team since 1954 to score fewer than 10 points in a game immediately following a four-game stretch with an average of 40 or more points. The only other teams to have done that both won their low-scoring game: the Giants in 1950 (9-7 over the Eagles); and the Browns in 1954 (6-0 over the Eagles).

You'll see specifically what they did later, but you can count on the explanation being something you've heard over and over in these columns before.

Because I didn't watch it in real-time, I got to watch it on hyper-drive thanks to DirecTV's Short Cuts, so I probably missed some of the nuances that may have occurred, but I really can't complain too much about anything from Sunday. I think it was abundantly clear this team shouldn't try to "power run" in obvious "power run" situations, and like Brad has mentioned already, Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton is calling a lot more plays from the shotgun, and the Offense is playing much better because of it. I don't think the philosophy of a "power run" game is completely gone, I just think the coaches have finally realized they don't have the personnel to do it right now, so they are shelving it for the time-being and calling plays to fit the players they have now; it's working. (I noticed several rollouts by Luck as well. Every one of them worked) They must have scrapped the old philosophy at halftime in Cincinnati, as they've had five straight halfs of superb Offense efficiency. It makes me hope they can fine-tune things next week against Jacksonville and get themselves ready for the following weekend.

Want to see the domination in number form? Let's take a look:

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 16:

Adjusted Stats for Week 16:

Some thoughts:

• Since the start of the 2002 season, teams are 293-9 when having a Turnover margin of 4 or more in their favor. For the Colts to get four turnovers against a team that only turned it over 14 times all season before then is remarkable. I think one of them will be changed to yet another strip/sack for Robert Mathis, as Alex Smith's forearm did most of the throwing on that one (and why no hit-on-defenseless-receiver penalty on the Chiefs there? Clear helmet-to-helmet contact.)
• Another key I had from Thursday was getting the 30th ranked team on 3rd/4th down off the field, which the Colts did a great job doing Sunday. Even after adjusted for the Chiefs ineptness the Colts still held an "average" team under 30%, which is a huge win.
• Once again the Defense is spectacular when the opponent gets close to their end zone. Four trips into the Orange Zone for the Chiefs, and the lone touchdown to show for it. Only one trip to the Red Zone, and it ended on a Jerrell Freeman interception. That means over the last two games, the Colts have allowed just one drive to reach the Red Zone. Mighty impressive.
• Also told you that if the Colts can make the Chiefs drive the ball farther, it'll be a big win, as the Chiefs had one of the best starting field positions in the NFL, and the Colts delivered here too, making them start, on average, 10 yards deeper in their own territory. It may not seem like much, but that's a ton of yards. A lot of that is on Pat McAfee, who had another very good day. Pay the man.
• On Offense the Colts held the ball for nearly four minutes per drive against the #1 Defense in Time of Possession per Drive. Pretty impressive.
• I said the Chiefs have a tendency of giving up big plays. I guess that continued Sunday as well, thanks to a 33 yard dump-off and a 51 yard draw play by Donald Brown. More on this draw play in a minute.
• The Red Zone was a bit of a disaster, including a missed 34 yard field goal (good to get that out of Adam Vinatieri's system), with just three points on two trips. A bit disappointing.
• The Colts were above average on both sides of the ball in our top five stats, and 10 of the 16 we cover here. Want to see a dominating performance on paper, as well as on the field? This is how you do it.
• However, the Colts couldn't run the ball, and couldn't stop the run (7.75 per carry ?!?), yet won the game in dominating fashion. Brown had a 51 yard run but the Colts as a team couldn't break four yards per carry? You know how you get to 4 yards per carry after a 51 yard run? 12 carries for 1 yard. Save for one run, that was the Colts running game. Did this matter one bit in the outcome? Not even the slightest. Why? Because they passed the ball and stopped the pass, just like every other successful team does in the NFL (10-1 this week). I still don't understand how something this obvious is completely missed by so many smart people.

Season Stats through Week 16 (Adjusted):

Some thoughts:

• The Offense moved back into the league lead in Turnovers, but their overall number stayed at 10th overall. There were some bad games in there weighting it down, but usually at this point in the season it takes something drastic to move a bunch of spots.
• The Defense is doing drastic things, so they gained another two spots in the Overall rankings up to 19th, and are now a top 5 Defense in the Red Zone and a top 10 team in Turnovers.

Week-by-Week Comparison:

It's the second straight week we've seen a top-end performance from the Colts, and it's coming at just the right time. Clearly they've figured out most of what was ailing them for a month and a half after the Bye. I said this team had a legitimate chance at winning the Super Bowl back after Week 5, and they had rarely shown me anything since that backed up that claim. They finally have. Next week we're Colts, Bills, and Ravens fans so the Colts can rest up a bit before playing a Playoff game in front of the home crowd.