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It's Divisional Round Weekend, one of my two favorite weekends of the entire year (the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament the other). The NFL's eight best teams all playing over two days in some of the most exciting games of the entire season. It's one of those weekends you just lounge around, stay warm, and watch some great football.
This year's four games all feature games with teams in the Winning Stat's top 11, with the 49ers/Panthers game featuring the 4th and 2nd best teams, respectively. There certainly aren't any "flukes" like we often see in this round. Let's take a look at percentages to advance, as well as chances of winning the Super Bowl:
AFC:
| Team | Divisional | Conf Champ | Super Bowl | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 100.0% | 46.5% | 26.3% | 12.4% |
| Patriots | 100.0% | 45.2% | 16.8% | 5.9% |
| Bengals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colts | 100.0% | 54.8% | 24.9% | 10.9% |
| Chiefs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chargers | 100.0% | 53.5% | 32.0% | 17.2% |
You can see the Colts are slight favorites this weekend in New England, and have about an 11% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is roughly 10-1. That means my 33-1 looks pretty darn good right about now. My preview of Colts vs. Patriots is here.
Chargers at Broncos Quick Preview:
Last week the Chargers, with the #1 Road Offense, went to Cincinnati and beat the #1 Home Defense pretty handily. Now they stay on the road in Denver, a place they've already won this year. The Chargers Defense has slowed down the Broncos twice already this year, so doing it a third time is a very tall task, especially with Wes Welker returning. Even though they give up long drives, they improve greatly when they get into the Orange Zone (10th in NFL) and the Red Zone (12th in NFL). Their opponents also have the worst starting field position in their road games, starting on average at the 25. The Broncos will need to avoid mistakes on those long drives (rank just 15th in Turnovers at home). It's going to be a very offense-heavy game, but with both teams going on long, sustained drives, so while it's possible to get to the 30s, I think high 20s for both teams is more likely. The Chargers are hot, and I think they'll be visiting Indianapolis next weekend.
Chargers 29, Broncos 27
NFC:
| Team | Divisional | Conf Champ | Super Bowl | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 100.0% | 54.6% | 33.4% | 20.0% |
| Panthers | 100.0% | 40.3% | 14.3% | 6.0% |
| Eagles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Packers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 49ers | 100.0% | 59.7% | 27.2% | 14.1% |
| Saints | 100.0% | 45.4% | 25.1% | 13.5% |
Saints at Seahawks Quick Preview:
This game wasn't close the first time they played this year (34-7 Seahawks on a Monday night), and this is just a bad match-up for the Saints. Seattle has the best Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt (ANPY/A) at home (2.54), and forces the most Turnovers (nearly 3 per game), and has the lowest Yards per Play (4.3), which is a major hindrance to the strength of the Saints Offense: long pass plays. The Saints also struggle in between their opponents 35 and 20, as they're ranked 30th in Orange Zone Efficiency, but 9th in the Red Zone on the road. This could easily be kicking problems, but still something to watch. The Saints Defense has forced just six Turnovers in 9 road games this year, so they'll have to stop the Seahawks on 3rd/4th down (SEA 12th at home, NO 8th on road). Penalties may help the Saints, as Seattle is most penalized team at home in the NFL. In the end, Seattle is just too tough at home against a team that doesn't play that well on the road, although it will be a lot closer than the first time around.
Seahawks 23, Saints 21
49ers at Panthers Quick Preview:
Carolina went to San Francisco earlier this season and played the 7th best Defensive game of the entire NFL season that day, holding Colin Kaepernick to just 0.036 ANPY/A (adjusted for opponent it went to -0.981!), which means against an average NFL team, they would have lost almost a full yard every time they dropped back to pass. However, the 49ers lost Vernon Davis midway through the 2nd quarter with a concussion, and Michael Crabtree hadn't made his season debut yet. Since Crabtree has returned, the 49ers are 6-0, and have the 6th best passing offense in the NFL. The Panthers have been in the top 3 of the Winning Stats power rankings now since about Week 6, so they've been tremendous all season, winners of 11 of their last 12 games. The 49ers are the best road team in the NFL as far as Drive-related stats, holding teams to just 63% Drive Success Rate. Can Cam Newton, making his first Playoff start, do enough to move the Offense, potentially without Steve Smith? The Panthers Defense will also have to play lights out when 49ers get close to the end zone, as Carolina ranks 3rd at home in Orange Zone Efficiency (38.3%) and tops in the league in Red Zone Efficiency (41.3%). Can they force enough field goals to keep the Offense in the game? I don't think so, as I think the road team, for the third game of the weekend, wins.
49ers 23, Panthers 20