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Once again in Week 5 the Winning Stats Predictor went above .500 for the week, going 8-7, making it five straight weeks without a losing one. I hope you used the picks at least for the Monday Night game, as it had the exact score pegged, 27-17 Seahawks. It happens about 3 or 4 times a season, so it isn't super-rare, but cool when it nails the exact score. Season total now sits at 44-32 (57.9%).
Straight Up picks seem to be going every other week, as last week was another superb week, going 12-3 after a disappointing 5-8 Week 4. Let's hope this whole every other week thing is a thing of the past. Season total now sits at 48-28 (61%).
This will be the last week I'll be using any of the 2013 data, which is a new addition for this year and made a huge difference. I had noticed several years ago that there was a pretty good correlation between the end of the previous season to the current one, but never incorporated the stats into my opponent adjustment numbers until this year. It's made a world of difference, as you can tell with how well it's picking games. Let's keep the good times rolling.
Picks for Week 6 (and I finally got a Thursday night game right!):
| Home | Score | Away | Score | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 20 | Colts | 26 | 65.4% |
| Bills | 21 | Patriots | 22 | 51.8% |
| Browns | 27 | Steelers | 29 | 54.4% |
| Dolphins | 23 | Packers | 26 | 58.2% |
| Vikings | 18 | Lions | 24 | 66.6% |
| Titans | 27 | Jaguars | 22 | 63.5% |
| Falcons | 29 | Bears | 28 | 52.8% |
| Bengals | 26 | Panthers | 20 | 65.0% |
| Jets | 17 | Broncos | 31 | 81.9% |
| Buccaneers | 22 | Ravens | 27 | 63.4% |
| Raiders | 16 | Chargers | 32 | 85.0% |
| Cardinals | 27 | Redskins | 22 | 62.2% |
| Seahawks | 29 | Cowboys | 24 | 63.2% |
| Eagles | 20 | Giants | 24 | 62.1% |
| Rams | 22 | 49ers | 27 | 62.6% |
SuperContest had a down week, going just 2-3, bringing our season total to 17-8 (still really good). I said on Thursday we were going to use the Colts this week, so we have a winner already. Here are the others:
- Colts -3 at Texans
- Dolphins +3.5 vs. Packers
- Bills +3 vs. Patriots
- Chargers -7 at Raiders
- Giants +3 at Eagles
Survivor Pick: Chargers were an easy winner last week, and we're going to go against the Jaguars this week (it's worked five times already this year), going with the Titans. The Titans clearly are a team that can not show up, especially after what happened to them last week, but the Jaguars are just not good.
USED: Jets, 49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers