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Last week was a very interesting one for the Winning Stats Predictor. If you look at the overall record, 11-4, I'm overjoyed it, once again, is just killing it picking every game. However, the games which had the best chance of covering went just 3-3, leaving me without the joys of cashing in on the success. The season record now sits at 55-36, or 60.4%. Basically, kicking ass.
Picking games straight up went 10-4-1 (I hate ties), which brings the season total to 58-32-1 (62.3%). This will be the last time I mention the tie in my record, as I'm going to treat it like the game didn't exist. It's really best if nobody talks about it again.
We're now completely on 2014 data, so I'm a little concerned that the amount of data will lead to some small-sample-size predictions. I'm treading lightly this week in my plays because of it, and I'll ramp up once we get a little more data, so we know it's good. After Week 9 I'll start using home/away adjustments, but for now teams haven't played enough games home/away for it to be just more than randomness. Just too much error.
Here are your picks for Week 7:
| Home | Score | Away | Score | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 29 | Jets | 18 | 76.7% |
| Bears | 23 | Dolphins | 20 | 57.1% |
| Lions | 29 | Saints | 22 | 68.1% |
| Packers | 33 | Panthers | 28 | 61.7% |
| Jaguars | 22 | Browns | 30 | 71.8% |
| Ravens | 32 | Falcons | 23 | 71.2% |
| Bills | 24 | Vikings | 15 | 72.3% |
| Colts | 30 | Bengals | 24 | 67.4% |
| Redskins | 27 | Titans | 25 | 54.3% |
| Rams | 24 | Seahawks | 28 | 60.2% |
| Chargers | 31 | Chiefs | 28 | 59.9% |
| Raiders | 23 | Cardinals | 29 | 64.2% |
| Cowboys | 30 | Giants | 19 | 77.2% |
| Broncos | 27 | 49ers | 23 | 61.3% |
| Steelers | 20 | Texans | 27 | 67.0% |
SuperContest went 2-3 again this week, giving us a 19-11 season record, which is still pretty awesome, just not at the insane level we started out with. I only had four games that jumped out at me based on trends, so I had to go on blind faith for the fifth. Might as well go with the Colts then, eh?
- Colts -3 vs. Bengals
- Browns -5.5 at Jaguars
- Rams +6.5 vs. Seahawks
- Cardinals -3.5 at Raiders
- Texans +3.5 at Steelers
Survivor Pick: The Titans "survived" a Josh Scobee last-second field goal last week to give us a winner. This week I toyed with taking the Patriots, but decided to keep them for later. I'm going to go with my second team for 2014 this week, the Bills hosting the Vikings. Really need them to win this week, and think they'll take care of business.
USED: Jets, 49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans