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2014 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 7

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Just another 11-4 week picking Against the Spread for the Winning Stats Predictor last week, bringing our season total over 60%. This is certainly a fun ride, so come join the train!

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Last week was a very interesting one for the Winning Stats Predictor. If you look at the overall record, 11-4, I'm overjoyed it, once again, is just killing it picking every game. However, the games which had the best chance of covering went just 3-3, leaving me without the joys of cashing in on the success. The season record now sits at 55-36, or 60.4%. Basically, kicking ass.

Picking games straight up went 10-4-1 (I hate ties), which brings the season total to 58-32-1 (62.3%). This will be the last time I mention the tie in my record, as I'm going to treat it like the game didn't exist. It's really best if nobody talks about it again.

We're now completely on 2014 data, so I'm a little concerned that the amount of data will lead to some small-sample-size predictions. I'm treading lightly this week in my plays because of it, and I'll ramp up once we get a little more data, so we know it's good. After Week 9 I'll start using home/away adjustments, but for now teams haven't played enough games home/away for it to be just more than randomness. Just too much error.

Here are your picks for Week 7:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Patriots 29 Jets 18 76.7%
Bears 23 Dolphins 20 57.1%
Lions 29 Saints 22 68.1%
Packers 33 Panthers 28 61.7%
Jaguars 22 Browns 30 71.8%
Ravens 32 Falcons 23 71.2%
Bills 24 Vikings 15 72.3%
Colts 30 Bengals 24 67.4%
Redskins 27 Titans 25 54.3%
Rams 24 Seahawks 28 60.2%
Chargers 31 Chiefs 28 59.9%
Raiders 23 Cardinals 29 64.2%
Cowboys 30 Giants 19 77.2%
Broncos 27 49ers 23 61.3%
Steelers 20 Texans 27 67.0%

SuperContest went 2-3 again this week, giving us a 19-11 season record, which is still pretty awesome, just not at the insane level we started out with. I only had four games that jumped out at me based on trends, so I had to go on blind faith for the fifth. Might as well go with the Colts then, eh?

  • Colts -3 vs. Bengals
  • Browns -5.5 at Jaguars
  • Rams +6.5 vs. Seahawks
  • Cardinals -3.5 at Raiders
  • Texans +3.5 at Steelers

Survivor Pick: The Titans "survived" a Josh Scobee last-second field goal last week to give us a winner. This week I toyed with taking the Patriots, but decided to keep them for later. I'm going to go with my second team for 2014 this week, the Bills hosting the Vikings. Really need them to win this week, and think they'll take care of business.

USED: Jets, 49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans