One of the features I'd like to start giving you each week is Playoff Odds, as I think it paints a really good picture of how the rest of the season should play out, and shows where teams could end up based on the schedule they have remaining. With most teams having seven games remaining, I hope to get these out each Wednesday to help with your prognostications.
A brief description of what I've done: Based on the Winning Stats I've found the probability of win for each remaining game on the schedule, and for each possible Playoff game, whether it be home or away, as well as the Super Bowl. I then simulate the rest of the season based on those probabilities, finding a Super Bowl Champion each time, and documenting where each team finished. Once you do this 50,000 times (it takes longer to get the probabilities of each possible game than to run the season this many times), you have a good estimate of the odds for each team to win the division, get a first round bye, advance in the Playoffs, and win the Super Bowl. I put them in nice tables and you can impress your friends with it.
I'm not going to have too much commentary on them, as they are pretty self-explanatory. I can say the Colts are in really good shape to win the division (best chances of anyone in NFL), and a first round Bye hinges on this weekend, for the most part: A win puts them at 50% for a Bye (Pats at 21%), a loss at just 11.4% (Pats at 62%). It's by no means a sure thing if they win this weekend, but it's highly doubtful without a win Sunday night. They also have the 4th best odds to win the Super Bowl at 9.3%, behind the Broncos, Cardinals, and Packers (but ahead of the Patriots, barely). The Raiders have a 10% chance of going 0-16. We'll watch this until they win a game.
I have tables for each division, as well as a conference look for the Super Bowl. You can sort any column by just clicking on the header.
AFC South | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Colts | 10.5 | 7.9% | 23.4% | 25.0% | 37.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 93.9% | 31.3% | 0.9% | 94.7% | |
Texans | 7.8 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 0.9% | 8.8% | 14.9% | |
Titans | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
Jaguars | 3.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Browns | 10.4 | 4.6% | 15.1% | 20.4% | 16.3% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 56.2% | 19.6% | 14.1% | 70.3% | |
Steelers | 9.2 | 1.3% | 5.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 15.7% | 24.0% | 6.5% | 24.1% | 48.1% | |
Ravens | 8.9 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 8.5% | 17.2% | 1.9% | 11.0% | 28.2% | |
Bengals | 7.5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% |
AFC East | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Patriots | 10.8 | 18.7% | 21.6% | 17.6% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 68.4% | 40.4% | 14.6% | 82.9% | |
Dolphins | 9.1 | 2.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 13.6% | 19.2% | 7.2% | 19.7% | 38.9% | |
Bills | 8.7 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 11.7% | 24.1% | |
Jets | 4.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC West | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Broncos | 11.9 | 49.7% | 18.7% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 16.0% | 4.5% | 76.0% | 68.3% | 20.5% | 96.5% | |
Chiefs | 10.5 | 14.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 46.4% | 13.3% | 23.3% | 20.5% | 59.7% | 82.9% | |
Chargers | 8.1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 11.6% | 12.3% | |
Raiders | 1.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Saints | 8.7 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 6.6% | 78.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 85.9% | |
Falcons | 5.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.7% | |
Panthers | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
Buccaneers | 3.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
NFC North | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Lions | 11.0 | 16.4% | 24.4% | 14.4% | 0.4% | 21.1% | 12.8% | 55.5% | 40.7% | 33.9% | 89.4% | |
Packers | 10.6 | 5.8% | 20.3% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 18.0% | 16.7% | 44.2% | 26.0% | 34.7% | 78.8% | |
Vikings | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | |
Bears | 5.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
NFC East | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Eagles | 10.9 | 7.6% | 21.8% | 32.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 64.9% | 29.4% | 15.2% | 80.0% | |
Cowboys | 10.2 | 2.2% | 10.6% | 21.3% | 0.6% | 12.3% | 17.8% | 34.7% | 12.8% | 30.0% | 64.7% | |
Giants | 6.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
Redskins | 5.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
NFC West | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Div | Bye | WC | Total | |
Cardinals | 12.3 | 64.4% | 18.0% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 88.8% | 82.3% | 9.4% | 98.2% | |
49ers | 9.3 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 42.5% | 47.6% | |
Seahawks | 9.1 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 29.0% | 35.1% | |
Rams | 5.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
AFC | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Div. Round | Conf. Champ | Win Conf. | Win SB |
Broncos | 76.0% | 20.5% | 84.8% | 49.4% | 28.0% | 16.8% |
Colts | 93.9% | 0.9% | 66.8% | 34.5% | 17.2% | 9.3% |
Patriots | 68.4% | 14.6% | 63.7% | 33.9% | 17.1% | 9.2% |
Chiefs | 23.3% | 59.7% | 54.3% | 27.9% | 14.6% | 8.2% |
Browns | 56.2% | 14.1% | 46.3% | 21.5% | 9.8% | 4.8% |
Dolphins | 19.2% | 19.7% | 23.5% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
Bills | 12.4% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
Steelers | 24.0% | 24.1% | 22.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
Ravens | 17.2% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
Texans | 6.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Chargers | 0.7% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Bengals | 2.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Titans | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Raiders | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Jets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Jaguars | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Div. Round | Conf. Champ | Win Conf. | Win SB |
Cardinals | 88.8% | 9.4% | 91.4% | 53.6% | 30.4% | 14.5% |
Packers | 44.2% | 34.7% | 57.5% | 33.6% | 19.2% | 10.4% |
Lions | 55.5% | 33.9% | 64.3% | 30.4% | 13.6% | 5.6% |
Saints | 85.9% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 4.7% |
Eagles | 64.9% | 15.2% | 54.2% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 4.3% |
Cowboys | 34.7% | 30.0% | 36.7% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
49ers | 5.1% | 42.5% | 25.9% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
Seahawks | 6.1% | 29.0% | 17.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
Falcons | 7.6% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Panthers | 6.4% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Vikings | 0.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rams | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Giants | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Redskins | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bears | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Buccaneers | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |