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2014 NFL Playoff Odds: Colts 4th Favorite to Win Super Bowl, Best Chance of Winning Division

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The Winning Stats have simulated the rest of the season 50,000 times to see what chances each team has at making the Playoffs, winning their Division, getting to Phoenix, and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. See where the Colts sit going into Week 11.

Jeff Zelevansky

One of the features I'd like to start giving you each week is Playoff Odds, as I think it paints a really good picture of how the rest of the season should play out, and shows where teams could end up based on the schedule they have remaining. With most teams having seven games remaining, I hope to get these out each Wednesday to help with your prognostications.

A brief description of what I've done: Based on the Winning Stats I've found the probability of win for each remaining game on the schedule, and for each possible Playoff game, whether it be home or away, as well as the Super Bowl. I then simulate the rest of the season based on those probabilities, finding a Super Bowl Champion each time, and documenting where each team finished. Once you do this 50,000 times (it takes longer to get the probabilities of each possible game than to run the season this many times), you have a good estimate of the odds for each team to win the division, get a first round bye, advance in the Playoffs, and win the Super Bowl. I put them in nice tables and you can impress your friends with it.

I'm not going to have too much commentary on them, as they are pretty self-explanatory. I can say the Colts are in really good shape to win the division (best chances of anyone in NFL), and a first round Bye hinges on this weekend, for the most part: A win puts them at 50% for a Bye (Pats at 21%), a loss at just 11.4% (Pats at 62%). It's by no means a sure thing if they win this weekend, but it's highly doubtful without a win Sunday night. They also have the 4th best odds to win the Super Bowl at 9.3%, behind the Broncos, Cardinals, and Packers (but ahead of the Patriots, barely). The Raiders have a 10% chance of going 0-16. We'll watch this until they win a game.

I have tables for each division, as well as a conference look for the Super Bowl. You can sort any column by just clicking on the header.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Colts 10.5 7.9% 23.4% 25.0% 37.6% 0.2% 0.7% 93.9% 31.3% 0.9% 94.7%
Texans 7.8 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 4.0% 2.5% 6.3% 6.1% 0.9% 8.8% 14.9%
Titans 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Jaguars 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Browns 10.4 4.6% 15.1% 20.4% 16.3% 4.8% 9.3% 56.2% 19.6% 14.1% 70.3%
Steelers 9.2 1.3% 5.2% 9.9% 7.6% 8.4% 15.7% 24.0% 6.5% 24.1% 48.1%
Ravens 8.9 0.2% 1.7% 5.5% 9.7% 2.4% 8.5% 17.2% 1.9% 11.0% 28.2%
Bengals 7.5 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% 2.7% 2.6% 0.3% 3.5% 6.1%

AFC East
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Patriots 10.8 18.7% 21.6% 17.6% 10.4% 5.5% 9.1% 68.4% 40.4% 14.6% 82.9%
Dolphins 9.1 2.0% 5.2% 6.8% 5.3% 6.1% 13.6% 19.2% 7.2% 19.7% 38.9%
Bills 8.7 0.8% 2.0% 4.2% 5.5% 3.1% 8.5% 12.4% 2.8% 11.7% 24.1%
Jets 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Broncos 11.9 49.7% 18.7% 6.3% 1.5% 16.0% 4.5% 76.0% 68.3% 20.5% 96.5%
Chiefs 10.5 14.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.6% 46.4% 13.3% 23.3% 20.5% 59.7% 82.9%
Chargers 8.1 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 3.9% 7.7% 0.7% 0.4% 11.6% 12.3%
Raiders 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Saints 8.7 0.0% 0.8% 6.6% 78.5% 0.0% 0.0% 85.9% 0.8% 0.0% 85.9%
Falcons 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.1% 7.7%
Panthers 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5%
Buccaneers 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

NFC North
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Lions 11.0 16.4% 24.4% 14.4% 0.4% 21.1% 12.8% 55.5% 40.7% 33.9% 89.4%
Packers 10.6 5.8% 20.3% 15.6% 2.6% 18.0% 16.7% 44.2% 26.0% 34.7% 78.8%
Vikings 7.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 3.4% 3.8%
Bears 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%

NFC East
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Eagles 10.9 7.6% 21.8% 32.0% 3.5% 5.9% 9.3% 64.9% 29.4% 15.2% 80.0%
Cowboys 10.2 2.2% 10.6% 21.3% 0.6% 12.3% 17.8% 34.7% 12.8% 30.0% 64.7%
Giants 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8%
Redskins 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6%

NFC West
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Cardinals 12.3 64.4% 18.0% 6.3% 0.1% 6.3% 3.1% 88.8% 82.3% 9.4% 98.2%
49ers 9.3 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 21.1% 21.4% 5.1% 3.8% 42.5% 47.6%
Seahawks 9.1 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 0.1% 14.2% 14.7% 6.1% 3.9% 29.0% 35.1%
Rams 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Broncos 76.0% 20.5% 84.8% 49.4% 28.0% 16.8%
Colts 93.9% 0.9% 66.8% 34.5% 17.2% 9.3%
Patriots 68.4% 14.6% 63.7% 33.9% 17.1% 9.2%
Chiefs 23.3% 59.7% 54.3% 27.9% 14.6% 8.2%
Browns 56.2% 14.1% 46.3% 21.5% 9.8% 4.8%
Dolphins 19.2% 19.7% 23.5% 10.9% 5.2% 2.6%
Bills 12.4% 11.7% 13.0% 5.6% 2.4% 1.2%
Steelers 24.0% 24.1% 22.6% 8.0% 2.7% 1.1%
Ravens 17.2% 11.0% 12.6% 4.4% 1.6% 0.7%
Texans 6.1% 8.8% 6.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3%
Chargers 0.7% 11.6% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Bengals 2.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Titans 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Raiders 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jets 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jaguars 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Cardinals 88.8% 9.4% 91.4% 53.6% 30.4% 14.5%
Packers 44.2% 34.7% 57.5% 33.6% 19.2% 10.4%
Lions 55.5% 33.9% 64.3% 30.4% 13.6% 5.6%
Saints 85.9% 0.0% 46.0% 21.9% 10.7% 4.7%
Eagles 64.9% 15.2% 54.2% 24.5% 10.7% 4.3%
Cowboys 34.7% 30.0% 36.7% 15.3% 6.4% 2.6%
49ers 5.1% 42.5% 25.9% 11.9% 5.8% 2.5%
Seahawks 6.1% 29.0% 17.6% 7.1% 2.8% 1.1%
Falcons 7.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Panthers 6.4% 0.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Vikings 0.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Rams 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Giants 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Redskins 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bears 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buccaneers 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%