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2014 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 11

It was looking like a good Sunday/Monday last week until the primetime games happened. Yeesh. See who the Winning Stats Predictor likes for Week 11.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Winning Stats Predictor last week decided to take the last two games off for the weekend, predicting close games from the underdogs. As you know, neither the Bears or Panthers were in the game past the halfway point of the first quarter, so it was a lost cause and a 6-7 weekend Against the Spread, bringing our season total to 81-65-1, or 55.4%. In past years, this is the point in the season where we have enough data for it to be relevant and more correct, so we see a slight up-tick in record. Hopefully it continues and we keep up the nice record.

Picking games Straight Up went just 8-5, bringing that record to 94-52-1, or 64.3%. This week started out well for picking the winner, as it took the Dolphins, but the Bills decided it was too much work to actually try and score a touchdown at any point in the game, so we lost Against the Spread. Time to pick it up Sunday/Monday.

Picks for Week 11:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Dolphins 17 Bills 16 53.8%
Bears 22 Vikings 25 55.7%
Browns 22 Texans 18 61.1%
Packers 26 Eagles 22 60.7%
Chiefs 31 Seahawks 25 65.7%
Panthers 27 Falcons 26 50.8%
Saints 30 Bengals 18 77.9%
Redskins 27 Buccaneers 23 61.3%
Rams 17 Broncos 29 78.3%
Giants 19 49ers 26 69.0%
Chargers 28 Raiders 23 63.3%
Cardinals 22 Lions 17 63.1%
Colts 30 Patriots 29 52.3%
Titans 25 Steelers 27 54.8%

SuperContest was 2-3 last week, bringing us to 28-22. What was working early on in the season is now regressing back to its normal hit rate, so have to be mindful and pick the right plays here. Did nail the Jets though last week.

  • Chiefs -1.5 vs. Seahawks
  • Broncos -9.5 at Rams
  • Cardinals -2.5 vs. Lions
  • Patriots +3 at Colts
  • Titans +6 vs. Steelers

Survivor Pick: It took until the 4th quarter, but the Cardinals got home for us. This week I could take the Broncos, but I'm going to hold out a bit longer on them. I'm going to go with the Saints hosting the Bengals. The Saints hadn't lost a home game since 2012 until last week, so I can't imagine they'll lose two in a row. I'd really like Cincinnati to win for other reasons, but I just can't see it happening Sunday.

USED: Jets, 49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Cardinals