2014 NFL Week Twelve: Inside the Colts Numbers

It was one of those weeks for the Colts where you just thank whatever higher-being you believe in that your favorite NFL team plays in one of the crappiest divisions in football, so they get to play the Jaguars twice a season. Sunday's 23-3 win for the Colts was by no means a masterpiece, but the Colts took care of business at home against a clearly inferior opponent.

I usually like waiting until after some charts to talk about stats, but the Turnovers need to be addressed up top. The Jaguars are one of the worst teams in forcing turnovers in the NFL, yet the Colts still couldn't help themselves, and it starts with Andrew Luck. I'm not sure how many more of those "I know I can make a play even though I'm being tackled by 8 guys" plays I can take. At this point it's a coaching problem, as they've let him continue to make those bone-headed decisions time and again. There were clearly "protection problems" in the first half Sunday, and Luck had barely any time to throw, but when your 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage and being thrown down by three guys, it's time to protect the ball and not try to find someone close by to throw it to. They (thankfully) don't affect the outcome against a team like the Jaguars, but they sure will in the Playoffs, when you absolutely cannot give your opponent extra possessions. Just go down. It'll be ok.

Overall the Colts had six fumbles on the day, which they lost 3. According to Elias, it was the largest margin of victory by a team with at least six fumbles since 1997, when Tampa Bay committed six fumbles in a 27-7 win over New England. Remember, it's completely random who recovers fumbles, but is not random when it comes to fumbling. Six fumbles is bad. Really bad.

I like to talk about streaks in these articles, and Reggie Wayne extended his NFL-best streak of games with 3+ catches to 81 consecutive Sunday afternoon. However, I really think it should have ended Sunday. Two of the three catches came in the final minutes of the game, the third of which came after the two-minute warning where all the Colts had to do was take knees to end the game. In fact, Chuck Pagano had to explain to Jaguars Head Coach Gus Bradley why they were throwing the ball there, just so they didn't think anything nefarious was going on. I understand what Pagano was trying to do, but it's seriously cheapening a record that should stand without "manipulation" like this. Wayne isn't a guy who goes out there just wanting to extend this streak; he has this streak because he's been an excellent route-runner and pass catcher his entire career. While he may have lost a step this season, I hate seeing this record not end naturally, in a game where the Colts played pretty "meh", Wayne had some struggles, and the Colts won.

How do the numbers look from Sunday? Let's take a look.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 12:

Adjusted Stats for Week 12:

Some thoughts:

• The Offense played a pretty average game against a pretty average Defense. They produced average statistics.
• You can see how bad the Turnovers were, 28th in the league, and easily could have been worse. Obviously it's the most concerning thing with this Colts team.
• They also, once again, didn't fare too well inside the Orange and Red Zone, scoring barely half of the possible points. This stat has slowly declined throughout the season, and I'm not sure why. They need to go back to the drawing board and figure out how to score TDs when they get close. Let's hope the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw doesn't really tank these stats.
• The best stat of any of them was RB Success Rate, ranking 4th in the league this week. Nice to see them bounce back after an awful week last week against New England.
• The Defense also bounced back nicely, ranking 5th overall in the league this week. Honestly, it's what we should see against a really bad Offense.
• They were especially good in the Orange/Red Zone, giving up just 3 points on two trips. In fact, the field goal they got was after a Luck fumble that put them in the Red Zone to start the drive, so a nice job to keep them out of the end zone.
• The Field Position looks bad, but other than the fumble mentioned above, and the first one where the Jaguars took over around midfield (where they promptly gave the ball back to the Colts), it was a nice day. They downed a punt perfectly at the 1, even as Pat McAfee was being run into. We also saw some nice things from Josh Cribbs in the return game.
  

Season Stats through Week 12 (Adjusted):

Some thoughts:

• The Colts Defense remains tops in the NFL in Time of Possession per Drive and Average Starting Position, despite the struggles this week, and ranks 2nd in 3rd/4th down. However, they're 26th in the Red Zone and 31st in Yards per Carry. Strange they can be so good in spots, and so bad in others.
• Offense is now over two turnovers per game, whereas they were under one per game at this time a year ago. I think this is going to be the downfall of the 2014 Colts, because they do everything else Offensively very well.

Week-to-Week Comparisons:

This game was closer to being how they played earlier this season on their five game winning streak. It also was a complete opposite performance than the first Jacksonville game, where the Offense dominated and the Defense wasn't very good. You can also see it was the worst offensive performance we've seen from the Colts this season. That's not a very good sign either. They have five weeks to get the ship turned back around. Let's hope they do.