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2014 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 10

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Nice bounce-back week picking games Against the Spread last week. Time to keep the train rolling.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

A week after by far the worst performance of the year by the Winning Stats Predictor, last week saw us get back above .500, going 7-5-1 (Vikings -3 as a Push), and bringing our season record to 75-58-1, or 56.3%. We're still in great shape. This week is also off to a good start (as you'll see below), as the Browns +6 hit on Thursday night with an easy win (seeing as the Bengals couldn't be bothered to score 6 themselves). Picking games Straight Up was a little more troublesome, going just 7-6. Several underdogs we liked that weren't supposed to win, but covered, meant a week that looked bad (this includes the Patriots, by the way). Season total there is 86-47-1 (63.3%).

I got a couple questions on the format last week, and instead of replying there I thought I'd explain it a bit more here so more people read it. The Predictor looks at each of our stats, gets them to a value between 0 and 1, based on how the two teams match-up in each stat, then weights them based on stat importance, and gets a final score. Games more recent have a higher weight than games further away, as it's a truer sense as to how that team is playing now, without losing what they've done earlier in the season. It also doesn't account for injuries, so the Cowboys-Cardinals game was tough with the absence of Tony Romo. What I've noticed, however, is the QB is the only position where it really makes a difference. The first week without Adrian Peterson for the Vikings was really rough, but the next week it was back to normal. Usually when we have a QB injury I just ignore the game (and certainly don't bet it), unless the numbers still favor a bet even if the starter was playing.

Also, the Probability column is for winning the game, and not Against the Spread. I don't include any spread numbers here as I think it would be too confusing, but I base everything off of the Westgate SuperContest lines. They are widely available, and while some change after Wednesday afternoon, they are usually within a point of the closing line. I use some different criteria for actually picking which games to bet on (or include below in my top 5 picks), but I like keeping most of those to myself. One trend this year that I jumped on about a month ago was how well the computer is picking Chiefs games. It's 8-0 ATS. Hope they hit again this week.

Picks for Week 10:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Bengals 24 Browns 22 56.1%
Ravens 27 Titans 23 60.5%
Bills 21 Chiefs 28 68.4%
Lions 15 Dolphins 19 61.1%
Saints 28 49ers 25 56.2%
Jets 27 Steelers 31 60.8%
Jaguars 23 Cowboys 26 58.5%
Buccaneers 27 Falcons 25 55.5%
Raiders 18 Broncos 30 79.8%
Cardinals 27 Rams 19 68.6%
Seahawks 29 Giants 24 64.0%
Packers 30 Bears 26 59.9%
Eagles 25 Panthers 21 61.1%

SuperContest picks went 3-2 last week, and now sit at 26-19, just one game off of 60%. Let's hope for another good week:

  • Dolphins +2.5 at Lions
  • Chiefs -2 at Bills
  • Titans +9.5 at Ravens
  • Jets +5 vs. Steelers (Really? Really.)
  • Giants +9.5 at Seahawks

Survivor Pick: Another relatively easy win last week with the Bengals. This week we're heading west, and while I don't like picking divisional games, the Cardinals are rolling this year, so we'll take the Cardinals over the Rams, who won last week in San Francisco.

USED: Jets, 49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals