A week after by far the worst performance of the year by the Winning Stats Predictor, last week saw us get back above .500, going 7-5-1 (Vikings -3 as a Push), and bringing our season record to 75-58-1, or 56.3%. We're still in great shape. This week is also off to a good start (as you'll see below), as the Browns +6 hit on Thursday night with an easy win (seeing as the Bengals couldn't be bothered to score 6 themselves). Picking games Straight Up was a little more troublesome, going just 7-6. Several underdogs we liked that weren't supposed to win, but covered, meant a week that looked bad (this includes the Patriots, by the way). Season total there is 86-47-1 (63.3%).
I got a couple questions on the format last week, and instead of replying there I thought I'd explain it a bit more here so more people read it. The Predictor looks at each of our stats, gets them to a value between 0 and 1, based on how the two teams match-up in each stat, then weights them based on stat importance, and gets a final score. Games more recent have a higher weight than games further away, as it's a truer sense as to how that team is playing now, without losing what they've done earlier in the season. It also doesn't account for injuries, so the Cowboys-Cardinals game was tough with the absence of Tony Romo. What I've noticed, however, is the QB is the only position where it really makes a difference. The first week without Adrian Peterson for the Vikings was really rough, but the next week it was back to normal. Usually when we have a QB injury I just ignore the game (and certainly don't bet it), unless the numbers still favor a bet even if the starter was playing.
Also, the Probability column is for winning the game, and not Against the Spread. I don't include any spread numbers here as I think it would be too confusing, but I base everything off of the Westgate SuperContest lines. They are widely available, and while some change after Wednesday afternoon, they are usually within a point of the closing line. I use some different criteria for actually picking which games to bet on (or include below in my top 5 picks), but I like keeping most of those to myself. One trend this year that I jumped on about a month ago was how well the computer is picking Chiefs games. It's 8-0 ATS. Hope they hit again this week.
Picks for Week 10:
SuperContest picks went 3-2 last week, and now sit at 26-19, just one game off of 60%. Let's hope for another good week:
- Dolphins +2.5 at Lions
- Chiefs -2 at Bills
- Titans +9.5 at Ravens
- Jets +5 vs. Steelers (Really? Really.)
- Giants +9.5 at Seahawks
Survivor Pick: Another relatively easy win last week with the Bengals. This week we're heading west, and while I don't like picking divisional games, the Cardinals are rolling this year, so we'll take the Cardinals over the Rams, who won last week in San Francisco.
49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals