:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/44345062/460468622.0.jpg)
For the 9th time in the last 12 years (I think that's right), the Colts are AFC South Champions, completing a season sweep of the division Sunday with a 17-10 win over the Texans. It means the Colts remain unbeaten against Houston in Indianapolis (13-0), they've now won twelve straight divisional games (beating the lowly Titans in a couple weeks should make that 13), and they've still never lost the second game against any of the three teams under Chuck Pagano. There's a little bit of the Colts being pretty good, and a little bit more of the other teams just being really bad (read: sans QB), but any way you put it, the Colts have dominated the division over the last 3 years.
I've only watched the first half, as I was out all day Sunday, and decided to go to bed last night after the first half, mostly because the second half looked painfully boring and would only cause me to get upset at the lack of Offense, so I just skipped it. It does keep my perfect record intact of the Colts winning when I can't watch, dating back to 2011 (where they lost a lot). I'm hoping I didn't miss much, but I probably won't find out.
This was the third game this season where the Colts Defense did not give up a touchdown, joining the Bengals and Jaguars game. You might think that's the most the Colts have had in a season since 1998, but they've actually had two seasons with four (2005, 2009), and in 2008 they had five games where they held their opponent out of the end zone. Maybe I'm just not remembering that team as having a good Defense, but I would have never guessed 2008 would have had the most in recent history. They also had 5 in 1989, but I'm guessing 90% of you reading were either not alive or not Colts fans yet to be able to remember them.
A lot was made of Reggie Wayne's streak of consecutive games with at least three catches ending last week, but a less-publicized one came to an end Sunday. With their 17 points, it ended a streak of 20 consecutive games of scoring at least 20 points, ranking 11th all time and falling five games short of the NFL record. If they could have done anything in the second half they could have easily extended that streak. Like Reggie's streak, they'll just have to start over next week, and hopefully sometime in 2016 we'll be talking about them setting the record.
We'll see how well I can figure out how the Colts looked without watching them by looking at the stats. I'm guessing they'll match-up pretty nicely, unfortunately.
Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 15:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 68.8% | 14 | 56.0% | 6 | N | N | 6-1 |
| ANPY/A | 4.528 | 17 | 4.115 | 13 | N | N | 8-0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 22 | 2 | 4 | N | N | 9-0 |
| Yds/Drive | 23.17 | 24 | 26.27 | 14 | N | N | 6-3 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:24.6 | 23 | 2:49.5 | 20 | N | N | 7-5 |
| Yds/Play | 4.344 | 25 | 4.313 | 7 | N | N | 5-5 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 81.0% | 3 | 42.9% | 10 | Y | N | 5-1 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.67 | 17 | 1.27 | 10 | Y | N | 5-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 16.7% | 31 | 26.3% | 10 | N | N | 2-3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 26.6 | 16 | 18.7 | 3 | N | N | 10-1 |
| 3 and Outs | 4 | 18 | 3 | 16 | N | Y | 7-4 |
| RZ Eff | 71.4% | 14 | 0.0% | 1 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.333 | 17 | 6.091 | 20 | N | Y | 4-4 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.703 | 10 | 0.985 | 16 | Y | N | 5-0 |
| RB Success | 54.2% | 5 | 51.4% | 25 | N | N | 3-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.93 | 12 | 3.34 | 10 | N | N | 2-6 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 18 | 8 | 11 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (448) | 315 | 71 | 167 | ||||
Adjusted Stats for Week 15:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 67.6% | 19 | 57.0% | 4 | N | N | 6-1 |
| ANPY/A | 4.696 | 20 | 3.721 | 8 | N | N | 8-0 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 23 | 2.0 | 8 | N | N | 9-0 |
| Yds/Drive | 21.85 | 26 | 26.18 | 13 | N | N | 6-3 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:23.7 | 21 | 2:44.4 | 18 | N | N | 7-5 |
| Yds/Play | 4.430 | 25 | 4.445 | 7 | N | N | 5-5 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 82.8% | 4 | 47.0% | 14 | Y | N | 5-1 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.52 | 20 | 1.31 | 8 | Y | N | 5-2 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 19.2% | 30 | 26.7% | 8 | N | N | 2-3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 25.9 | 19 | 19.8 | 4 | N | N | 10-1 |
| 3 and Outs | 4.7 | 23 | 3.0 | 20 | N | Y | 7-4 |
| RZ Eff | 79.3% | 13 | 5.1% | 1 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.003 | 22 | 5.860 | 20 | N | Y | 4-4 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.852 | 13 | 1.092 | 11 | Y | N | 5-0 |
| RB Success | 49.9% | 7 | 55.0% | 29 | N | N | 3-4 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.99 | 11 | 3.60 | 15 | N | N | 2-6 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 26 | 4 | 12 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (448) | 332 | 61 | 154 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- This was not a performance from a Playoff-bound Offense (for the second week in a row), but it was enough to get the job done. Ranking 26th in the league this week just won't cut it.
- Where did it go wrong? We talked on Thursday that the Colts should have been able to move the ball between the 20s against the Texans, once they got the initial First Down, but that just didn't play out Sunday. Outside of two or three drives, the Colts couldn't move the ball at all.
- The biggest disappointment was definitely on 3rd/4th down, where the Colts were just 2/12. You can't move the ball when you can't convert 3rd downs. Without watching I can't put my finger exactly on what happened, but clearly something went wrong that never got corrected. That can't happen against Playoff teams.
- The good thing (and a reason the Colts won) was they converted their decent drives into points, ranking 4th in Orange Zone Efficiency for the weekend. If the Colts can't move the ball, they certainly need to cash in every opportunity they get, which they did Sunday.
- I made a point of saying Thursday that when Turnovers happened, they needed to not let the Defense score. They did, and it made the game closer than it should have been. I've given up thinking they can go a game without a couple turnovers. Just give the Colts Defense a chance to bail them out. They've been pretty good at it.
- The Colts didn't allow the Texans inside the Red Zone, and only let them inside the Colts 35 once, which is quite impressive, even with a 3rd string QB playing 2/3 of the game and without Andre Johnson. It wasn't long ago that it didn't matter who was playing QB against the Colts Defense, they would shred it like they were Peyton Manning. Now the Colts Defense completely shuts down bad QBs. It's really nice.
- The Defense overall played the 4th best game of the weekend, which seems right based on what I saw on TV. Again I'll reiterate: Manhandling the teams they are supposed to are a very, very good sign. I know the Defense has looked really bad against the better QBs, but they are outstanding against the crappy Offenses.
- The Texans running game ran well, even though they haven't been that good doing it this year. It's worrisome if the Colts get behind in a game.
Season Stats through Week 15 (Adjusted):
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 73.8% | 6 | Packers | 66.2% | 3 | Bills | 99-8 | 0.925 |
| ANPY/A | 6.888 | 6 | Broncos | 5.218 | 10 | Bills | 111-11 | 0.910 |
| Turnovers | 2.28 | 30 | Packers | 1.82 | 15 | Bills | 109-26 | 0.807 |
| Yds/Drive | 32.84 | 9 | Saints | 28.31 | 12 | Bills | 92-17 | 0.844 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:39.0 | 21 | Seahawks | 2:25.0 | 2 | Bills | 99-22 | 0.818 |
| Yds/Play | 5.913 | 5 | Broncos | 5.254 | 21 | Broncos | 84-28 | 0.750 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 59.8% | 8 | Patriots | 56.2% | 21 | Rams | 62-18 | 0.775 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.85 | 12 | Saints | 1.57 | 7 | Bills | 84-21 | 0.800 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 42.1% | 9 | Cowboys | 32.3% | 2 | Bills | 98-21 | 0.824 |
| Avg Start Pos | 30.0 | 16 | Dolphins | 26.8 | 2 | Patriots | 107-17 | 0.863 |
| 3 and Outs | 3.76 | 17 | Dolphins | 4.77 | 4 | Broncos | 62-29 | 0.681 |
| RZ Eff | 66.9% | 11 | Raiders | 65.2% | 17 | Rams | 63-34 | 0.649 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.626 | 18 | Saints | 5.257 | 3 | Bills | 71-24 | 0.747 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.749 | 11 | Jaguars | 0.849 | 14 | Redskins | 59-38 | 0.608 |
| RB Success | 44.4% | 14 | Seahawks | 47.4% | 26 | Lions | 52-55 | 0.486 |
| Yds/Carry | 4.24 | 11 | Seahawks | 4.60 | 29 | Lions | 55-51 | 0.519 |
| Overall | 10 | Packers | 9 | Bills | ||||
Some thoughts:
- The Overall rankings really didn't change much, staying at 10th and 9th on Offense and Defense respectively. They rank 4th overall behind the Broncos, Patriots, and Seahawks, just ahead of the Packers.
- I'm sure not many of you have followed the Bills closely this year, but their Defense has been spectacular all season, not just against the Packers. They rank 1st in our top 5 categories and 7 of our top 9. They also are the top ranked Fantasy Defense (flying completely under the radar), and you know if you've been playing in any of our leagues, I most likely have them. I just wish they had one more win.
- Average Starting Position is the 3rd most important stat this year, and it gets even more important when we get to the Playoffs historically, so it's crucial for the Colts to keep pinning their opponents deep, and getting those extra yards in the return game.
Week-to-Week Comparison:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Broncos | 275 | 384 | 371 | 170 | 268 | 208 |
| 2 | Eagles | 205 | 301 | 265 | 142 | 363 | 287 |
| 3 | Jaguars | 5 | 151 | 18 | 6 | 335 | 96 |
| 4 | Titans | 34 | 45 | 5 | 83 | 125 | 68 |
| 5 | Ravens | 162 | 40 | 46 | 165 | 25 | 37 |
| 6 | Texans | 76 | 175 | 87 | 102 | 225 | 120 |
| 7 | Bengals | 177 | 18 | 34 | 137 | 10 | 14 |
| 8 | Steelers | 153 | 436 | 356 | 193 | 431 | 368 |
| 9 | Giants | 198 | 159 | 156 | 216 | 194 | 179 |
| 10 | BYE | ||||||
| 11 | Patriots | 192 | 430 | 372 | 196 | 408 | 351 |
| 12 | Jaguars | 245 | 12 | 47 | 242 | 55 | 99 |
| 13 | Redskins | 146 | 179 | 142 | 115 | 251 | 147 |
| 14 | Browns | 381 | 17 | 162 | 364 | 62 | 192 |
| 15 | Texans | 315 | 71 | 167 | 332 | 61 | 154 |
Two straight weeks the Offense has played their two worst games of the season. Now that they have the Division clinched, they need to try some stuff to figure out just what is going on, or else it's going to be a one-and-done visit in the Playoffs. They need to get back to what they were doing early in the season. A shake-up in the Offensive Line would be a nice start. I really don't think it matters too much whether they're the 3 or 4 seed, so experiment and find the rhythm again.