2014 NFL Week Thirteen: Inside the Colts Numbers

One of the reasons I like looking at a whole myriad of stats is because it paints a more complete picture than a single stat, and that includes the scoreboard. If you didn't watch Sunday's 49-27 Colts blowout of the Redskins, you'd look at the scoreboard, say "Yep, just like I thought", and move on without investigating any further. Doing this for this game, however, would have you miss out on just how bad the Colts played at times, and you'd know that the Colts easily could have won by 40+ if they played well consistently through the 60 minutes.

This isn't going to be a bitching article talking about only the negatives. On the contrary, the Colts did some things excellently Sunday (like they were supposed to, which is a good sign), and I'll absolutely point those out. Also, there's nothing wrong with a comfortable 20+ point win that was really never in jeopardy. It was just one of those performances, like the one last week against the Jaguars, that will likely cause the Colts to be ousted from the Playoffs when they have to play a non-dysfunctional team. I'll give you a couple examples:

• I said Thursday that the Redskins were the 2nd worst team forcing Turnovers in the entire league. So what happens? Two turnovers in their first five plays. Of course, because it's the Redskins, they are only down 3-0 after those, and the Colts score TDs on three of their next four drives to go up 21-3. In 2012 and 2013, the Colts liked to challenge themselves by seeing just how far behind they could get before roaring back and winning. This year it's how many Turnovers they can commit and still win. Sunday was 3.
• The touchdown play for the Redskins on the first drive of the second half was just abysmal. They let the statue Colt McCoy (he was sacked six times) break not one, not two, but three tackles in the open field before finding Logan Paulsen for the score. Just imagine that against an actual mobile QB.
• Trent Richardson is a drive killer. Runs of 1, 1, -1, 2, 2, 2, 3, and 2 yards, and an 0-8 success rate just don't get it done. If the coaching staff (or front office) wants to play by CFL rules and only get three downs, then Richardson should continue to get the ball, because that's what they're essentially doing when he gets the ball.

I don't blame the Colts for sleep walking through part of that game. We saw how the Offense could just score at will against a porous secondary, so maybe they just didn't have the same edge they normally do, but it's a bit concerning (especially the Turnovers) that they're happening when they absolutely shouldn't be.

Elias had a fun stat today on the last two bombs thrown by Andrew Luck to Coby Fleener and Donte Moncrief:

Andrew Luck threw five touchdown passes in the Colts' 49-27 win over the Redskins, and he saved the best for last. Luck's last two TD passes covered 73 yards to Coby Fleener and 79 yards to Donte Moncrief. Only three other players in NFL history threw five or more TD passes in one game, including two of 70 yards or longer: Charley Johnson of the Cardinals in 1962 (vs. Cowboys), Joe Namath of the Jets in 1972 (vs. Colts), and Joe Ferguson of the Bills in 1979 (vs. Jets).

More in the stats on the passing day, but it was pretty awesome, even with the interception. I think it's interesting this hasn't happened since the late '70s, especially with the emphasis on passing nowadays.

Most of Sunday was very good, so let's jump into the numbers and find out just where the Colts shined.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 13:

Adjusted Stats for Week 13:

Some thoughts:

• Every time the Colts put the ball in the air they gained over 12.5 yards, which was completely expected against one of the worst pass Defenses in the NFL, and one playing without both starting CBs. It was almost like the Colts just baited them into the right situation before just unloading deep. It's pretty cool to be able to score at will like that.
• The Time of Possession per Drive was bad (31st), but you know why that was, right? Because of bullet point #1. When you're scoring long TDs, you aren't going to have the ball for very long. The coaching staff likes to use Time of Possession as a key stat. Sunday shows you it can be very meaningless in some situations.
• The Colts scored six Offensive Touchdowns, but only got inside the Redskins 35 twice, and only got into the Red Zone once. I'm not knocking those numbers at all. Just interesting that they scored so often on big plays. They were perfect on both trips in the Orange Zone and their lone trip in the Red Zone, which is good. Sorry Adam Vinatieri, but it's good when you aren't kicking field goals.
• The Colts Yards per Carry looks great (over six!), but they only ran it 21 times and Boom Herron had 49 on one play, so it's a bit skewed. We talked about Richardson's day already. Running the ball late is important, as is holding onto the football Boom.
• The Redskins got a bunch of penalty yards out of the Colts, like they've done to everyone else this year, even though as a whole the Colts don't commit all that many penalties. Wish I could explain that one.
• The Defense was pretty average, but did do well in forcing six Three and Outs on the day. That was good to see.
• I think some of the numbers are a bit worse because they were put back on the field so quickly after long touchdowns, not really giving them ample time to rest up. They'll have to just suck it up going forward if it keeps happening, because there's nothing wrong with scoring too fast.
• I'm most disappointed in the passing number, because McCoy isn't an NFL Quarterback, yet he was made to look like one on Sunday. The Colts won't see many QBs like that in the Playoffs.

Season Stats through Week 13 (Adjusted):

Some thoughts:

• After their bombs-away approach Sunday, the Colts now lead the NFL in Yards per Play at just over 6.1. They're also the 3rd best passing team (behind the Packers and Broncos), which is excellent to see, and could easily be higher without the dumb interceptions.
• Despite a terrible Field Position game, the Colts still lead the NFL in Average Starting Position Defensively, and rank 2nd in Time of Possession per Drive and 3rd/4th Downs.
  
• Both units rank in the top 10, and rank 5th overall. You really can't be all that upset about that.

Week-to-Week Comparison:

By the numbers, Sunday's performance was almost identical to the Texans game back in Week 6. The Colts had stretches where they looked unstoppable, but did enough dumb things that it kept the Texans in the game. This is what I mean when I say doing these things against good teams will come back to bite the Colts eventually. It almost did against Houston (who'd I'd consider a slightly above-average team).