2014 NFL Week Sixteen: Inside the Colts Numbers

For those of you old enough to remember the mid-90s (sadly, I'm guessing many of you reading this don't), VH-1 had a series Behind the Music, where it would chronicle a band or group from their beginning, through their big hits, and where they were now. Without fail, about 40-45 minutes into the show, we always found out where they hit "rock bottom".

On Sunday in Dallas, the 2014 Colts hit rock bottom. It's been a steady fall of late, but they hit the bottom with a large thud, losing 42-7 in a game that would have been better if they'd just stayed in Indy and not seen the glitz and glamor of Jerry's World.

Nobody over on West 56th Street will ever admit it, but it was clear from the beginning that the Colts wanted to try some different things, giving some guys a week off if they had nagging injuries (and they showed), but I don't think they went into Sunday giving 100% effort at winning the game. And that's ok, they didn't need it. Yes, with a win they'd still be alive for a First Round Bye, but it's a long shot the Broncos will lose at home to the Raiders. They wanted to see how different things looked against a Playoff-caliber team, and everything they tried failed miserably. Well, at least all of the outcomes were terrible.

The fake punt call early in the game was a really nice call, again being used to force future opponents to always have a guy on the gunner, for fear they'd do the exact same thing (and hopefully a perfectly thrown ball 35 yards away will be caught next time). It's the kind of thing I'd expect to see in a preseason game when you're working on stuff that you probably wouldn't use in a high-leverage situation, but it puts it on film and causes the opponent to prepare for it, thus taking away valuable practice time that could be spent on other things. I really like Special Teams Coordinator Tom McMahon, and I like that Chuck Pagano is willing to take some chances with these guys.

The point at which it became clear they didn't care about winning, and should have yanked Andrew Luck, is with three minutes to go in the first half, down 28-0 on four consecutive TD drives by Dallas, they punted on 4th and 3 from their own 38. Yes, the Colts had 1 first down at that point, but if they would have converted, continued the drive, and scored 7 (I know, far-fetched, but roll with me), they could have run the half down, been down 21, and gotten the ball to start the 3rd quarter, where a TD means you're right back in it. Yes, it's still a huge hill to climb on a day they didn't seem to care that much about winning, but they easily could have made it interesting. They instead punted, and they should have pulled Luck right after that series.

Back after the Bengals game in Week 7 I talked about how that was the best Defensive game the Colts have played, based on the Winning Stats, since 2001. Well, the Offense decided to jump into that pool Sunday, as it was the worst game on Offense the Colts have had since 2001. Here's the list of really crappy games, topped off by Sunday's debacle. Note all the games from 2011, the snow game in Buffalo in 2009, and a couple games from last season:

I don't really have an explanation, just that everything was really bad. You can see just how bad below.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 16:

Adjusted Stats for Week 16:

Some thoughts:

• The Offense played the 12th worst game of the season Sunday, and actually two of those came Sunday as well (Texans and Buccaneers were worse. And Houston won!).
• Yes the Colts committed Turnovers again, but they didn't start until it was already 28-0, so they weren't the reason the Colts lost. Just mark them down for at least two per game. They don't seem to care.
• I'd also like to point out the RB Success Rate for the Colts running game: a Blutarsky. An 0-for-10 showing where they only got one net yard. Now you all know by now I'm the least-likely advocate for a running game, but you have to get more than one yard on 14 carries, and you have to have at least a couple successful runs.
  
• The Colts Defense did a wonderful job stopping the league-leading Dallas rushing attack though! Just over 3 yards per carry! Huzzah! <whispers in my ear> What's that? They got nearly 16 yards, on average, every time they dropped back to pass? That's why they destroyed the Colts? Well, I'll be.
• The Cowboys were above the league average on both Offense and Defense in our top 13 stats, something I don't remember ever seeing. It was an obliteration.

Season Stats through Week 16:

Some thoughts:

• After beating the Bengals in Week 7, the Colts ranked 2nd Offensively and 5th Defensively. Now they rank 13th and 11th respectively. Schedules were roughly equivalent for those stretches. The Colts just got a lot worse.
• In raw numbers, the Colts lead the league on 3rd/4th Down at 33.0%, ahead of the Bills at 33.8%. However, the Colts have played a slightly easier schedule of teams on 3rd/4th Down, so they sit just one percent behind them in our Adjusted stats. Have I mentioned the Bills Defense is excellent?

Week-to-Week Comparison:

Unless they've purposefully been holding back certain plays on Offense, three games makes a trend, and not a good one. The Colts plateaued in that game against Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Never say never in the NFL, but I have a hard time believing this team is going very far in the Playoffs.

Whew, made it through without dropping my laptop. Glad dropping things isn't contagious.