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Another winning week in Week 13 for the Winning Stats Predictor, going a nice 9-7, bringing our season record up to 104-88, or 54.2% (did some clean-up on lines from SuperContest last week, so it may not match exactly from what I had last week. It's right now). 10-6 each week is the goal, but 9-7 will win money betting each game, so I'll definitely take it. Picking winners was great as well, going 12-4, bringing our season total up to 123-68-1, or 64.3%.
This week got off to a rocky start, as the Predictor had the Bears beating the Cowboys, which obviously didn't happen Thursday night. Should have known though, as Thursday nights have been brutal this year. This week you'll notice a lot of road teams Against the Spread, which is a pretty normal thing for the Predictor. I've found the "3 points for home team" is really just a point, maybe a point and a half max nowadays. Teams are getting much better at playing on the road, and it's something a majority of people haven't quite adjusted for yet. It's not uncommon to get 75% road teams picked Against the Spread by the Predictor, like this week. Those rare home teams, especially when they are underdogs, you have to jump on though. They're my best bets every single year.
Picks for Week 14:
| Home | Score | Away | Score | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 27 | Cowboys | 25 | 53.9% |
| Browns | 21 | Colts | 23 | 56.5% |
| Bengals | 26 | Steelers | 24 | 53.7% |
| Titans | 23 | Giants | 28 | 61.7% |
| Redskins | 22 | Rams | 30 | 70.3% |
| Saints | 31 | Panthers | 25 | 67.8% |
| Vikings | 21 | Jets | 20 | 51.0% |
| Lions | 24 | Buccaneers | 15 | 72.1% |
| Jaguars | 16 | Texans | 24 | 69.5% |
| Dolphins | 27 | Ravens | 22 | 62.8% |
| Broncos | 23 | Bills | 19 | 61.2% |
| Cardinals | 20 | Chiefs | 21 | 50.1% |
| Eagles | 22 | Seahawks | 27 | 63.0% |
| Raiders | 15 | 49ers | 18 | 59.1% |
| Chargers | 27 | Patriots | 31 | 61.4% |
| Packers | 30 | Falcons | 27 | 59.5% |
SuperContest went 3-2 last week, bringing our season total up to 37-28. Off to an 0-1 week so far with the Bears, so here's the other four:
- Browns +3.5 vs. Colts
- Rams -2.5 at Redskins
- Chiefs PK at Cardinals
- Raiders +7.5 vs. 49ers
Survivor Pick: The Dolphins survived as our first road team, so we're going back to a home team this week. The Lions have the best chance to win according to the Predictor this week, so we'll go with them at home against Tampa Bay.
USED: Jets, 49ers, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Cardinals, Saints, Packers, Dolphins