This post comes from Justin Becker of FantasyFootballOverdose.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NBAandNFLInfo or on the Fantasy Football Overdose Google+ Page, and for more NFL Fantasy Football Rankings visit Fantasy Football Overdose.
The Indianapolis Colts have been pretty solid on offense through the first two weeks of the 2014 NFL season. Fantasy football owners really can’t complain, either. Heck, Trent Richardson was probably left for dead after putting up just 20 rushing yards in week one, and then he somehow revived himself with 70+ rushing yards in week two.
Despite some solid success, Indy is 0-2 and looking at an 0-3 hole as they walk into a week three matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. That threat is there, but only because the impossible does seem to happen from time to time.
Make no mistake, though. The Colts will win in week three, and they’ll probably win big.
The supposedly vaunted and rebuilt Jaguars defense hasn’t looked great through the first two weeks. They did hold the Philadelphia Eagles in check for one half in week one, but so did the Colts in week two. Philly went on to drop 34 points on Jacksonville in the second half alone, while the Washington Redskins pummeled them in week two, 41-0.
The moral of the story? Jacksonville can’t help but hurt themselves on offense, and they can’t make up for that enough on defense.
Jacksonville Can’t Run the Ball
Everyone wants to come down on Toby Gerhart as some slow, sluggish running back, but he’s not all that bad. In fact, he has a bum ankle and he still looked like he could have done a solid job on the week two tape. Unfortunately, his offensive line is playing like trash and his fullbacks and tight ends keep missing key blocks. That’s awesome news for the Colts. Indianapolis normally isn’t an elite fantasy team defense, but they are this week. Start that unit with confidence.
T.Y. Hilton Has Been in Hiding
Hilton was pretty much a ghost in week one with Aqib Talib on him, and while he caught six balls in week two, he still wasn’t looking like an elite option. That should change this week, if only for this week. Jacksonville doesn’t have the worst defense in the world, but it’s inconsistent and constantly put in horrible positions. Indy is bound to connect on some deep routes eventually, too, as Hilton is just too explosive and Andrew Luck is just too good. As long as the Colts are persistent, I like them to find ways to get Hilton involved more than he has been to this point. That should make for a splash game and WR2 value at the worst for him this week.
Trent Richardson Lives, But…
Ahmad Bradshaw remains the thorn in his side. Jacksonville has some decent initial resistance to the ground game, but they get pushed around eventually - especially when they’re down and get tired. Both are inevitable in this matchup, even with this game being in Jacksonville.
T-Rich is the starter and did out-carry Bradshaw last week, but Bradshaw was the main back in passing down and goal-line situations. That won’t change. The Colts clearly love to run the ball (which is crazy when you see how good Luck can be), so both of these guys will get work. However, if you need to choose between the two, you probably should use Bradshaw. He’s simply more explosive, more versatile and more reliable.
Hey There, Dwayne Allen
It should probably go without saying that Andrew Luck has a decent shot at elite production this week. The matchup and timing are everything here, and it looks like a great week to trust in him (although he’s been quite solid both weeks, anyways). Dwayne Allen may have spurned you after catching zero balls last week. It was disappointing, but he played well in week one and was simply called on to block more than usual as Indy ran the ball a ton last week. They’ll still run the ball a good amount, but this is a good matchup for him (Niles Paul ruined the Jags last week) and he should be way more involved this time around. Fellow tight end Coby Fleener is a dark horse to have his best game of the year here, too, but Allen is on the field way more due to being a superior blocker, so he’s the guy to use of the two.