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Time for some more Winning Stats Season Previews, this time it's the West Divisions. You can find our preview of the North divisions here.
NFC West
The NFC West was the best division in football in 2013, and according to the Winning Stats, that'll carry over into 2014. Let's look at the Playoff seeding and dive in:
| NFC West | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Total |
| Seahawks | 10.5 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 19.5% | 12.7% | 75.0% |
| 49ers | 9.7 | 11.8% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 18.9% | 15.1% | 60.5% |
| Cardinals | 9.6 | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 18.6% | 15.1% | 58.2% |
| Rams | 7.9 | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 23.6% |
Three teams have a better than 10% of landing the #1 seed, and all three of those teams are over a 50/50 chance of making the Playoffs, with the 4th hanging right around the .500 mark. The Seahawks look to be the clear leader once again, making the Playoffs 3/4 of the time. The Cardinals just missed out on the Playoffs a year ago, and the Winning Stats have them just a tick behind the 49ers, who I think are in the last year of their current "window". I'm a fan of the Cardinals this year, as you'll see in a bit.
Playoff and Division Odds:
| Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Division | Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict | Predict | Odds | Yes | No | |
| Seahawks | 42.7% | 32.3% | 47.6% | 76.5% | 28.6% |
| 49ers | 26.5% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 71.4% | 33.9% |
| Cardinals | 24.6% | 33.7% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 80.0% |
| Rams | 6.2% | 17.4% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 80.0% |
As we saw above, the Winning Stats think the Cardinals have >50% chance of making the Playoffs, so we'll fire on a +300 make the Playoffs bet for them. Both the Seahawks and Rams are almost dead on their Vegas number (which means avoid them), and the 49ers is a bit off, but not enough to my liking. I like the difference to be much bigger before spending money. Division odds are in the correct order, a bit off on some, but overall nothing jumping out as an outlier. No plays here.
Wins Over/Under:
| Team | O/U | O Odds | U Odds | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 11 | 53.5% | 53.5% | 29.9% | 49.4% |
| 49ers | 10.5 | 53.5% | 53.5% | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Cardinals | 7.5 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| Rams | 7.5 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
I'm firing on the Cardinals Over 7.5 and laying the -150, and that's all here. I jumped on the Cardinals last year about Week 4 and the Winning Stats still love them (and Bruce Arians). We'll see if they come through for me.
AFC West
You're going to have to brace yourself for the Winning Stats predictions for the AFC West, as the team everyone thinks will win this division only came in second. Wanna know more? Here are the seeding predictions:
| AFC West | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Total |
| Chargers | 9.7 | 11.9% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 69.6% |
| Broncos | 9.0 | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 56.6% |
| Chiefs | 7.8 | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 32.1% |
| Raiders | 5.1 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 3.4% |
Yes, the Winning Stats predict the Chargers to win the AFC West over the Broncos. I challenge you to find any mainstream person not living in Southern California that'll make that prediction, because everyone still believes in Peyton Manning. Here are my thoughts: The Chargers played really well to finish the season last year, won a Playoff game, and are another entire offseason learning an Offense tailored to fit their personnel. It might be a giant stretch to think they'll win this division, but nobody here should be shocked if they come out on top.
Playoff and Division Odds:
| Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Division | Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict | Predict | Odds | Yes | No | |
| Chargers | 48.8% | 20.8% | 16.7% | 30.8% | 74.0% |
| Broncos | 34.6% | 22.0% | 75.0% | 81.8% | 23.5% |
| Chiefs | 15.3% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 76.5% |
| Raiders | 1.3% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 12.5% | 93.3% |
Obviously because the Broncos are such huge favorites, getting +500 on the Chargers winning the division is an easy bet for us here, as well as making the Playoffs (+225). Nothing else is jumping out. Should probably point out the Raiders have the lowest chance of anyone in the NFL in making the Playoffs. It's going to be bad news for them this year.
Wins Over/Under
| Team | O/U | O Odds | U Odds | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 8 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 73.4% | 12.8% |
| Broncos | 11.5 | 51.2% | 55.6% | 9.3% | 90.7% |
| Chiefs | 8 | 47.6% | 58.3% | 35.8% | 44.2% |
| Raiders | 5 | 58.3% | 47.6% | 40.8% | 37.6% |
I only see one play here, and it's the Broncos U11.5 (-125). Even at the premium price this seems like a good play. If you asked any "expert" they'll tell you to bet over on anything less than 5 and under on anything over 11, as the NFL is built to play in the middle. While I don't expect Manning to get hurt, an injury sidelining him would make this an easy cash.
Let's recap the West Divisions:
- Cardinals making Playoffs: +300
- Cardinals Over 7.5: -150
- Chargers Winning Divisions: +500
- Chargers making Playoffs: +225
- Broncos U11.5: -125