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It's time to preview the two South Divisions through the eyes of the Winning Stats. Take a look back at our North Preview, West Preview, and our East Preview.
NFC South
Last season the Carolina Panthers came from seemingly nowhere to win the NFC South, but as most of you know, no team has ever won back-to-back NFC South titles. Even if the Panthers were projected to be as good as they were a year ago, it's a safe bet some other team will win the division. Who does the Winning Stats predict will win the division? The same team everyone else thinks will:
| NFC South | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Total |
| Saints | 11.2 | 32.3% | 25.7% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 86.4% |
| Panthers | 8.8 | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 41.2% |
| Falcons | 7.3 | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 16.2% |
| Buccaneers | 6.8 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 11.1% |
The Saints are an overwhelming favorite, winning the division nearly 3/4 of the time. They are also projected to win 11 games, which is tied for the most of any team by the Winning Stats. Needless to say it really likes the Saints. The Panthers have a decent chance of making the Playoffs at just over 40%, while the Buccaneers and Falcons are long-shots. That only means those two teams really do have a chance in the topsy-turvy NFC South.
Playoff and Division Odds:
| Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Division | Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict | Predict | Odds | Yes | No | |
| Saints | 73.6% | 12.9% | 63.6% | 69.2% | 40.0% |
| Panthers | 17.2% | 24.0% | 17.4% | 32.3% | 73.0% |
| Falcons | 5.5% | 10.6% | 18.2% | 33.3% | 72.2% |
| Buccaneers | 3.7% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 22.2% | 83.3% |
Most of these numbers are lining right up with what Vegas is offering, so there's no play for me. The only one I'd think about is betting the Saints to make the Playoffs, but I'm not interested in laying -225 on it. So we'll pass on all of these.
Wins Over/Under
| Team | O/U | O Odds | U Odds | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 10.5 | 53.5% | 53.5% | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| Panthers | 8.5 | 40.8% | 63.6% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Falcons | 8.5 | 45.5% | 60.0% | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| Buccaneers | 7 | 58.3% | 47.6% | 36.2% | 43.7% |
Once again, it's almost dead-on with Vegas, so the NFC South sees no bets from the Winning Stats.
AFC South
The AFC South was widely seen as the worst division in the NFL a year ago, but good news! The Winning Stats sees the NFC East as being one game worse than them this year. Can any of the other three teams challenge the Colts? Let's find out:
| AFC South | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Total |
| Colts | 10.1 | 15.7% | 16.9% | 18.8% | 19.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 79.5% |
| Titans | 7.9 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 33.8% |
| Texans | 6.2 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 9.4% |
| Jaguars | 6.1 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 8.6% |
The Colts appear to still be the class of the division, predicted to win 10 games and win the division nearly 71% of the time. You'll also notice it's predicting some decent improvement from both the Texans and Jaguars, but still not at Playoff level. The Titans appear to be a middle-of-the-pack 8-8 team, which is about what they are every other year. The Winning Stats predict the Colts to make the Playoffs almost 80% of the time. I like those odds.
Playoff and Division Odds:
| Team | Div. Title | Wild Card | Division | Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict | Predict | Odds | Yes | No | |
| Colts | 70.9% | 8.6% | 61.5% | 69.2% | 35.1% |
| Titans | 19.6% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 25.0% | 80.0% |
| Texans | 5.0% | 4.4% | 26.7% | 33.9% | 71.4% |
| Jaguars | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 94.1% |
The most interesting number here is the Texans odds to make the Playoffs, which has been steadily rising throughout the Preseason, and almost to a level it makes sense to be the "No" here, but much like I said about the Saints, I really don't want to lay -250 against it unless it's really obvious. The Colts appear to be in better shape than what you'd have to pay in Vegas, but we'll stay away from that one as well.
Wins Over/Under:
| Team | O/U | O Odds | U Odds | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 9.5 | 55.6% | 51.2% | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Titans | 7 | 51.2% | 55.6% | 59.1% | 23.1% |
| Texans | 7.5 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| Jaguars | 5 | 57.4% | 48.8% | 61.9% | 19.9% |
We have a bet here! Like I said above there's been some movement on the Texans being a good team this year, so let's go opposite of that line movement and go Texans U7.5 (+120). The Colts number, as well as the other two teams, appear to be pretty close, so no further bets from us.
Let's recap the South Divisions:
- Texans U7.5: +120